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MSST

Mississippi State 35 at Texas A&M 14

TA&M
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:31 · TEAM punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense−4.1Score differential−1.6Garbage-time factor−1.4Pregame prior−8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:04: MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Nick Fitzgerald) to the MisSt 42 — MSST win probability +4.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:30: Donald Gray 8 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick) — MSST win probability +8.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:47: Jordan Thomas 10 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick) — MSST win probability +10.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:20: Keith Ford 1 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick) — TA&M win probability +8.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:00: Nick Gibson 14 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick) — MSST win probability +9.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:47TA&M 4th & 15 at MSST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:49TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−1.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:52MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:09TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 40, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:31MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:04TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:12MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:32TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:36TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:18MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:14TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:44MSST 4th & 14 at TA&M 34, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:10TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:33MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 38, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:23MSST 4th & 3 at TA&M 42, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:13TA&M 4th & 11 at MSST 24, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:34MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:30MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:47MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:20TA&M Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:00MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:23MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:15TA&M Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1INT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0162% → 62%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.9%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
38.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 16 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for no gain to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
38.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
38.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Otaro Alaka return for no gain to the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5039% → 39%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
39.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
39.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-5
38.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Camron Buckley) to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 15
OPP 48
0
38.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
38.9%
Shane Tripucka punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
16 plays · 86 yds · 8:0761% → 64%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
39.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Nick Gibson for 12 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
39.0%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jarrett Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+7
39.2%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+16
39.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 16 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
39.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
39.1%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
39.4%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
39.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+7
39.5%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
39.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
39.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 7 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+5
39.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the TexAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
39.6%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the TexAM 4Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+1
39.7%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
39.8%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 2Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.0%
Nick Fitzgerald 2 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:3338% → 36%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.5%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
37.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 4 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
37.4%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
37.3%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
38.1%
Kellen Mond run for 7 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
38.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
38.6%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-8
38.4%
Kellen Mond sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 44Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
36.3%
Shane Tripucka punt for 46 yds, downed at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4863% → 62%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
36.8%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+17
36.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 17 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
36.8%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 32
-2
37.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
37.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
38.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3738% → 38%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
37.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
37.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 3 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
37.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 4 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
38.0%
Shane Tripucka punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1963% → 62%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
36.8%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 21 Kylin Hill fumbled, recovered by MisSt Kylin HillSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+6
37.2%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+5
37.0%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Todd, Reginald, PENALTY TEXASAM offside (Alaka, Otaro) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
36.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 2
OWN 32
-5
37.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Braden Smith) to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
37.9%
TEAM punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1137% → 36%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
37.3%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+4
36.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 4 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
35.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Keith FordSimilar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
35.5%
Shane Tripucka punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3965% → 64%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
35.5%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-2
34.5%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
35.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
36.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
37.4%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Mark McLaurin return for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:3467% → 76%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
33.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Nick Fitzgerald) to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+2
34.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+45
34.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 45 yds to the TexAM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
32.4%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 8Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
24.1%
Donald Gray 8 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4726% → 25%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
26.1%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Ausbon, Jhamon, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Dantzler, Cameron) 15 yards to the TEXASAM44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
27.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
26.9%
Kellen Mond run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 43Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-1
25.8%
Kellen Mond sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 42Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 12
OWN 42
+3
24.7%
Shane Tripucka punt for 48 yds , Donald Gray returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:2677% → 79%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
23.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+4
23.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.7%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
21.0%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2123% → 22%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Trayveon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
22.9%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q3 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
22.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Kendrick RogersSimilar
Q3 14:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.3%
Shane Tripucka punt for 52 yds , Donald Gray returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:3678% → 91%
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
21.8%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+2
21.7%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+41
21.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 41 yds to the TexAM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
19.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+15
18.8%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Todd, Reginald, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Oliver, Charles) 15 yards to the TEXASAM8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
18.7%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 10 Aeris Williams fumbled, recovered by MisSt Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
8.6%
Jordan Thomas 10 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 16TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:1713% → 20%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
13.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
12.9%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+7
12.8%
Keith Ford run for 7 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
13.1%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
12.7%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+18
11.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 18 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+33
12.4%
Kellen Mond run for 33 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
11.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
11.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Damion Ratley for 7 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.1%
Keith Ford 1 Yd Run (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:5184% → 85%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
16.1%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
16.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+4
14.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
13.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
14.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
14.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
15.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
16.9%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Lashard Durr return for 20 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:5887% → 96%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
13.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
12.7%
Dontavian Lee run for 4 yds to the TexAM 14Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
3.7%
Nick Gibson 14 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:346% → 5%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
5.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
5.6%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 3
OWN 23
0
5.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
5.1%
Shane Tripucka punt for 50 yds, downed at the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:2497% → 97%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
3.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+17
3.5%
Nick Gibson run for 17 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
3.1%
Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 4
50
+2
2.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 2 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
2.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
2.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 8 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+6
2.4%
Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
2.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-6
2.3%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Landis Durham for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 14
OPP 34
0
2.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+3
2.7%
Nick Fitzgerald punt for 14 yds , Deshawn Capers-Smith returns for 3 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:253% → 3%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
3.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Trayveon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
2.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
2.8%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
2.7%
Shane Tripucka punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon at the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2798% → 98%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
2.2%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
2.2%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
2.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Nick Fitzgerald) to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+3
2.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
1.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24INT TD
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:042% → 0%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
2.4%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-4
2.3%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 27Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+16
2.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 16 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
2.4%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
2.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+15
2.3%
Mond, Kellen pass complete to Bussey, Kendall for loss of 4 yards to the TEXASAM39, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing passer (Peters, Jamal) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
2.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
2.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Christian Kirk for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
2.6%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Christian Kirk for 7 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+8
2.6%
Kendall Bussey run for 8 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
2.5%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Christian Kirk for 5 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
2.5%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+90
0.2%
Nick Starkel pass intercepted for a TD Jamal Peters return for 90 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:520% → 1%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
0.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 20Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+14
0.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 14 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 34Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-4
0.1%
Nick Starkel sacked by Willie Gay Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+70
1.1%
Camron Buckley 70 Yd pass from Nick Starkel (Daniel LaCamera Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:3799% → 100%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
0.8%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-3
0.7%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 47Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+5
0.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+26
0.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 35 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 26 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:031% → 0%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
0.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kendall Bussey for 18 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.9%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
0.9%
Kendall Bussey run for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 2:24
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
0.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 9 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
0.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Kendall Bussey for 7 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+6
0.8%
Nick Starkel pass complete to Christian Kirk for 6 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.8%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
0.8%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-1
0.7%
Kendall Bussey run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 11
OPP 24
0
0.3%
Nick Starkel pass incomplete to Camron BuckleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:47
Jordan Thomas 10 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)
-10.1
TD · Q3 5:00
Nick Gibson 14 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)
-9
TD · Q2 3:30
Donald Gray 8 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com