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ARK

Arkansas 38 at Ole Miss 37

MISS
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFUMBLEFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:27 · Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jeremy Patton
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense+0.3Score differential+0.6Pregame prior+1.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 23 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +7.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:41: Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +10.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 14:24: Gary Wunderlich 36 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +8.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q4 6:01: Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 4 yards Jordan Ta'amu fumbled, recovered by Ark Kevin Richardson II , return for 22 yds, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +13.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:04: Connor Limpert 34 yd FG GOOD OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — ARK win probability +55.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 6:40ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:17ARK 4th & 4 at MISS 27, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−3.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:03MISS 4th & 4 at ARK 20, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−5.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:56ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:51ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 43, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:38MISS 4th & 10 at ARK 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:27ARK 4th & 1 at MISS 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−3.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:24MISS 4th & 6 at ARK 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−12.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:52MISS 4th & 2 at ARK 3, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%−2.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−12.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:55MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−2.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 14:29MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:55ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:44MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:23MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:51MISS Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:44ARK Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:13ARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:41ARK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:3155% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
54.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 10 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
55.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 64 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 6:2945% → 46%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
55.0%
Cole Kelley run for 5 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
55.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
55.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
55.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
55.0%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
55.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
55.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 8 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+8
55.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 8 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
55.0%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-1
54.9%
Cole Kelley sacked by Herbert Moore for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+16
55.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 16 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
54.9%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
54.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:0555% → 60%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
55.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+44
55.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 44 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
56.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Van Jefferson for 26 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.5%
Eric Swinney run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
58.6%
Jordan Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 22Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+9
58.6%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
58.4%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
58.8%
Blake Johnson punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:1159% → 65%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
59.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
59.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 12 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
60.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
60.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 4:23
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+49
64.9%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 49 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0037% → 35%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
63.3%
Cole Kelley sacked by Breeland Speaks for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+16
63.6%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 16 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
63.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 8 yds to the OLEMISS 48 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, personal foul (Tayler Polk) to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
62.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Gary Cross for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+11
62.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 11 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-3
62.5%
Cole Kelley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 27Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+44
65.0%
Connor Limpert 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:1467% → 74%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
66.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 10 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
67.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+15
67.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 15 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
67.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
68.9%
Eric Swinney run for 2 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+5
68.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
68.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 27
0
68.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+7
68.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Markell Pack for 7 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
73.7%
Gary Wunderlich 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
72.2%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
71.8%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
72.2%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+15
72.6%
Blake Johnson punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 34 , A.J. Brown returns for 15 yds to the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:1075% → 84%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
75.3%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D'Vaughn Pennamon for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 33Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+31
75.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 31 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+28
76.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 28 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
83.6%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 8 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
81.5%
T.J. Hammonds run for 17 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
80.9%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
81.6%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+4
81.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 4 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
81.6%
Blake Johnson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by A.J. Brown at the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
85.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 11 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+31
85.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 31 yds Octavious Cooley fumbled, forced by Santos Ramirez, recovered by Ark Santos RamirezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:4417% → 21%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
83.5%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+5
83.3%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
83.1%
Cole Kelley run for 4 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
83.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 9 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+22
82.6%
T.J. Hammonds run for 22 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
82.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 6 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
82.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 4 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
82.1%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-1
85.7%
David Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
78.8%
Cole Kelley run for 15 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
83.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge, broken up by Randy RamseySimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+13
83.4%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 13 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
83.5%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 9 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
83.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Dawson Knox for 5 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
84.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson Knox, broken up by Josh LiddellSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
83.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+54
83.9%
Jordan Ta'amu pass intercepted Josh Liddell return for 54 yds to the Miss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:5522% → 29%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
78.1%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-2
78.3%
Cole Kelley sacked by Breeland Speaks for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+23
70.6%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 23 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
74.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 4:1329% → 43%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+40
71.0%
Jonathan Nance run for 40 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
67.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Hayden Johnson for 14 yds to the Miss 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
67.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
67.4%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the Miss 14Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+5
68.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 5 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
67.4%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 12Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
67.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 3 yds to the Miss 9Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
57.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
61.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 8 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 2
OWN 13
0
61.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for no gain to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+2
60.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+38
61.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 38 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
65.3%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 2 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+3
65.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 5
OPP 42
0
64.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. Metcalf, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 5
OPP 42
-5
62.7%
OLE MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Ark 47Similar
Q3 10:38
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
61.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds, downed at the Ark 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 63 yds · 0:0038% → 41%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
62.0%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+1
62.0%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 11Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+6
63.3%
Cole Kelley run for 6 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
61.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 4 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+9
61.5%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+31
60.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to David Williams for 31 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
57.3%
T.J. Hammonds run for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
55.6%
T.J. Hammonds run for 2 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+3
57.2%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
59.0%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jeremy PattonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:3664% → 77%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
64.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
50
-8
67.8%
Jordan Ta'amu sacked by Bijhon Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 42Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+24
64.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 24 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
69.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus Lodge, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
69.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Van Jefferson for 9 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
67.6%
Eric Swinney run for 2 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
69.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
69.8%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
68.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q4 14:24
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+36
76.6%
Gary Wunderlich 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
65.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
66.5%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 7 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+2
65.1%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 2 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
64.6%
Cole Kelley sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 42 Cole Kelley fumbled, recovered by Miss DeMarquis Gates , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21FG
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:5984% → 85%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
83.7%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 31 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
84.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 4 yds to the Ark 7Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
84.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+1
82.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Ark 3Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
84.8%
Gary Wunderlich 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
84.6%
T.J. Hammonds run for 23 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
82.1%
Deon Stewart run for 2 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
82.2%
Cole Kelley run for 5 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
82.2%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
81.0%
T.J. Hammonds run for 1 yd to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
81.0%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
82.6%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q4 9:50
4TH & 9
OPP 0
+15
84.2%
Cole Kelley pass intercepted Javien Hamilton return for 15 yds to the Miss 19 ARKANSAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23FUMBLE TD
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
70.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 4 yards Jordan Ta'amu fumbled, recovered by Ark Kevin Richardson II , return for 22 yds, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0070% → 67%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
70.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
70.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
69.4%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Dawson Knox, broken up by Santos RamirezSimilar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
67.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 48 yds, downed at the Ark 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25FG
16 plays · 62 yds · 4:0034% → 94%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
66.4%
Jonathan Nance run for 5 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+8
65.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 8 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
65.1%
T.J. Hammonds run for 6 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-2
61.3%
T.J. Hammonds run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
65.1%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 7 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
61.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 6 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
59.1%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
60.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+7
64.0%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan Nance (M. Hartsfield), PENALTY OM pass interference (M. Hartsfield) 7 yards to the OM41, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
59.6%
Cole Kelley pass complete to David Williams for 16 yards to the OM25 (A. Robinson), PENALTY AR holding (Brian Wallace) 10 yards to the AR49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+19
63.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 19 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+6
57.1%
Cole Kelley run for 6 yds to the Miss 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
57.1%
David Williams run for 10 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+34
5.8%
Connor Limpert 34 yd FG GOOD OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:04
Connor Limpert 34 yd FG GOOD OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-55.1
FUMBLE · Q4 6:01
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 4 yards Jordan Ta'amu fumbled, recovered by Ark Kevin Richardson II , return for 22 yds, (Connor Limpert KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 10:41
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
-10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com