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TENN

Tennessee 26 at Kentucky 29

UK
2017 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2017 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jeff George for 48 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:37: Ty Chandler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +7.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:25: Ty Chandler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — TENN win probability +11.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 3:40: Brent Cimaglia 30 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +9.7 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:24: Brent Cimaglia 45 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +7.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:33: Stephen Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Stephen Johnson pass to Benny Snell Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — UK win probability +56.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:26TENN 4th & 7 at UK 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:34TENN 4th & 6 at UK 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    34.9%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:12TENN 4th & 9 at UK 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 18, down 8
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:37UK 4th & 6 at UK 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:14UK 4th & 5 at UK 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:56TENN 4th & 13 at UK 36, down 1
    Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:40TENN 4th & 12 at UK 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−13.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:24TENN 4th & 19 at UK 27, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−7.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−15.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:17UK 4th & 4 at UK 20, down 5
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:22TENN 4th & 6 at UK 25, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−15.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:22UK 4th & 10 at UK 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:53TENN 4th & 22 at TENN 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−11.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:16UK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:57UK Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:37TENN Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:58UK Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:25TENN Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:33UK Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 3.3 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.0%−3.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
64.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 15 Benny Snell Jr. fumbled, forced by Kendal Vickers, recovered by Tenn Nigel WarriorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2836% → 36%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ethan Wolf for no gain to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
64.2%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 3 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
64.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
64.0%
Brent Cimaglia 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 3:0164% → 65%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for no gain to the Kent 40Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
64.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+10
64.1%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles Walker, PENALTY UT pass interference (Martin, J.) 10 yards to the UT46, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
64.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 7 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+27
64.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 27 yds to the Tenn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
64.2%
Stephen Johnson run for 6 yds to the Tenn 6Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
65.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:4236% → 37%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
63.8%
PENALTY UT unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
64.5%
[SHOT], PENALTY UT false start (Richmond, D.) 5 yards to the UT20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
64.5%
Ty Chandler run for 10 yds to the Tenn 30 TENNESSEE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 20Similar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
64.5%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 1 yd to the Tenn 21Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
64.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Carlin Fils-aime for 12 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
64.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 5 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
64.3%
Ty Chandler run for 29 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
63.6%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+19
63.5%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 10 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (9 yards) (Denzil Ware) to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
63.5%
Ty Chandler run for 8 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-5
63.3%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 6Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
63.5%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Lonnie Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 16Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 0
OPP 16
+10
63.7%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 10 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
63.4%
Brent Cimaglia 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
64.3%
Sihiem King run for 14 yds to the Kent 41 Sihiem King fumbled, forced by Nigel Warrior, recovered by Tenn Shy TuttleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6MISSED FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0737% → 37%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
62.8%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 9 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+5
62.3%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 5 yds to the Kent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
62.3%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 2 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-1
62.3%
Carlin Fils-aime run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 26Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
62.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
63.4%
Brent Cimaglia 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:1564% → 70%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+19
64.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 19 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
65.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 5
50
+48
65.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 48 yds to the Tenn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Tenn 2Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.6%
Benny Snell Jr. 2 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
69.1%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Jordan Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Tenn 7Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+3
69.4%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 10
-4
69.7%
[SHOT], Guarantano, J. pass complete to Wolf, Et. for 22 yards to the UT32 (Calvin Taylor;Darius West), PENALTY UT illegal formation 4 yards to the UT6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 14
OWN 6
+12
69.9%
Ty Chandler run for 12 yds to the Tenn 18Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
69.9%
Trevor Daniel punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
70.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
69.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Sihiem King for 2 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
69.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin Richardson, broken up by Reginald McKenzie Jr.Similar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
68.3%
Matt Panton punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3830% → 40%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
70.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jeff George for 11 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
69.4%
[SHOT], Guarantano, J. pass incomplete to Palmer, J. (Chris Westry), PENALTY UK pass interference (Chris Westry) 15 yards to the UK49, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
68.2%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 11 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
68.2%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 8 yds to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+11
67.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Marquez Callaway for 11 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
67.1%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 5 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+13
67.1%
Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3964% → 74%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake Bone, broken up by Daniel BituliSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
63.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 23 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
65.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
66.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tenn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+36
66.2%
Lynn Bowden Jr. pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 36 yds to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
67.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 4 yds to the Tenn 1Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:2828% → 42%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
