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MASS

Massachusetts 23 at Mississippi State 34

MSST
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:06 · Logan Laurent punt for 44 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior+43.2Home team on offense+2.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score differential+0.4Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:59: Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted for a TD Isaiah Rodgers return for 29 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +1.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:15: Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 69 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK) — MASS win probability +3.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:15: Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +7.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:46: Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +6.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:18: Logan Laurent 26 yd FG GOOD — MASS win probability +5.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MASS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:32MASS 4th & 5 at MSST 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:45MSST 4th & 10 at MASS 35, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:18MSST 4th & 4 at MASS 11, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:06MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:06MASS 4th & 7 at MSST 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:49MSST 4th & 7 at MASS 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:37MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:21MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:32MASS 4th & 4 at MSST 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    20.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:22MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:22MASS 4th & 1 at MSST 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−2.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−10.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:18MASS 4th & 6 at MSST 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−10.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:56MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−4.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:00MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 27, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:42MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:59MASS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:15MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:15MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:46MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1INT TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:032% → 2%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Adam BrenemanSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+18
97.8%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 18 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+58
97.8%
Ross Comis pass intercepted for a TD J.T. Gray return for 58 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2FG
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:032% → 3%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.8%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+66
97.7%
Marquis Young run for 66 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
97.6%
Ross Comis sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+7
97.6%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 7 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
97.5%
Ross Comis run for 6 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 10:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
97.4%
Logan Laurent 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:0297% → 97%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
97.3%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+12
97.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 12 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
97.2%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the UMass 45Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
97.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 5 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+5
97.1%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the UMass 35Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
97.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the UMass 35Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+18
96.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 18 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
96.9%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the UMass 9Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 9
0
96.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-2
96.8%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 11Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
96.9%
Jace Christmann 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:043% → 4%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the UMass 25Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.8%
Andy Isabella run for 5 yds to the UMass 30Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
96.7%
Ross Comis run for 9 yds to the UMass 39 Ross Comis fumbled, forced by Willie Gay Jr., recovered by UMass Sadiq Palmer for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
96.6%
Bilal Ally run for 2 yds to the UMass 41Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
96.5%
Ross Comis pass complete to Bilal Ally for 2 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
96.3%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Jessie BrittSimilar
Q1 2:06
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+9
96.4%
Logan Laurent punt for 44 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5096% → 96%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
96.4%
Nick Gibson run for no gain to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
96.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 15 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Nick GibsonSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
96.3%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 36Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+10
96.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
96.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:414% → 5%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
95.7%
Ross Comis pass complete to Brennon Dingle for 9 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
95.7%
Marquis Young run for 4 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
95.5%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 6 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-15
95.4%
Comis, Ross pass incomplete to Isabella, Andy, PENALTY UMASS personal foul (Yerardi, Mike) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 19
OPP 42
+12
95.7%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 12 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
95.5%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Brennon DingleSimilar
Q2 13:06
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
94.9%
Logan Laurent 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
94.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted for a TD Isaiah Rodgers return for 29 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:5694% → 94%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
94.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 8 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
94.2%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
94.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the UMass 49Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
93.9%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the UMass 43Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
93.6%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the UMass 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
93.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 30 yds to the UMass 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
93.4%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the UMass 7Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
93.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Osirus MitchellSimilar
Q2 8:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
93.5%
Jace Christmann 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:157% → 11%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
92.7%
Bilal Ally run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 20Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+15
92.4%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy Isabella for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Montez Sweat) to the UMass 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
92.0%
Bilal Ally run for a loss of 4 yards to the UMass 31Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+69
89.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 69 yds for a TD, (Logan Laurent KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5589% → 88%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
89.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
88.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Tyler Hayes return for 3 yds to the UMass 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3113% → 13%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
87.4%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
