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TENN

Tennessee 17 at Missouri 50

MIZ
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:26 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 1:17: Aaron Medley 48 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +2.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 1:15: Will McBride pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 19 yds for a TD (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +11.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:18: Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +5.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:56: Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 50 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +7.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:34: Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 23 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MIZ 4th & 4 at MIZ 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:08TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:15TENN 4th & 14 at TENN 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:17TENN 4th & 5 at MIZ 30, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.0%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:00TENN 4th & 19 at TENN 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:25MIZ 4th & 11 at TENN 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−2.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:25TENN 4th & 2 at MIZ 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00TENN 4th & 11 at MIZ 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:51TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:15MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:31TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:48MIZ 4th & 5 at TENN 6, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:32MIZ 4th & 10 at TENN 21, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:14TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 42, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:27MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 23, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:15MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:19TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:52MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:15TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:56MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:34MIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:21MIZ Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
83.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
83.9%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Misso 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
83.9%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
+3
83.9%
Corey Fatony punt for 50 yds , Emmanuel Moseley returns for 3 yds to the Tenn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
83.7%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+7
83.7%
Will McBride run for 7 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
83.7%
Will McBride pass complete to Ty Chandler for 7 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-2
83.6%
John Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 42Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
83.6%
Will McBride pass incomplete to John Kelly, broken up by Thomas WilsonSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
83.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 3TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 2:3383% → 84%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
83.1%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Moore, J'Mon, PENALTY UT offside off-setting, PENALTY MU pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
83.0%
Ish Witter run for 10 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+23
83.1%
Ish Witter run for 23 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
83.3%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+14
83.3%
Ish Witter run for 14 yds to the Tenn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
83.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 8 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+4
83.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 4 yds to the Tenn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
83.3%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Tenn 7Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
83.9%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.5%
Will McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.5%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
83.6%
Will McBride sacked by Joshuah Bledsoe for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 21Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+16
83.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 46 yds , Richaud Floyd returns for 16 yds to the Misso 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2384% → 82%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
83.8%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+70
81.9%
Drew Lock pass intercepted for a TD Nigel Warrior return for 70 yds for a TD (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2782% → 84%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
81.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 7 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
81.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 7 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
82.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
82.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
82.0%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+10
81.8%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Moore, J'Mon, PENALTY UT pass interference (Martin, J.) 10 yards to the UT37, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
82.1%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+31
83.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 31 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:3517% → 20%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
83.1%
Will McBride pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 16 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
82.8%
Will McBride run for 13 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
82.5%
Will McBride pass complete to John Kelly for 8 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+1
82.4%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
82.4%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
82.2%
MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 5
OPP 30
0
82.1%
Will McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
82.1%
Will McBride pass complete to John Kelly for no gain to the Misso 30Similar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
82.4%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson, broken up by Kaleb PrewettSimilar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
80.3%
Aaron Medley 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1081% → 80%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
80.7%
Witter, Ish rush for 2 yards to the MU27 (Bituli, D.), PENALTY MU holding (Ploudre, Adam) 10 yards to the MU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
80.6%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
80.2%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
79.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 47 yds, downed at the Tenn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 19%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
80.0%
Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+5
79.4%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
79.5%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
80.1%
Will McBride run for no gain to the Tenn 33Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 15
OWN 33
-4
80.6%
Will McBride sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 19
OWN 29
0
80.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:1479% → 82%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
79.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 11 yds to the Misso 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
79.2%
Larry Rountree III run for 11 yds to the Misso 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
79.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
80.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+19
79.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Larry Rountree III for 19 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
80.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 9 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+6
80.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 6 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
80.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Tenn 18 MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+4
80.5%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
80.7%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore MISSOURI Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
80.0%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:25
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+41
82.1%
Tucker McCann 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD
19 plays · 66 yds · 6:0418% → 30%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
81.6%
Will McBride pass complete to John Kelly for 2 yds to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
81.5%
Will McBride pass complete to Jeff George for 5 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+3
81.0%
Will McBride run for 3 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
81.0%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 4
50
+5
80.5%
Will McBride run for 5 yds to the Misso 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
80.5%
Carlin Fils-aime run for no gain to the Misso 45Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
80.6%
Will McBride pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 7 yds to the Misso 38Similar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
80.4%
Will McBride pass complete to John Kelly for 4 yds to the Misso 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
79.8%
Will McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
79.8%
