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UK

Kentucky 7 at Mississippi State 45

MSST
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+26.6Home team on offense+2.7Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:13: Blake Bone 0 Yd Fumble Return (Austin MacGinnis Kick) — UK win probability +4.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 1:05: Nick Fitzgerald run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +5.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:07: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 10 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +8.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:20: Keytaon Thompson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:29: Stephen Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Gerri Green return for 84 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UK 4th & 4 at UK 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:26MSST 4th & 1 at UK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    82.0%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:38UK 4th & 12 at UK 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:35MSST 4th & 5 at UK 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:06UK 4th & 5 at UK 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:14MSST 4th & 2 at UK 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.8%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:08UK 4th & 1 at UK 27, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05MSST 4th & 1 at UK 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.0%−1.4
    34% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:23UK 4th & 1 at UK 49, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:01UK 4th & 12 at UK 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:16MSST 4th & 2 at UK 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:14UK 4th & 13 at MSST 32, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:51UK 4th & 9 at UK 26, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:43MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:13UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:05MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:07MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:20MSST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:29MSST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:56MSST Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
84.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
84.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 2 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
84.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
84.0%
Matt Panton punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:4383% → 84%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
83.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 17 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
83.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 7 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
83.4%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
50
+7
83.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 7 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+9
83.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 9 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
83.5%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
83.5%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+10
83.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+13
83.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
83.5%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
83.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 3Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
83.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
83.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Kent 14Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 15
OWN 14
0
83.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Mark McLaurinSimilar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+3
83.5%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 12
OWN 17
0
83.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Tolando ClevelandSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 12
OWN 17
+10
83.7%
Matt Panton punt for 44 yds , Donald Gray returns for 10 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
83.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
83.7%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+1
83.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 1 yd to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
83.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 38 yds, downed at the Kent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:5417% → 18%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
83.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Mark McLaurinSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
83.3%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 11Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+8
83.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 8 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
83.1%
Sihiem King run for 7 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-1
83.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 25Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+17
83.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 17 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
82.8%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 41Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
83.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Josh Ali for 6 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
81.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Lynn Bowden Jr.Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
82.2%
Matt Panton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 0:5382% → 82%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
82.3%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 7Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+11
82.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 11 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+2
82.0%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
82.4%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
82.5%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
82.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
82.5%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+8
83.1%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
83.2%
Fitzgerald,Nick pass complete to Gray,Donald for 14 yards to the UK39 (Chris Westry), PENALTY MS holding (Gibson,Nick) 10 yards to the MS37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+3
82.5%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+1
82.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 41
0
82.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
81.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7FUMBLE RETURN TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:5019% → 25%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
81.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 23 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
80.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 48Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+15
80.3%
Lynn Bowden Jr. pass incomplete to Blake Bone, PENALTY MS pass interference (Rayford,Chris) 15 yards to the MS37, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
80.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson, broken up by Jeffery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+14
80.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 14 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
79.2%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Braxton Hoyett and Dezmond Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+3
79.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
75.2%
Blake Bone 0 Yd Fumble Return (Austin MacGinnis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:5178% → 78%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
77.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas, broken up by Darius WestSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
77.1%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
77.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
78.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+21
78.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 21 yds to the Kent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
78.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
78.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+7
77.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 7 yds to the Kent 13Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+31
77.5%
Jace Christmann 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
76.3%
Sihiem King run for 8 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+1
75.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
76.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Willie Gay Jr.Similar
Q2 3:08
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
77.1%
Matt Panton punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:1076% → 84%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
76.4%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
77.6%
Fitzgerald,Nick pass incomplete to Thomas,Jordan, PENALTY UK pass interference (Derrick Baity) 11 yards to the UK49, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
78.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 5 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
78.5%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
78.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe Myles, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+40
83.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:3717% → 17%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 7 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
82.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 8 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
82.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 9 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
81.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
82.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
82.9%
Matt Panton punt for 45 yds, downed at the MisSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
83.4%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:5385% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
85.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
84.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
85.1%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-10
85.5%
Fitzgerald,Nick pass complete to Williams,Aeris for 10 yards to the 50 yardline (Jordan Jones), PENALTY MS holding (Jenkins,Elgton) 10 yards to the MS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+9
84.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 9 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+7
84.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
85.6%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+24
85.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 24 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
85.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-5
85.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Stewart Reese) to the Kent 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+6
85.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+4
85.2%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
85.8%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
94.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 10 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
93.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 17 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
92.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
92.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-9
92.7%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Dezmond Harris and Montez Sweat for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 36Similar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
93.4%
Matt Panton punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
94.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 17 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
95.0%
Fitzgerald,Nick pass incomplete to Todd,Reggie, PENALTY UK roughing passer (Kordell Looney) 15 yards to the UK40, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
95.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Nick Gibson, broken up by Josh AllenSimilar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
95.0%
Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+2
95.0%
Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
94.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green, broken up by Josh AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
94.3%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+10
94.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 10 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
94.3%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted Braxton Hoyett return for 2 yds to the Kent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:4296% → 99%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
95.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 1:02
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+12
95.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 12 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
96.5%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
96.5%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+5
96.4%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
96.5%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+2
96.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
99.1%
Keytaon Thompson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
99.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18INT TD
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:411% → 0%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
98.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+9
98.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
98.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Benny Snell Jr.Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
98.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+84
99.9%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted for a TD Gerri Green return for 84 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:150% → 0%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Asim Rose run for 9 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.9%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Drew Barker pass incomplete to Charles Walker, broken up by Marquiss SpencerSimilar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+28
99.9%
Drew Barker pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 28 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
99.9%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+1
99.9%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 11
OPP 30
-2
99.9%
Asim Rose run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 13
OPP 32
-6
99.9%
Drew Barker sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 4 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+8
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 2 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+40
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Asim Rose run for 1 yd to the Kent 26Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
100.0%
Drew Barker rush for 7 yards to the UK33 (Sweat,Montez), PENALTY UK holding (Drake Jackson) 10 yards to the UK16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+2
100.0%
Asim Rose run for 2 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+8
100.0%
Asim Rose run for 8 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Matt Panton punt for 67 yds, downed at the MisSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
100.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 12
OWN 5
-1
100.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:07
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 10 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q2 1:05
Nick Fitzgerald run for 40 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q2 7:13
Blake Bone 0 Yd Fumble Return (Austin MacGinnis Kick)
-4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com