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ALA

Alabama 31 at Mississippi State 24

MSST
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald Todd
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:26: Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +8.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:03: Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +18.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:13: Jace Christmann 25 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +12.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:49: Damien Harris run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +29.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:25: Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 26 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +45.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:52MSST 4th & 7 at ALA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:58ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:03MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:09ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:28MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:26ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:41ALA 4th & 12 at MSST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−8.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:50ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−3.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:13MSST 4th & 7 at ALA 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    44.2%−16.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:55ALA 4th & 4 at MSST 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.4%−1.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:30MSST 4th & 3 at ALA 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.5 ptsPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−8.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:03ALA 4th & 17 at MSST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−11.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−27.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:09MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−14.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 3:37MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:43ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:39MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:26ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:03MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:49ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:25ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.1%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
15 plays · 34 yds · 6:0214% → 17%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q1 14:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
14.4%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Rashaan Evans for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 14:04
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+15
14.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
14.8%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
15.1%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
15.3%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
15.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+9
15.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 9 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
16.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 8 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
16.6%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
16.9%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-5
17.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Nick Fitzgerald) to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
17.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 36 yds, downed at the Alab 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4783% → 82%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
17.2%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+1
17.4%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 4
OWN 11
-6
17.8%
Jalen Hurts sacked by J.T. Gray for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 5Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
18.4%
JK Scott punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 3:1319% → 24%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
18.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 24 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
19.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
19.7%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+10
19.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the Alab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
20.7%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
23.9%
Aeris Williams run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4277% → 81%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
23.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+63
23.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 63 yds to the MisSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
22.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 5:5121% → 33%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
21.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
21.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Kylin Hill for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+10
21.8%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Johnson, Justin, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Jones, Hootie) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
23.1%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+12
23.0%
Aeris Williams run for 12 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
24.1%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
24.5%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+7
24.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 7 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
25.5%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+9
26.0%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+23
26.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 23 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
32.5%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5970% → 77%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Hale Hentges for 9 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
29.6%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
30.6%
Josh Jacobs run for no gain to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+61
31.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 61 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.6%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1226% → 26%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+12
26.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 12 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
26.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-3
26.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 13
OWN 14
+6
26.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 7
OWN 20
-6
26.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 56 yds , Xavian Marks returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Alab 18 Xavian Marks fumbled, recovered by Alab Xavian MarksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3175% → 73%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
25.5%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
25.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
26.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
27.4%
JK Scott punt for 49 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:3229% → 30%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
28.6%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
29.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
30.5%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
31.5%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
31.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
31.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
30.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 53 yds, downed at the Alab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 1:4972% → 71%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
28.5%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+5
29.1%
Hurts, Jalen rush for 2 yards to the ALABAMA6, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside (Thomas, Cory) 5 yards to the ALABAMA9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+2
29.4%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+6
29.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 6 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
28.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 18 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
27.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Damien HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
28.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Irv Smith Jr.) to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
29.0%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+10
29.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
29.4%
JK Scott punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
32.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FG
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:0970% → 73%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
29.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 12 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
29.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 6 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+48
28.0%
Damien Harris run for 48 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
26.8%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Mark McLaurin and Fletcher Adams for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
27.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 1 yd to the MisSt 12Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
28.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 12:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
27.2%
Andy Pappanastos 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
14 plays · 69 yds · 6:2728% → 55%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
28.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
29.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
31.1%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 3
50
+9
32.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Nick Gibson for 9 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
33.1%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+9
33.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 9 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
35.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
35.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+13
33.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
35.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Alab 12Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+9
36.4%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
36.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Alab 2Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0552% → 48%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
49.3%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Gerri Green for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 23Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
51.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Robert FosterSimilar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
52.0%
JK Scott punt for 41 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for no gain to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 5:2253% → 74%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
52.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
54.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+20
54.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 20 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
59.3%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
60.2%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+25
60.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 25 yds to the Alab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
63.3%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
63.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Alab 8Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
62.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
74.4%
Jace Christmann 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 4:0631% → 60%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
69.5%
Josh Jacobs run for 7 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+8
68.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 8 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
69.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 13 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
67.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 14 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
66.3%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Mark McLaurin for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+11
69.2%
Josh Jacobs run for 11 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
66.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+13
69.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 13 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
64.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 7 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+14
34.5%
Damien Harris run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-15
39.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alex Leatherwood) to the Alab 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0552% → 53%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
51.5%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
54.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
54.8%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
55.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+5
53.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 5 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
52.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:1757% → 52%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
43.5%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
42.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 10 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
41.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for 13 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
38.5%
Damien Harris run for 18 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
36.1%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
36.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+15
39.1%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Ridley, Calvin, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Rayford, Chris) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
35.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-4
36.0%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 13
OPP 19
-4
41.0%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 17
OPP 23
+41
47.8%
Andy Pappanastos 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3154% → 49%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
53.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 1 yd to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
53.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-2
50.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
48.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavian Marks at the Alab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 0:3654% → 96%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
45.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+15
46.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 15 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
41.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Irv Smith Jr.Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
42.6%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Erroll Thompson for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+31
48.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 31 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
3.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 26 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21END OF GAME
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:169% → 14%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
9.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 16 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
11.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
10.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
9.6%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Todd, Reginald, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Holcombe, Keith) 15 yards to the ALABAMA34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
14.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:25
Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 26 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
-45.1
TD · Q4 9:49
Damien Harris run for 14 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
-29.9
TD · Q3 6:03
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+18.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com