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LSU

LSU 10 at Alabama 24

ALA
2017 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2017 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-1.4ALA 89.7%Connor Culp 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 14 · Q2 8:38
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:38 · Connor Culp 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Pregame prior+30.6Home team on offense+5.3Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:17: Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +2.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:55: Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:48: Darrel Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — LSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:48: Cameron Gamble kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — ALA win probability +2.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 13:25: Andy Pappanastos 40 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +3.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:05ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:18LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:17LSU 4th & 7 at ALA 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:14ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:38LSU 4th & 4 at ALA 4, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:38ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:09LSU 4th & 11 at LSU 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:52ALA 4th & 3 at midfield, up 11
    Close callPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:31LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:12ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 29, up 11
    Close callPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:04LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:28ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 42, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:17LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 17, down 11
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:25ALA 4th & 8 at LSU 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:07LSU 4th & 14 at LSU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:10ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:22LSU 4th & 23 at LSU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:39ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:17LSU 4th & 16 at LSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:08ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:17ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:55ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:48LSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4592% → 91%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
91.7%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-10
91.6%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Christian LaCouture for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+14
91.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 14 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
91.2%
JK Scott punt for 56 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:479% → 10%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
91.2%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Edward Ingram) to the LSU 5Similar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+4
91.2%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
91.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 1 yd to the LSU 10Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+31
90.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 31 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
90.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
90.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
90.4%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
90.5%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavian Marks at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:5990% → 91%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
90.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 5Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+4
90.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 11
OWN 9
+15
90.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 15 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
89.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
89.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 7 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+47
89.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 47 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
89.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 10 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
89.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3510% → 11%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
90.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
90.2%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+9
90.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 9 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
89.8%
Russell Gage run for 9 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+5
89.5%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
89.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
89.4%
Derrick Dillon run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
89.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Dee AndersonSimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
89.5%
Josh Growden punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Xavian Marks at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5490% → 89%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
89.6%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+3
89.6%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
89.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Damien HarrisSimilar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-7
89.2%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Corey Thompson for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 13Similar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
88.9%
JK Scott punt for 48 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
88.8%
Danny Etling pass intercepted Ronnie Harrison return for 6 yds to the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 0:4390% → 92%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
89.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
89.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+24
89.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 24 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:199% → 10%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.2%
Russell Gage run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
91.1%
Russell Gage run for 2 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
91.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 13 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
90.8%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
90.7%
Russell Gage run for no gain to the LSU 49Similar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+21
91.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 21 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
90.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
90.9%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+23
91.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 23 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
90.8%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Alab 4Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Tory CarterSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q2 8:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
89.7%
Connor Culp 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5291% → 90%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.0%
JK Scott punt for 54 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 2 yds to the LSU 27 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Jontre Kirklin) to the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 3:1810% → 9%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
90.3%
Derrick Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 11Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+13
90.3%
Darrel Williams run for 13 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
90.1%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
89.8%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-6
90.6%
Danny Etling sacked by Ronnie Harrison and Minkah Fitzpatrick for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+52
91.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 52 yds , Xavian Marks returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:0891% → 91%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
90.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 19 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
91.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
90.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+7
90.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 3
50
0
90.6%
JK Scott punt for 44 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:439% → 10%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
91.0%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 8Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+5
91.1%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+4
91.0%
Stephen Sullivan run for 4 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
90.6%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+5
90.5%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:2210% → 10%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
89.7%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
89.3%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
89.0%
Russell Gage run for 6 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-1
88.5%
Danny Etling sacked by Raekwon Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-1
88.9%
Danny Etling sacked by Rashaan Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+5
89.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 40 yds , Xavian Marks returns for 5 yds to the Alab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1190% → 89%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
89.9%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
89.9%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
89.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Hale HentgesSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
89.1%
JK Scott punt for 52 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0211% → 10%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
89.5%
Darrel Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-1
89.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
90.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Xavian Marks at the Alab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3090% → 89%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
90.3%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Arden Key and Devin White for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
89.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+12
89.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 12 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
89.3%
JK Scott punt for 48 yds, downed at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0011% → 10%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
89.3%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 8Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+4
89.6%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+5
90.0%
Russell Gage run for 5 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
90.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Xavian Marks at the Alab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:1591% → 97%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
90.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 15 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
91.1%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-11
91.0%
Hurts, Jalen pass complete to Ridley, Calvin for 31 yards to the LSU7, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Williams, Jonah) 11 yards to the LSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 18
OPP 49
+9
90.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 9 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+15
90.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 15 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
91.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+22
91.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 22 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 0:514% → 13%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
95.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 11 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+54
95.8%
Darrel Williams run for 54 yds to the Alab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.3%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:1291% → 95%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
90.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
91.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 11 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
91.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
91.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+21
91.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 21 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
92.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
92.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
91.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
95.2%
Andy Pappanastos 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:056% → 4%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 12:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
93.0%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
93.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Garrett Brumfield) to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+1
93.7%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the LSU 32Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
95.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+7
95.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds , Xavian Marks returns for 7 yds to the Alab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5297% → 96%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
96.5%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-2
96.5%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-1
96.6%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Greg Gilmore for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 25Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
96.4%
JK Scott punt for 58 yds, downed at the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:414% → 3%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
96.0%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
95.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+16
96.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 16 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
95.9%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
96.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-12
96.2%
Danny Etling sacked by Da'Ron Payne and Dylan Moses for a loss of 12 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 18
OWN 30
-5
96.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 23
OWN 25
0
96.8%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavian Marks at the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2897% → 97%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
97.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-2
97.5%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
97.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
97.4%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 9 yds · 2:143% → 2%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
97.1%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Russell Gage for 5 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+7
97.5%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Derrius Guice for 7 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.5%
Myles Brennan run for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
97.6%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Derrius Guice for 6 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
97.4%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
97.5%
Myles Brennan sacked by Quinnen Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
97.8%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 16
OWN 28
0
97.9%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to Jamal PettigrewSimilar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 16
OWN 28
-11
97.9%
Myles Brennan sacked by Dylan Moses for a loss of 11 yards to the LSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1098% → 99%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
98.4%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+6
98.6%
Hurts, Jalen rush for loss of 5 yards to the LSU18, PENALTY LSU face mask (Thompson, Corey) 6 yards to the LSU7, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q4 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
98.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:48
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q3 2:55
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+5.7
FG · Q4 13:25
Andy Pappanastos 40 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com