Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 10 at Tennessee 24

TENN
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Neyland Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:26 · Trevor Daniel punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 172Home team on offense+29.1Pregame prior+0.4Score differential+13.3Garbage-time factor+15.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:42: Aaron Medley 38 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +3.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:15: John Kelly run for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +15.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:24: Will McBride pass incomplete to Ethan Wolf — TENN win probability +3.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:17: John Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:45: Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +3.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:59USM 4th & 21 at USM 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:13TENN 4th & 2 at USM 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−0.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    71.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:15USM 4th & 2 at TENN 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:16USM 4th & 5 at TENN 10, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%−<0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:42TENN 4th & 6 at USM 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    65.7%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:24USM 4th & 13 at USM 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 16 at USM 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:39TENN 4th & 9 at USM 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:02USM 4th & 5 at USM 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:27TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−2.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:17USM 4th & 5 at USM 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:26TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:45USM 4th & 7 at USM 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00TENN 4th & 5 at TENN 9, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:15USM 4th & 6 at USM 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:04TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:45TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 33, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:26USM 4th & 1 at TENN 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−1.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:26TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 10:59TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:15TENN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:17TENN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:45USM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:0168% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
67.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
67.8%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+11
67.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 11 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
67.8%
John Kelly run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+12
67.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Eli Wolf for 12 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
67.8%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the SoMis 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+11
67.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 11 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
67.8%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.1%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 20 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.6%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
68.5%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
68.6%
Keon Howard run for 10 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.4%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Emmanuel MoseleySimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
68.4%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+9
68.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 9 yds to the Tenn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-15
68.2%
Howard, K. pass incomplete to Jones, I., PENALTY USM pass interference (Jones, I.) 15 yards to the USM41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 25
OWN 41
-9
68.5%
Keon Howard sacked by Kyle Phillips for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 32 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 34
OWN 32
+7
68.6%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 27
OWN 39
+6
68.6%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 21
OWN 45
0
68.8%
Zac Everett punt for 47 yds, downed at the Tenn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 50 yds · 1:4170% → 71%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
69.7%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 8Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+42
69.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 42 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
50
+2
70.5%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
71.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ethan Wolf, broken up by Jomez ApplewhiteSimilar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+6
70.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Carlin Fils-aime for 6 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
70.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon Johnson, broken up by Paxton SchrimsherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
69.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+4
70.1%
Keon Howard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+1
69.8%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+8
70.1%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 8 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
69.7%
Zac Everett punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:0271% → 70%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
71.1%
Kelly, J. rush for no gain to the UT17 (Davis, W.), PENALTY USM face mask (Davis, W.) 15 yards to the UT32, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
71.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to John Kelly for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 27
-7
71.2%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Jacques Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the Tenn 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 20
+7
70.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 7 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 27
+2
70.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 13 , Allenzae Staggers returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 29 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
11 plays · 77 yds · 5:1829% → 32%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
71.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+9
71.5%
Keon Howard run for 9 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+2
71.5%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
71.3%
Staggers, A. rush for no gain to the USM24 (Warrior, N.), PENALTY USM holding (Allen, J.) 10 yards to the USM14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 20
OWN 14
0
71.4%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Daniel BituliSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+1
71.5%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 19
OWN 15
+70
71.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 70 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
69.1%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+2
69.1%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
69.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
67.8%
Parker Shaunfield 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:2869% → 75%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
68.9%
Chandler, T. rush for 1 yard to the UT13 (Turner, J.;Crayton, R.), PENALTY USM offside defense (Thigpen, X.) 5 yards to the UT17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 5
OWN 17
+2
69.0%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+6
69.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tyler Byrd for 6 yds to the Tenn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
69.0%
Guarantano, J. pass incomplete to Byrd, T., PENALTY USM pass interference (Moore, T.) 15 yards to the UT40, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
70.1%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+12
70.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jordan Murphy for 12 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
70.8%
John Kelly run for 8 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
70.9%
John Kelly run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
71.4%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
71.3%
John Kelly run for 11 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
71.4%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
71.4%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
71.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Josh PalmerSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
75.3%
Aaron Medley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 20 yds · 2:1825% → 24%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
75.5%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
75.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 4 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
76.0%
Keon Howard run for 10 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
74.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete, broken up by Elliott BerrySimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
74.8%
Ito Smith run for 7 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
73.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 3 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
73.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
75.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Elliott BerrySimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 13
