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ARK

Arkansas 10 at LSU 33

LSU
2017 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2017 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:42 · Cole Kelley pass intercepted, touchback. Andraez Williams return for no gain
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+0.6Home team on offense+31.9Score differential+24.0Garbage-time factor+8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:16: Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +9.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Connor Limpert kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — ARK win probability +3.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:13: Derrius Guice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED) — LSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:29: Derrius Guice run for 33 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED) — LSU win probability +9.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:52: Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 68 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK) — LSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 14:31ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:02LSU 4th & 21 at LSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:32ARK 4th & 15 at ARK 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:02LSU 4th & 10 at ARK 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:03ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:52ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:47LSU 4th & 8 at ARK 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:36ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 18, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:25LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:22ARK 4th & 5 at LSU 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:35ARK 4th & 9 at LSU 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:32ARK 4th & 20 at LSU 45, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:14LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 48, up 16
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:22ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 22, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:42ARK 4th & 9 at LSU 25, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:39LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:16ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:13LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:29LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:52LSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:46LSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:209% → 9%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
90.8%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
90.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q1 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
90.7%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:31
4TH & 10
OWN 3
-2
90.7%
Blake Johnson punt for 46 yds , D.J. Chark returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 49 D.J. Chark fumbled, recovered by LSU D.J. CharkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:2391% → 90%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
90.7%
Derrius Guice run for 10 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
90.6%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Dillon, Derrick, PENALTY LSU holding (Brumfield, Garrett) 10 yards to the LSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+5
90.5%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 15
OPP 46
+2
90.3%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-8
90.2%
Danny Etling sacked by T.J. Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 21
OWN 48
0
89.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:2110% → 11%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+20
89.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 20 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
89.9%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+5
89.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-8
89.4%
Austin Allen sacked by Donte Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
89.4%
Blake Johnson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:2389% → 88%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
89.4%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
89.0%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+10
88.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Dee Anderson for 10 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
89.0%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-4
88.8%
D.J. Chark run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+8
88.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 8 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
88.5%
Darrel Williams run for 17 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
88.4%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
88.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 10
-5
88.1%
LSU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
88.0%
Etling, Danny pass complete to Williams, Darrel for 10 yards to the ARKANSAS5, PENALTY LSU illegal touching (Williams, Darrel) 0 yards to the ARKANSAS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
87.5%
Connor Culp 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5213% → 13%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.2%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.2%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
87.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
87.3%
Blake Johnson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:1687% → 89%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
87.3%
Derrius Guice run for 15 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
87.5%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+45
89.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 45 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:3512% → 12%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.5%
Austin Cantrell run for 2 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
88.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 9 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
88.1%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+18
88.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 18 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.5%
T.J. Hammonds run for no gain to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
87.6%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to T.J. HammondsSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-8
87.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
88.3%
Blake Johnson punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:4988% → 88%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
88.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 5 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
88.3%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+8
88.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 8 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
88.3%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Chark, D.J., PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Curl, Kamren) 15 yards to the ARKANSAS40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
88.4%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
88.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
88.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
87.5%
Josh Growden punt for 28 yds, downed at the Ark 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0413% → 12%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
87.4%
T.J. Hammonds run for 2 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+3
87.3%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+3
87.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Will Gragg for 3 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
87.8%
Blake Johnson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0388% → 87%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
88.2%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+1
88.3%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-7
87.7%
Danny Etling sacked by Randy Ramsey for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 12
OWN 40
+14
86.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 50 yds , Henre' Toliver returns for 14 yds to the ARKANSAS 46 ARKANSAS Penalty, Illegal Block (Deon Stewart) to the Ark 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 4:5913% → 27%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+10
86.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 10 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
86.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+21
86.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 21 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
85.3%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+27
85.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 27 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
83.5%
De'Vion Warren run for 4 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+12
82.9%
David Williams run for 12 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Rashard Lawrence) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
82.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 3 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+8
82.5%
Austin Allen run for 8 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
79.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4179% → 86%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
79.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 19 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
80.5%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+9
80.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 9 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
80.5%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+15
80.1%
Russell Gage run for 15 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
80.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Tory Carter for 15 yds to the Ark 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
80.2%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
86.2%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:3817% → 24%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
82.6%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+33
82.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Will Gragg for 33 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
80.2%
Williams, David rush for 17 yards to the LSU20, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding 10 yards to the LSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+14
81.0%
David Williams run for 14 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
78.4%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
79.3%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
77.7%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
78.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
78.6%
Austin Allen run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
76.1%
Connor Limpert 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:4479% → 90%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
78.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 9 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
80.5%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
80.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+19
79.9%
Derrius Guice run for 19 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
89.7%
Derrius Guice run for 33 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:3912% → 12%
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
87.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (Frank Herron) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
50
-10
86.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devwah Whaley) to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+4
87.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+7
87.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 7 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
87.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
88.4%
Blake Johnson punt for 18 yds, downed at the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:0891% → 96%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
90.5%
Danny Etling run for 14 yds to the LSU 45 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-20 Yards) to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 16
OWN 25
+5
89.4%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+2
89.4%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+68
96.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 68 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:445% → 4%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
95.0%
David Williams run for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
94.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 11 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
94.8%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
94.6%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to David WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+7
95.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 7 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
94.7%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 31 David Williams fumbled, forced by Greg Gilmore, recovered by Ark David WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
94.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for no gain to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 10:49
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-14
95.5%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete to Stewart, Deon, PENALTY ARKANSAS illegal block 14 yards to the LSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 20
OPP 45
0
96.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 20
OPP 45
0
96.4%
Blake Johnson punt for 37 yds, downed at the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0997% → 97%
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
96.7%
Derrius Guice run for 8 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+4
96.8%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
96.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 21 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
97.1%
Justin Jefferson run for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
97.2%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
97.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
97.3%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:403% → 3%
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
96.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 9 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
96.3%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
96.6%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jeremy Patton for no gain to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
96.9%
Cole Kelley run for no gain to the Ark 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:1798% → 100%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
97.8%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
98.0%
Danny Etling run for 6 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
98.0%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
98.3%
Derrius Guice run for 10 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
14 plays · 54 yds · 2:481% → 1%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.5%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
99.5%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
99.5%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+11
99.5%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Will Gragg for 11 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+25
99.5%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 25 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.4%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
99.5%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 9
OPP 25
0
99.5%
Cole Kelley pass intercepted, touchback. Andraez Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 25
-6
99.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 19Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:29
Derrius Guice run for 33 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp PAT MISSED)
+9.8
TD · Q2 0:16
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q4 14:52
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 68 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com