87.4%
Ross Comis run for 7 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-8
86.6%
Ross Comis run for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 45 Ross Comis fumbled, recovered by UMass Marquis YoungSimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 11
OWN 45
+6
87.3%
Logan Laurent punt for 42 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for 6 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5987% → 85%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
87.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+3
86.7%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
86.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q2 3:21
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
85.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Andy Isabella at the UMass 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3815% → 19%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
84.7%
Bilal Ally run for 2 yds to the UMass 35Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
83.8%
Bilal Ally run for no gain to the UMass 35 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Johnathan Abram) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
50
0
82.2%
Marquis Young run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
50
+6
81.3%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
79.9%
Ross Comis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
80.7%
Logan Laurent punt for 41 yds, downed at the MisSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
81.8%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3582% → 89%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.5%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
82.4%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
81.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 9 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 13:40
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+16
82.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the UMass 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
81.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 16 yds to the UMass 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
82.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 12 yds to the UMass 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3815% → 14%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
85.3%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 8 yds to the UMass 33 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Illegal Block (Jake Largay) to the UMass 18Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+7
85.5%
Ross Comis pass complete to Adam Breneman for 7 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.0%
Ross Comis run for no gain to the UMass 25Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
85.3%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.8%
Logan Laurent punt for 50 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for 6 yds to the MisSt 31 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Gibson) to the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 5:2486% → 92%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
85.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+8
86.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
86.1%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+9
86.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 9 yds to the UMass 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
86.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
86.5%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+15
86.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 15 yds to the UMass 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-9
85.9%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the UMass 13 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Justin Johnson) to the UMass 23Similar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 19
OPP 23
+8
85.3%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the UMass 15Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+5
85.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the UMass 10Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
92.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18FUMBLE
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:1811% → 10%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.5%
Marquis Young run for 6 yds to the UMass 31Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
88.6%
Ross Comis pass complete to Jessie Britt for 3 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+52
89.4%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 52 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
86.8%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
86.6%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+5
88.1%
Ross Comis run for 5 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-4
90.1%
Ross Comis run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 9 Ross Comis fumbled, forced by Jeffery Simmons, recovered by UMass Bryton BarrSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:2793% → 94%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
92.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+5
92.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+4
92.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
92.9%
Jamal Peters run for 8 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
93.2%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
93.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+30
93.8%
Reginald Todd pass intercepted Isaiah Rodgers return for 30 yds to the UMass 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:1710% → 18%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
90.2%
Bilal Ally run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 5
50
+15
89.3%
Bilal Ally run for 15 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
87.9%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 9 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+4
87.3%
Bilal Ally run for 4 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
87.1%
Bilal Ally run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 13
OPP 25
0
87.8%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+13
89.4%
Comis, Ross pass incomplete to Young, Marquis, PENALTY MISSSTATE personal foul (Abram, Johnathan) 13 yards to the MISSSTATE12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UMASS.Similar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
86.3%
Bilal Ally run for 3 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
86.1%
Ross Comis run for 1 yd to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
87.2%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Nick OrekoyaSimilar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
82.2%
Logan Laurent 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0486% → 85%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.8%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
86.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
85.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
85.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 45 yds, downed at the UMass 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4016% → 4%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
84.1%
Marquis Young run for 3 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-5
83.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, False Start (Kyle Horn) to the UMass 20Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 12
OWN 20
0
84.3%
Ross Comis pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+7
85.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Marquis Young for 7 yds to the UMass 27Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+83
96.5%
Logan Laurent punt for 56 yds , Deddrick Thomas returns for 83 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:124% → 3%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.2%
Ross Comis pass complete to Andy Isabella for 9 yds to the UMass 34Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
95.8%
Ross Comis run for 3 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.9%
Randall West pass incomplete to Marquis YoungSimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-14
95.9%
Marquis Young run for 1 yd to the UMass 38 MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ray Thomas-Ishman Sr.) to the UMass 23Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 24
OWN 23
0
96.6%
Randall West pass incomplete to Andy IsabellaSimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 24
OWN 23
0
96.8%
Logan Laurent punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Deddrick Thomas at the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 41 yds · 3:2597% → 98%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
96.8%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+11
97.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the UMass 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
97.6%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the UMass 46Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+20
97.6%
Aeris Williams run for 20 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
97.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UMass 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:15
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+7.8
TD · Q3 4:46
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+6.9
FG · Q4 8:18
Logan Laurent 26 yd FG GOOD
-5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com