Will McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+8
81.1%
Will McBride run for 8 yds to the Misso 26Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+22
82.2%
Will McBride pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 22 yds to the Misso 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
80.6%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Misso 4Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
80.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (John Kelly) to the Misso 19Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
81.6%
Will McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
70.0%
Will McBride pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 19 yds for a TD (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:5775% → 85%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.7%
Larry Rountree III run for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
75.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+64
73.9%
Larry Rountree III run for 64 yds to the Tenn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
78.1%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Moore, J'Mon, PENALTY UT pass interference (Moseley, E.) 6 yards to the UT2, 1ST DOWN MU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.3%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd to the Tenn 1Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 1 yd for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
83.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
81.2%
Will McBride sacked by Marcell Frazier for a loss of 10 yards to the Tenn 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+43
81.5%
Will McBride run for 43 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
79.2%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
79.2%
Will McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-3
79.5%
Will McBride sacked by Tre Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Misso 43Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
81.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 28 yds, downed at the Misso 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:2981% → 90%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
81.4%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+20
81.4%
Ish Witter run for 20 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
82.5%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Misso 48Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
83.2%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
50
+50
90.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 50 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
88.7%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
88.6%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
88.7%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Jeff GeorgeSimilar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
89.1%
Trevor Daniel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.5%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
90.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
90.1%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
89.6%
Corey Fatony punt for 48 yds, downed at the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
89.1%
Will McBride pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 15 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
88.6%
Will McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
88.8%
Will McBride run for 3 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
88.7%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
89.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 2:2891% → 97%
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+52
91.3%
Ish Witter run for 52 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
92.0%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (Tre'Vour Simms) to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+9
91.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 9 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+7
92.0%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
92.0%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+1
92.0%
Ish Witter run for 1 yd to the Tenn 23Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
97.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 23 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
97.3%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Tyler ByrdSimilar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
97.3%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+5
97.3%
Will McBride pass intercepted Anthony Sherrils return for 5 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:5798% → 98%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+5
97.6%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Tenn 23 TENNESSEE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Tenn 23Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+12
97.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 12 yds to the Tenn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
97.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 5 yds to the Tenn 6Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
97.8%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
97.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Albert OkwuegbunamSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
98.2%
Tucker McCann 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
97.9%
Will McBride pass intercepted Kaleb Prewett return for 4 yds to the Misso 29 MISSOURI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23FG
11 plays · 29 yds · 3:1098% → 100%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
50
+7
98.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Richaud Floyd for 7 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
98.4%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+7
98.4%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
98.4%
Ish Witter run for 3 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
98.4%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+4
98.4%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the Tenn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
98.4%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+5
98.7%
Lock, Drew pass incomplete to Moore, J'Mon (Moseley, E.), PENALTY UT offside (Butler, M.) 5 yards to the UT14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+3
98.7%
Drew Lock run for 3 yds to the Tenn 21Similar
Q4 14:32
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
99.8%
Tucker McCann 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
99.9%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 25 yds to the Tenn 45 Carlin Fils-aime fumbled, forced by Anthony Sherrils, recovered by Misso Anthony SherrilsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 25TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
99.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 21 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.8%
Larry Rountree III run for 4 yds to the Tenn 20Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 20 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Will McBride pass complete to John Kelly for 1 yd to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+19
99.9%
Will McBride pass complete to Eli Wolf for 19 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.8%
John Kelly run for 8 yds to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-2
99.8%
John Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-2
99.8%
Will McBride pass complete to John Kelly for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
99.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Micah Wilson run for 3 yds to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
99.9%
Dawson Downing run for 1 yd to the Misso 24Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-1
99.9%
Micah Wilson sacked by Alexis Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 23Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Corey Fatony punt for 53 yds, downed at the Tenn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28FUMBLE
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Will McBride pass complete to Josh Palmer for 5 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Ty ChandlerSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+13
99.9%
Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
99.9%
Will McBride run for 9 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Tim Jordan run for 5 yds to the Misso 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Will McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
99.9%
Will McBride pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 11 yds to the Misso 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
99.9%
Will McBride sacked by Tre Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 32 Will McBride fumbled, recovered by Misso Kobie Whiteside , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 29END OF GAME
10 plays · 60 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Dawson Downing run for 9 yds to the Misso 41Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+12
99.9%
Dawson Downing run for 12 yds to the Tenn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Micah Wilson pass incomplete to Dominic CollinsSimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
99.9%
Micah Wilson run for 13 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.9%
Micah Wilson pass complete to Dominic Collins for 9 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Dawson Downing run for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-5
99.9%
MISSOURI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+29
99.9%
Micah Wilson run for 29 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
99.9%
Micah Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 6Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:15
Will McBride pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 19 yds for a TD (Aaron Medley KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q3 10:56
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 50 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q3 4:34
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 23 yds for a TD (Tucker McCann KICK)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com