72.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 13 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
71.4%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 2 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
71.2%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 9 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Marquez Callaway, broken up by Lonnie JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
70.9%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+23
70.7%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 23 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
68.9%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 3 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
68.9%
Tyler Byrd run for 4 yds to the Kent 12Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+11
70.2%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 11 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.5%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
65.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-1
66.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 38Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
65.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 5
OWN 38
-4
63.8%
Matt Panton punt for 44 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
63.5%
TEAM run for no gain to the Tenn 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
63.6%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Smith for 13 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
61.7%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+3
61.1%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
61.2%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
60.9%
[SHOT], Guarantano, J. pass incomplete to Callaway, M., PENALTY UK offside defense (A. Middleton) 5 yards to the UK40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 5
OPP 40
+7
60.6%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 7 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
59.9%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+6
60.3%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-7
61.2%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Jamar Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the Kent 36Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 13
OPP 36
0
64.7%
Trevor Daniel punt for 30 yds, downed at the Kent 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 50 yds · 0:0064% → 67%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
64.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+2
63.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+34
62.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 34 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
67.0%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+5
67.3%
Drew Barker run for 5 yds to the Tenn 44 Drew Barker fumbled, forced by Rashaan Gaulden, recovered by Tenn Elliott BerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 4:3239% → 50%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
60.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 20 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
60.0%
Tim Jordan run for 12 yds to the Kent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
58.3%
Tim Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 25Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+10
58.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Ty Chandler for 10 yds to the Kent 15Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+6
59.8%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 6 yds to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
58.3%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 12Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
58.8%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 6 yds to the Kent 6Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
59.8%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Josh Allen and Joshua Paschal for a loss of 6 yards to the Kent 12Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
50.1%
Brent Cimaglia 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:0053% → 57%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
53.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 1
OWN 27
0
55.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
52.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
53.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 17 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
57.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 3 yds Garrett Johnson fumbled, forced by Kendal Vickers, recovered by Tenn Rashaan GauldenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4257% → 62%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
43.3%
Carlin Fils-aime run for 21 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
41.5%
Ty Chandler run for 8 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+2
40.9%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-13
40.9%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by Mike Edwards for a loss of 13 yards to the Kent 31 TENNESSEE Penalty, intentional grounding (Jarrett Guarantano) to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 23
OPP 31
+4
42.8%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 4 yds to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 27
0
45.3%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Brandon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 19
OPP 27
+45
37.6%
Brent Cimaglia 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
39.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
39.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
37.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
36.5%
Matt Panton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Marquez Callaway at the Tenn 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:0167% → 71%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
33.4%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 4 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
31.9%
Carlin Fils-aime run for no gain to the Tenn 40Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+16
32.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 16 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
31.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Josh Palmer for 15 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
29.4%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
29.4%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the Kent 23Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-2
26.4%
Jarrett Guarantano run for a loss of 2 yards to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
29.5%
Brent Cimaglia 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 35%
Q4 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
38.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
36.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
35.3%
Matt Panton punt for 47 yds , Marquez Callaway returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 67%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
29.3%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Tenn 30Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
29.7%
[SHOT], Guarantano, J. pass incomplete to Palmer, J., PENALTY UK pass interference (Derrick Baity) 15 yards to the UT45, 1ST DOWN UT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
26.7%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
26.4%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Drew Richmond) to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-11
27.2%
Jarrett Guarantano sacked by T.J. Carter for a loss of 11 yards to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 22
OWN 33
0
31.9%
Tim Jordan run for no gain to the Tenn 33Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 22
OWN 33
0
32.6%
Trevor Daniel punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 4:1030% → 95%
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
30.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 11 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
31.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
31.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 16 yds to the Tenn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+12
28.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 12 yds to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST down TENNESSEE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Tenn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
38.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 11 yds to the Tenn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
38.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
38.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Tenn 14Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+3
35.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tenn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
38.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to C.J. ConradSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Stephen Johnson pass to Benny Snell Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 72 yds · 0:3120% → 15%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.1%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Tim Jordan for 1 yd to the Tenn 26Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
84.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 19
OWN 16
-5
85.5%
[SHOT], PENALTY UT false start 5 yards to the UT11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
87.0%
Jarrett Guarantano run for 13 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+48
84.9%
Jarrett Guarantano pass complete to Jeff George for 48 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:33
Stephen Johnson run for 11 yds for a TD, (Stephen Johnson pass to Benny Snell Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)
+56.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.1
TD · Q2 1:25
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com