Try the model
UK

Kentucky 44 at Vanderbilt 21

VAN
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · FirstBank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:29 · Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 27 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense−38.7Score differential−19.0Garbage-time factor−11.5Pregame prior+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:15: Benny Snell Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +7.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Austin MacGinnis 40 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +5.6 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:57: Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +15.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:29: Sihiem King run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +7.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:53: Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:06UK 4th & 7 at UK 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:14VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:15VAN 4th & 8 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:46UK 4th & 11 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:09UK 4th & 14 at VAN 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−4.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00UK 4th & 1 at VAN 22, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%−2.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−7.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:57VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 18, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:29VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:56UK 4th & 2 at VAN 21, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−3.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:56VAN 4th & 4 at midfield, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:06UK 4th & 6 at VAN 46, up 23
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.9%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:59VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 45, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:37VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:14UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:15UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:57UK Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:29UK Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:14VAN Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:53UK Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:13VAN Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the Vandy 21 TEAM fumbled,Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-3
59.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+14
59.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 14 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
59.1%
Sam Loy punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
59.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Ryan WhiteSimilar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+16
59.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 16 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
59.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 7 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-5
58.9%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
59.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
59.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Arnold Tarpley IIISimilar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 7
OWN 42
+4
59.1%
Miles Butler punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 18 , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 4 yds to the Vandy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3INT
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:0059% → 60%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+42
59.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 27 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
59.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Denzil Ware return for 1 yd to the Kent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
58.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+7
58.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
58.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 44Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+4
58.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+4
58.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 4 yds to the Vandy 38 Stephen Johnson fumbled, forced by LaDarius Wiley, recovered by Vandy Oren BurksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:5059% → 63%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
59.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 17 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
59.9%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 1 yd to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
59.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 7 yds to the Kent 37Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+37
63.3%
Ralph Webb run for 37 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2338% → 43%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
62.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 13 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
62.1%
Sihiem King run for 7 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
61.7%
Sihiem King run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
50
-1
61.6%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 49Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+4
62.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+25
61.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 25 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
56.6%
Sihiem King run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
59.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jamauri Wakefield for 6 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
59.4%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Sam Loy punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:5042% → 51%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
58.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 5 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
57.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 6 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
57.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
57.0%
Stephen Johnson run for 4 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
57.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
56.9%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+14
57.0%
Stephen Johnson run for 14 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
56.7%
[SH], Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to C.J. Conrad (Oren Burks), PENALTY VANDY personal foul (Nifae Lealao) 15 yards to the VANDY22, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
48.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
51.5%
Trent Sherfield run for 9 yds to the Vandy 38Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+10
53.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 10 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
53.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+9
52.8%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-7
53.4%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Joshua Paschal for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 8
50
0
51.2%
Sam Loy punt for 49 yds, downed at the Kent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:3550% → 51%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
49.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the Kent 3Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+10
49.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 10 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+38
49.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 38 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
46.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 8
OPP 47
-3
46.6%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 11
50
0
47.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 11
50
0
48.9%
Miles Butler punt for 45 yds, downed at the Vandy 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:0048% → 50%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
47.5%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 6Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+20
47.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 5 yds to the Vandy 11 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Jamar Watson) to the Vandy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
48.3%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+45
49.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Derrick Baity return for 45 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0658% → 57%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
42.4%
Sihiem King run for no gain to the Vandy 20Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
42.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Joejuan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-4
43.0%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Oren Burks for a loss of 4 yards to the Vandy 24Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+42
42.7%
Austin MacGinnis 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
43.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Mike Edwards return for no gain to the Vandy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5761% → 71%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
39.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+9
39.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 9 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
38.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
38.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Vandy 25Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+3
34.2%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Vandy 22Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+40
28.6%
Austin MacGinnis 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0367% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
33.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 20 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
32.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-1
32.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+35
32.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 35 yds Lynn Bowden Jr. fumbled, forced by Tre Herndon, recovered by Kent Charles Walker for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
22.1%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 24Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-6
21.9%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Denzil Ware for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 18Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 16
OWN 18
0
21.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Ralph WebbSimilar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
21.8%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds , Charles Walker returns for no gain to the Kent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:5186% → 95%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
13.6%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
13.6%
Sihiem King run for 2 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+32
13.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 32 yds to the Vandy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
12.9%
Sihiem King run for 4 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+13
12.9%
[SH], Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Tre Herndon) 13 yards to the VANDY2, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
12.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 7Similar
Q3 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.3%
Sihiem King run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:157% → 10%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
6.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 12 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
7.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 7 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-7
6.8%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Denzil Ware for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 37 VANDERBILT Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+9
6.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 9 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+27
6.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 27 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
8.1%
[SH], PENALTY VANDY false start (Bailey Granier) 5 yards to the UK32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+4
8.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 4 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+7
7.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 7 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+7
7.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 7 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
10.2%
Kyle Shurmur run for 14 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
2.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:405% → 12%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
4.5%
[SH], Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan (Derrick Baity), PENALTY UK pass interference (Derrick Baity) 4 yards to the VANDY33, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
4.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 16 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
5.2%
Dallas Rivers run for 6 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
5.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for 5 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
5.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trey EllisSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-4
5.2%
Kyle Shurmur run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 44 Kyle Shurmur fumbled, recovered by Vandy Kyle ShurmurSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+16
5.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 16 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
5.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
5.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 6 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+5
5.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 5 yds to the Kent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
7.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 17 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
11.9%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (2 Yards) to the Kent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 7:1796% → 98%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
4.5%
Sihiem King run for 7 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
4.2%
Stephen Johnson run for 8 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
4.0%
Sihiem King run for 1 yd to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+16
4.0%
Sihiem King run for 1 yd to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dayo Odeyingbo) to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
3.9%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+3
3.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 3 yds Garrett Johnson fumbled, forced by Cameron Tidd, recovered by Kent Drake JacksonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+12
3.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 12 yds to the Vandy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
3.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Logan Stenberg) to the Vandy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+2
3.8%
Sihiem King run for 2 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+7
3.8%
Sihiem King run for 7 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-5
3.8%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Kyle Meadows) to the Vandy 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+9
3.9%
Sihiem King run for 9 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+39
1.6%
Austin MacGinnis 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
1.9%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (Phil Hoskins) to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+6
2.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 6 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
2.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+10
1.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 10 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
2.0%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by T.J. Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 13
OWN 41
+9
1.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Donaven Tennyson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 4
50
0
2.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Chris WestrySimilar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 4
50
0
2.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3999% → 99%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
50
+2
0.9%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
0.9%
Asim Rose run for 4 yds to the Vandy 44Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-2
0.6%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 46Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
0.6%
Miles Butler punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24INT
11 plays · 60 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
1.0%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+5
1.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 5 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+7
1.1%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
1.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Dallas Rivers for 14 yds to the Vandy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
1.1%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the Vandy 40 Kyle Shurmur fumbled, recovered by Vandy Bailey Granier , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 19
OWN 40
+5
1.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Dallas Rivers for 5 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
1.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 14
OWN 45
+26
1.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 26 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
1.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trey Ellis for 8 yds to the Kent 21Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
1.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trey EllisSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+2
1.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Jordan Griffin return for 2 yds to the Kent 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:57
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-15.6
TD · Q2 11:15
Benny Snell Jr. run for 22 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q3 8:29
Sihiem King run for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com