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LSU

LSU 40 at Ole Miss 24

MISS
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 9:29: Gary Wunderlich 39 Yd Field Goal — MISS win probability +4.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:04: Danny Etling 5 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick) — LSU win probability +11.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:11: Jordan Wilkins 28 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +18.2 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:31: J.D. Moore 11 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Connor Culp Kick) — LSU win probability +11.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:24: Foster Moreau 60 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Connor Culp Kick) — LSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 8LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:09MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:53MISS 4th & 1 at LSU 15, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.1%−0.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:45MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−1.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:50LSU 4th & 17 at LSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:10MISS 4th & 3 at LSU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:31LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:17LSU 4th & 6 at MISS 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00MISS 4th & 1 at LSU 9, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.9%−1.8
    89% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:02LSU 4th & 2 at MISS 15, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%−0.9
    83% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−8.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:29MISS 4th & 4 at LSU 22, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−6.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:34MISS 4th & 5 at LSU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    16.9%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:06LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:03MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:07LSU 4th & 7 at MISS 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:52LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:04LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:11MISS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:31LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:24LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:51MISS Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4627% → 27%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
27.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 14:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
27.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
27.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 56 yds, downed at the LSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:2273% → 71%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
27.4%
Derrius Guice run for 13 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Breeland Speaks) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
27.5%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+63
27.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 63 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
27.8%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 7Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
28.0%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Miss 6Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-12
28.4%
Danny Etling sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 12 yards to the Miss 18Similar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+35
28.6%
Connor Culp 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:4229% → 32%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
28.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 14 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
28.9%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Metcalf, D.K., PENALTY LSU pass interference (Toliver II, Kevin) 15 yards to the OLEMISS47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
29.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 7
50
+13
29.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dawson Knox for 13 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
29.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D'Vaughn Pennamon for 2 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+3
30.4%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 3 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+8
30.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 8 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
30.8%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
31.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
30.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dawson Knox for 5 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+31
31.6%
Gary Wunderlich 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4369% → 73%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.2%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+59
31.0%
Derrius Guice run for 59 yds to the Miss 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
27.3%
Derrius Guice 7 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:5529% → 28%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
29.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
28.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
28.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-5
28.3%
Shea Patterson sacked by Christian LaCouture and Devin White for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
28.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds, downed at the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:4572% → 70%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
28.4%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
28.3%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-5
29.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+5
29.2%
Etling, Danny pass complete to Gage, Russell for 8 yards to the LSU27, PENALTY OLEMISS offside (Jones, Benito) 5 yards to the LSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-10
29.0%
Danny Etling sacked by Breeland Speaks for a loss of 10 yards to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 0:50
4TH & 17
OWN 14
0
29.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Brown at the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2030% → 30%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-6
30.1%
Shea Patterson sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 40 Shea Patterson fumbled, forced by Arden Key, recovered by MissSimilar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 16
OWN 40
0
29.4%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+13
29.0%
Shea Patterson run for 13 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
30.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 7:2470% → 71%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
29.7%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+3
29.4%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+9
29.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 9 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
29.5%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+3
28.8%
Russell Gage run for 3 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
29.1%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
28.4%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
28.4%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
28.3%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-10
28.3%
Williams, Darrel rush for 5 yards to the OLEMISS47, PENALTY LSU holding (Clapp, Will) 10 yards to the LSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 18
OWN 38
0
28.3%
Danny Etling sacked by Breeland Speaks for 0 yards to the LSU 38Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 18
OWN 38
+6
28.6%
Danny Etling run for 6 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
29.4%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:2629% → 31%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
29.3%
Eric Swinney run for 12 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
29.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 5 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
31.2%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Grant Delpit return for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 4:1871% → 75%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
29.0%
Danny Etling run for 5 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+11
28.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 11 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
28.1%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+9
27.4%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
27.3%
Etling, Danny pass incomplete to Chark, D.J., PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Hamilton, Javien) 15 yards to the OLEMISS37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
26.1%
Darrel Williams run for 8 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
25.4%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
24.7%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
24.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen Sullivan, broken up by Ken WebsterSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
25.0%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
25.3%
Connor Culp 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11END OF HALF
13 plays · 66 yds · 1:0725% → 30%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
25.1%
Eric Swinney run for 15 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
26.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
25.8%
Eric Swinney run for 13 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
27.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Van Jefferson for 14 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
27.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to D.K. Metcalf, broken up by Devin WhiteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
26.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 15 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
27.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to Eric SwinneySimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
27.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Van Jefferson for 9 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
25.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+26
29.5%
Gary Wunderlich 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:4873% → 76%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+48
26.1%
Derrius Guice run for 48 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
24.3%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
24.2%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
24.7%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 12:02
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+32
23.6%
Connor Culp 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FG
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:3125% → 30%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
25.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
25.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. Brown, broken up by Grant DelpitSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+8
25.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 8 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
26.5%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Van Jefferson) to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
25.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+9
25.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 9 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 10:04
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+2
25.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+39
29.8%
Gary Wunderlich 39 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:1173% → 89%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
27.1%
Derrius Guice run for 11 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
26.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 11 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+33
24.7%
Derrius Guice run for 33 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
23.0%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+9
22.9%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
22.9%
Russell Gage run for 5 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.5%
Danny Etling 5 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 1:4415% → 34%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
15.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 14 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
16.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
16.2%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Jefferson, Van, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Toliver II, Kevin) 13 yards to the LSU42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
16.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+5
16.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dawson Knox for 5 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
15.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+9
15.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dawson Knox for 9 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
33.5%
Jordan Wilkins 28 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2977% → 90%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+33
23.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 18 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
22.1%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+26
21.9%
Derrius Guice run for 26 yds to the Miss 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
10.0%
J.D. Moore 11 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Connor Culp Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17INT
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:1014% → 15%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+40
13.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dawson Knox for 40 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
15.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
15.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2489% → 90%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
11.4%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+14
11.2%
Derrius Guice run for 14 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
10.7%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
10.0%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
8.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 4
OWN 39
-5
9.4%
LSU Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
9.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 44 yds, fair catch by A.J. Brown at the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4212% → 11%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
11.9%
Shea Patterson sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+15
11.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 15 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-2
11.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 12:03
4TH & 5
OWN 27
-2
11.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 52 yds , D.J. Chark returns for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 81 yds · 1:3192% → 98%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
8.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 13 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
7.6%
Derrick Dillon run for 6 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
6.7%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+60
1.6%
Foster Moreau 60 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Connor Culp Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.5%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Kevin Toliver II return for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 4:5398% → 99%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
1.6%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
1.6%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+22
1.4%
Danny Etling run for 7 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
1.3%
Darrel Williams run for 7 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+5
1.2%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
1.1%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 32Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+1
1.1%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-16
1.1%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-16 Yards) to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 24
OPP 47
+17
0.9%
Darrel Williams run for 17 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
0.9%
Connor Culp 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:091% → 4%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
1.1%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 10 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
1.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 3 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+17
1.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to A.J. Brown for 17 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
1.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 12
OPP 38
+2
1.0%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 2 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+13
1.0%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 13 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
1.2%
Jordan Ta'amu pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 12 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
1.1%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 7 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
4.1%
D'Vaughn Pennamon 4 Yd Run (Jordan Ta'amu Pass to Dawson Knox for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:3098% → 98%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
2.0%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+9
1.9%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
1.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:11
Jordan Wilkins 28 Yd Run (Gary Wunderlich Kick)
+18.2
TD · Q3 2:31
J.D. Moore 11 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Connor Culp Kick)
-11.9
TD · Q3 6:04
Danny Etling 5 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)
-11.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com