2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreUNM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:38 · Shane Tripucka punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Romell Jordan at the NMex 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:32: Nick Starkel pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 10 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:01: Keith Ford run for 12 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +2.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:27: Nick Starkel pass complete to Damion Ratley for 1 yd for a TD NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +2.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:21: Nick Starkel pass complete to Damion Ratley for 36 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:13: Daryl Chestnut run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jason Sanders KICK) — TA&M win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UNM made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 14:32UNM 4th & 5 at UNM 30, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snapGo for it11.6%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.6%average punt
- Q1 7:32UNM 4th & 16 at TA&M 35, down 13Close callPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.2%−0.216% to convertField goal11.4%45% to makePuntTheir call11.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:01UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 38, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.5%−0.426% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 7:31UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 28, down 27Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:31UNM 4th & 11 at UNM 18, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q2 1:24TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 25, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q3 15:00UNM 4th & 2 at UNM 32, down 41Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 12:40TA&M 4th & 4 at TA&M 21, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%average punt
- Q3 10:55UNM 4th & 7 at UNM 35, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 9:50TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 46, up 41Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:08UNM 4th & 8 at TA&M 46, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goal0.1%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:52TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 14, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:56UNM 4th & 5 at TA&M 45, down 41Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%41% to convertField goal0.0%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:46TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 18, up 41Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 3:49UNM 4th & 9 at UNM 31, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:38TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 22, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 14:32TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call88.5%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:32TA&M Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.1%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:01TA&M Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.9%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:27TA&M Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.5%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:21TA&M Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:40TA&M Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:24UNM Touchdown, down 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:13UNM Touchdown, down 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:08TA&M Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTA&MDrive 1TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2890% → 90%
UNMDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.1%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Chris Davis Jr. for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD16 plays · 81 yds · 5:1490% → 91%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
89.8%
Keith Ford rush for 2 yards to the TAMU21 (GIRGLE, Jacob), PENALTY TAMU holding (Koda Martin) 9 yards to the TAMU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+19
89.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Christian Kirk for 19 yds to the TexAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+21
89.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Damion Ratley for 21 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-10
89.9%
Keith Ford rush for 4 yards to the NM44 (OCASIO, Austin;HART, Alex), PENALTY TAMU holding (Koda Martin) 10 yards to the TAMU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+23
89.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Camron Buckley for 23 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+14
89.9%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Camron Buckley for 14 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
90.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 10 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 4PUNT12 plays · 40 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
90.0%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 7 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+15
90.0%
JORDAN, Lamar pass incomplete to REED, Patrick (Derrick Tucker), QB hurry by Z. Henderson, PENALTY TAMU pass interference (Antonio Howard) 15 yards to the TAMU43, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
89.7%
Lamar Jordan pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for no gain to the TexAM 29Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 13
OPP 32
-3
90.0%
Lamar Jordan sacked by Justin Dunning for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5TD8 plays · 97 yds · 2:2591% → 94%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+8
90.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 8 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
90.8%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Christian Kirk, PENALTY NM pass interference (GIRGLE, Jacob) 14 yards to the TAMU42, 1ST DOWN TAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+46
91.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 46 yds to the NMex 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 14:01
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
94.0%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD10 plays · 56 yds · 3:0094% → 97%
Q2 12:27
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+11
94.0%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 11 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
94.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 7 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+13
94.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 13 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+11
94.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 11 yds to the NMex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+13
94.4%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 13 yds to the NMex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Damion Ratley for 1 yd for a TD NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 8PUNT RETURN TD5 plays · 7 yds · 1:563% → 2%
UNMDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
98.2%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Chris Davis Jr., broken up by Myles JonesSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-1
98.1%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 18 NEW MEXICO Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
98.2%
Lamar Jordan pass incomplete to Q' Drennan, broken up by Myles JonesSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
98.2%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10TD3 plays · 70 yds · 1:0598% → 99%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+38
98.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 38 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
98.2%
Kendall Bussey run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 36 Kendall Bussey fumbled, recovered by TexAM Kendall BusseySimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+36
98.7%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Damion Ratley for 36 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11INT5 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 5:21
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
98.7%
Lamar Jordan pass intercepted Myles Jones return for no gain to the TexAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12TD5 plays · 77 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
99.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 14 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 15 yds to the NMex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
99.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Christian Kirk for 35 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
99.1%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Christian Kirk for 6 yds to the NMex 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.1%
Shane Tripucka punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 22 , Romell Jordan returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
UNMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
UNMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 0%
Q3 10:55
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon Ausbon, broken up by Jalin BurrellSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 8 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
99.6%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron Buckley, broken up by Jacob GirgleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20TD15 plays · 80 yds · 7:490% → 0%
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Jay Griffin IV for 2 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.6%
Tevaka Tuioti pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 2 yds to the NMex 34Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+15
99.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Daylon Mack) to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for no gain to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+41
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 41 yds to the NMex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 3 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+7
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 7 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
99.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 6 yds to the NMex 18Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:08
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+5
99.9%
TUIOTI, Tekava pass complete to OWENS, Tyrone for 4 yards to the NM36 (Anthony Hines), PENALTY TAMU offside defense (Keeath Magee) 5 yards to the NM37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+15
99.9%
TUIOTI, Tekava rush for loss of 2 yards to the NM35 (Micheal Clemons), PENALTY TAMU face mask (Micheal Clemons) 15 yards to the TAMU48, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Tevaka Tuioti pass incomplete to Patrick Reed, broken up by Myles JonesSimilar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
UNMDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
50
-4
99.9%
Tyrone Owens run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMex 45 Tyrone Owens fumbled, forced by Justin Madubuike,Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 10
50
+5
99.9%
Coltin Gerhart pass complete to Delane Hart-Johnson for 5 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:46
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Shane Tripucka punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Romell Jordan at the NMex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:49
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Corey Bojorquez punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Roshauud Paul at the TexAM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Jacob Kibodi, broken up by Aaron BlackwellSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+5
100.0%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Kendrick Rogers for 5 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
100.0%
Shane Tripucka punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Romell Jordan at the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:01
Keith Ford run for 12 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q2 9:27
Nick Starkel pass complete to Damion Ratley for 1 yd for a TD NEW MEXICO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q1 7:32
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 10 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+0.8