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MSST

Mississippi State 28 at Arkansas 21

ARK
2017 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2017 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:18 · Blake Johnson punt for 35 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior−25.8Home team on offense+7.8Score differential+3.9Garbage-time factor+2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:18: Aeris Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +9.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:35: Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd for a TD MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +23.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:57: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 37 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +34.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:01: Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 41 — MSST win probability +14.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +28.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:46MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:53ARK 4th & 7 at MSST 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:42MSST 4th & 7 at ARK 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51MSST 4th & 16 at ARK 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:18ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:02MSST 4th & 10 at ARK 35, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:17ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 27, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.5%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MSST 4th & 5 at ARK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:35MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−3.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00MSST 4th & 3 at ARK 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    30.8%−5.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:52ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:10MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:59ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−2.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:18ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.0%−4.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:01MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−11.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−16.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 12:46ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:17MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:18MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:35ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:57MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:17MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
16.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
16.4%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
16.4%
Blake Johnson punt for 29 yds , Team returns for no gain to the MisSt 36 Team fumbled, recovered by Ark Reid MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:5417% → 18%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
17.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 20 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
17.2%
David Williams run for 13 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
18.1%
David Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
17.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 2 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-6
17.9%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by McTelvin Agim for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 13 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+7
18.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 7 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
18.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
19.4%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+24
19.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 24 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
19.7%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 47Similar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+1
19.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 48Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-4
19.5%
Austin Allen sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+11
19.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Kendrick Jackson for 11 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
19.3%
Blake Johnson punt for 40 yds, downed at the MisSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FUMBLE TD
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
24.5%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 5 yards Nick Gibson fumbled, forced by McTelvin Agim, recovered by Ark Briston Guidry for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 5:4476% → 69%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
24.2%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-2
23.9%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
24.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 12 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
23.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
23.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+11
23.8%
Aeris Williams run for 11 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
23.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+6
23.8%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
23.8%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+46
30.8%
Jace Christmann 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4233% → 34%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
32.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
32.5%
T.J. Hammonds run for no gain to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-5
32.1%
Austin Allen sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 25
0
34.0%
Blake Johnson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
33.3%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
32.3%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
32.8%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
50
+1
32.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+8
32.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
32.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-6
32.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Ark 37 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+9
33.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 9 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-9
32.6%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Grant Morgan for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 47Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
33.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
42.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to David Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 11Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+9
42.4%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 2
OWN 20
-5
41.9%
Ty Storey run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 7
OWN 15
0
41.0%
Blake Johnson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:4557% → 65%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
50
+2
42.9%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
42.9%
N/A pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+13
43.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 13 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
42.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
42.0%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
43.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+17
44.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 17 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
35.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 18 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
40.5%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
40.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to T.J. Hammonds for 4 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
39.4%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-10
38.5%
Team run for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:2663% → 73%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
37.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
37.0%
Jesse Jackson run for 7 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
27.5%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 6 yds · 1:3233% → 35%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
33.2%
De?Vion Warren rush for 15 yards to the AR45, out-of-bounds (Johnathan Abram), PENALTY AR holding (C. O'Grady) 10 yards to the AR20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+2
32.8%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+22
32.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 22 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
35.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 10 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
37.1%
Austin Allen rush for 5 yards to the MS41, out-of-bounds, PENALTY AR holding (Brian Wallace) 10 yards to the AR44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-8
35.0%
Austin Allen sacked by Montez Sweat and Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 66 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
31.9%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+3
31.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
31.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
30.5%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
29.2%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+6
29.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 6 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
28.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 19 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
28.0%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
27.8%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
28.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald Todd, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 25
0
30.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5339% → 67%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
38.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to T.J. Hammonds, PENALTY MS pass interference (Leo Lewis) 12 yards to the AR37, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
39.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
41.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+11
39.0%
Austin Allen run for 11 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
42.3%
Deon Stewart run for 8 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+1
42.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-10
42.0%
Devwah Whaley rush for 4 yards to the MS36 (Jamal Peters), PENALTY AR holding (Jake Raulerson) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 11
50
+11
39.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 11 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
42.5%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
43.5%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 1 David Williams fumbled, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
43.6%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd for a TD MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
57.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
58.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
57.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-3
58.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
61.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
73.7%
Austin Allen run for 11 yds to the MisSt 47 Austin Allen fumbled, forced by Johnathan Abram, recovered by MisSt Marquiss SpencerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0839% → 36%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
61.0%
Nick Fitzgerald rush for no gain to the MS47 (De?Jon Harris;Bijhon Jackson), PENALTY MS holding (Darryl Williams) 10 yards to the MS37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 20
OWN 37
0
64.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 20
OWN 37
0
64.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald Todd, broken up by Randy RamseySimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 20
OWN 37
+17
65.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 17 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
63.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
74.2%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+9
74.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Hayden Johnson for 9 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
74.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
74.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+9
73.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 9 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Hayden Johnson for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
75.1%
David Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
75.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by J.T. GraySimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
73.8%
Blake Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+25
75.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 25 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
73.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
73.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
75.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
76.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
81.3%
Jordan Jones run for 7 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
82.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for no gain to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-4
80.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
79.4%
Blake Johnson punt for 31 yds, downed at the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 3:0622% → 58%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
77.8%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+1
75.5%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+4
76.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
76.1%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
76.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+37
41.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 37 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:3954% → 54%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
53.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Cameron Dantzler) to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
54.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
56.9%
Jonathan Nance run for 1 yd to the Ark 44 Jonathan Nance fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
54.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to La'Michael PettwaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:4460% → 96%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
39.8%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
40.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
38.9%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
42.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
37.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 8 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+6
37.2%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
37.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Ark 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
37.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Ark 6Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
4.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
10.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 2 yds to the Ark 32 lat. to Deon Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 32 lat. to Cheyenne O'Grady for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 32 lat. to Johnny Gibson Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 32 lat. to La'Michael Pettway for 19 yds to the Ark 32 to Devwah Whaley for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:57
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 37 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
-34.6
TD · Q4 0:17
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
-28.6
TD · Q3 4:35
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd for a TD MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Connor Limpert KICK)
+23.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com