OWN 45
0
75.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 13
OWN 45
0
76.2%
Zac Everett punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
75.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
73.3%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
73.7%
N/A pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
74.5%
Keon Howard pass incomplete, broken up by Rashaan GauldenSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
75.1%
Zac Everett punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
75.4%
John Kelly run for 1 yd to the Tenn 38Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
75.4%
Will McBride run for 7 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+13
75.6%
Will McBride pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 13 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
76.7%
N/A run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
76.6%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Marquez CallawaySimilar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
75.6%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Jeff George, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
73.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 36 yds, downed at the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
74.5%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 4Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 11
OWN 4
0
74.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+6
75.7%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 5
OWN 10
0
76.0%
Zac Everett punt for 60 yds, downed at the Tenn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
77.1%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Tenn 30Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-3
76.8%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 27Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+4
75.6%
Will McBride run for 4 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
75.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 7 , Allenzae Staggers returns for no gain to the SoMis 31 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
75.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 2 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+10
75.3%
Keon Howard run for 10 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
74.5%
Tez Parks run for 12 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
74.0%
Tez Parks run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
73.8%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+19
74.6%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Emmanuel Moseley return for 19 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
89.8%
John Kelly run for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Allenzae Staggers pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.0%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
87.2%
Keon Howard sacked by Darrell Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 19 Keon Howard fumbled, recovered by Tenn Rashaan Gaulden , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17TD
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:0791% → 97%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
90.5%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+9
90.5%
John Kelly run for 9 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 1
OPP 10
-2
90.2%
John Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 12Similar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+6
91.1%
Medley, A. field goal attempt from 30 GOOD, clock 03:21, PENALTY USM personal foul 6 yards to the USM6, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 0
OPP 6
+3
92.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (3 Yards) to the SoMis 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
John Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
97.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Draper Riley) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.8%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
96.6%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 3:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.7%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q3 3:17
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.8%
Zac Everett punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Emmanuel Moseley at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
97.5%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Tenn 24Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
97.5%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Tyler ByrdSimilar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
97.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 34 yds, downed at the SoMis 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:423% → 2%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
97.4%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-2
97.7%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
97.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
97.8%
Zac Everett punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
98.3%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Tenn 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+3
98.3%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+1
98.3%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Tenn 9Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 9
0
98.2%
Trevor Daniel punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.5%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Julian AllenSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.6%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 4 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
98.6%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Tez ParksSimilar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
98.6%
Zac Everett punt for 44 yds, downed at the Tenn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
98.8%
Will McBride sacked by Jacques Turner and Jr. Allen Fails for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 12Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 15
OWN 12
-5
98.8%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Coleman Thomas) to the Tenn 7Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 20
OWN 7
+7
98.8%
John Kelly run for 7 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 13
OWN 14
0
98.8%
Will McBride pass incomplete to Ethan Wolf, broken up by Jomez ApplewhiteSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 13
OWN 14
-6
98.8%
Trevor Daniel punt for 60 yds , Quez Watkins returns for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 8 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 5:191% → 5%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
98.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
98.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 11 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
98.7%
Tez Parks run for 5 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kahlil Mckenzie) to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
98.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
50
+13
98.6%
Tez Parks run for 13 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
98.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 14 yds to the Tenn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
98.4%
Kwadra Griggs run for 4 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-4
98.4%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+12
98.6%
Kwadra Griggs run for 12 yds to the Tenn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
98.4%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Tez Parks for 10 yds to the Tenn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.8%
Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.5%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
96.6%
John Kelly run for 4 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
96.7%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+24
96.5%
Trevor Daniel punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 41 , Quez Watkins returns for 24 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
97.1%
Kwadra Griggs run for 5 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
97.1%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the Tenn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
96.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah Jones, broken up by Emmanuel MoseleySimilar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
97.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 9 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 1
OPP 39
0
96.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey RobertsonSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
97.0%
Kwadra Griggs run for no gain to the Tenn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3798% → 98%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.1%
John Kelly run for no gain to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.1%
John Kelly run for 2 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-2
98.1%
John Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
98.3%
Trevor Daniel punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28END OF GAME
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
98.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete, broken up by Darrell TaylorSimilar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+9
98.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez Watkins for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (9 Yards) to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
98.7%
Kwadra Griggs sacked by Darrell Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+3
98.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 3 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 15
OWN 15
-4
98.8%
Kwadra Griggs sacked by Kyle Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:15
John Kelly run for 20 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+15.2
TD · Q3 3:17
John Kelly run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q4 6:45
Kwadra Griggs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com