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AUB

Auburn 52 at Arkansas 20

ARK
2017 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2017 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Cole Kelley run for 1 yd to the Aub 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior−31.8Home team on offense−2.2Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:00: Blake Johnson punt for 31 yds, downed at the Ark 41 — ARK win probability +2.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:40: Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Kevin Richardson II return for 7 yds to the Ark 38 — AUB win probability +2.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:57: Aidan Marshall punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ark 27 — AUB win probability +9.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:44: Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the Aub 2 — ARK win probability +16.6 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:07: Malik Miller run for 3 yds to the Aub 47 Malik Miller fumbled, forced by Grant Morgan, recovered by Ark Dylan Hays — AUB win probability +4.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00ARK 4th & 1 at AUB 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ARK 4th & 28 at ARK 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:11AUB 4th & 1 at ARK 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    77.5%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:00ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 10, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:29ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:00AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:34ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−3.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:57AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:44ARK 4th & 12 at AUB 34, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00ARK 4th & 12 at AUB 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
12.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete, broken up by Jamel DeanSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
12.9%
Cole Kelley run for 5 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
12.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete, broken up by Jordyn PetersSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
12.9%
Blake Johnson punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
13.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 8 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+8
13.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
13.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
13.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for no gain to the Aub 40Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
13.2%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 35Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+50
13.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 50 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.8%
David Williams run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
13.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 18 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
14.0%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+17
14.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 17 yds to the ARKANSAS 37 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
14.0%
Cole Kelley run for 14 yds to the Aub 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
14.1%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
14.1%
Deon Stewart run for no gain to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+5
14.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 5 yds to the Aub 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 0:0084% → 86%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
16.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+22
16.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 22 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
15.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+2
15.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+5
15.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
15.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
15.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 2 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+7
15.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
15.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+1
15.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Ark 11Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
15.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Ark 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
15.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
15.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 8 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
+12
14.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 12 yds to the Ark 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 1:0417% → 18%
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
16.6%
Cole Kelley rush for 4 yards to the AR29 (Jeff Holland), PENALTY AR holding (Jeremy Patton) 10 yards to the AR15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+15
16.5%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to C. O'Grady, PENALTY AU pass interference (Daniel Thomas) 15 yards to the AR30, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
16.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Chase Hayden for 23 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
17.5%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 48
0
17.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+12
17.2%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 12 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
17.9%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
17.4%
Cole Kelley run for 1 yd to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
18.0%
Cole Kelley sacked by Jeremiah Dinson for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 45
-10
17.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Chase Hayden, QB hurry by Jeff Holland, PENALTY AR holding (Paul Ramirez) 10 yards to the AR45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 28
OWN 45
0
17.1%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 28
OWN 45
0
16.8%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 28
OWN 45
0
18.4%
Blake Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6FG
8 plays · 59 yds · 0:0080% → 83%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
19.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 3 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+45
19.8%
Eli Stove run for 45 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
18.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+26
18.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 26 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
18.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
18.4%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
18.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 2Similar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
16.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Ark 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FG
4 plays · 67 yds · 0:0018% → 20%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
18.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+6
18.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the Ark 8Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+2
17.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
20.2%
Blake Johnson punt for 31 yds, downed at the Ark 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8FG
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:0080% → 83%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
20.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-2
20.1%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 39Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+7
17.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass intercepted Kevin Richardson II return for 7 yds to the Ark 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
18.9%
David Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-2
19.7%
Deon Stewart run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-5
18.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
17.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
17.6%
Blake Johnson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
18.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
18.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
18.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton AUBURN Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+2
19.3%
Aidan Marshall punt for 39 yds , Henre' Toliver returns for 2 yds to the Ark 41 Henre' Toliver fumbled, recovered by Aub Darrell WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 87 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
16.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
16.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
16.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+13
16.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 13 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
16.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
16.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ark 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
18.8%
Chase Hayden run for 40 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
21.9%
Cole Kelley sacked for loss of 6 yards to the AU41 (Andrew Williams), PENALTY AR holding (Frank Ragnow) 10 yards to the AU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+16
20.2%
David Williams run for 16 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+4
21.9%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
21.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 15
OPP 30
0
21.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+8
20.8%
Cole Kelley run for 8 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+2
21.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Brandon Martin for 2 yds to the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14INT
10 plays · 2 yds · 0:0081% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
18.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+18
18.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 18 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
17.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
17.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
17.2%
Jarrett Stidham run for 13 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
16.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+8
16.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 8 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
16.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 14 yds to the Ark 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15INT
9 plays · 2 yds · 2:3621% → 19%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
20.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
21.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
21.1%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
20.6%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:34
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-7
19.3%
Cole Kelley sacked by Derrick Brown for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 28 Cole Kelley fumbled, recovered by Ark , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:34
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
18.6%
Blake Johnson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0081% → 82%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
18.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 2 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
18.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 4 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+26
18.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 26 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 24%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
21.1%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
21.4%
Cole Kelley run for 2 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
21.6%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
22.6%
Cole Kelley run for 5 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+17
22.8%
David Williams run for 17 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
24.2%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
25.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-3
23.8%
Cole Kelley sacked by Jeff Holland and Marlon Davidson for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 38 Cole Kelley fumbled, recovered by Aub Deshaun Davis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:0081% → 91%
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
19.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
18.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
18.5%
Kerryon Johnson rush for 2 yards to the AU36 (Briston Guidry), PENALTY AR offside defense (Karl Roesler) 5 yards to the AU39, 1ST DOWN AU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
17.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan Davis, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
17.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
18.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
9.4%
Aidan Marshall punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ark 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
13 plays · 41 yds · 0:007% → 26%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.2%
David Williams run for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
7.7%
David Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
7.9%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
8.5%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
8.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 17 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
9.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Will Gragg for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-9
9.5%
Cole Kelley sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 16
OPP 38
+4
7.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 4 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 12
OPP 34
+16
7.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to La'Michael Pettway for 16 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
9.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 12 yds to the Aub 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
9.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
26.1%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the Aub 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20FG
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
28.0%
Cole Kelley sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 23 Cole Kelley fumbled, recovered by Aub Jeff Holland , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FG
6 plays · 55 yds · 0:0085% → 91%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
15.3%
Malik Miller run for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
14.4%
Malik Miller run for 6 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
13.4%
Malik Miller run for 2 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
13.3%
Malik Miller run for 4 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
9.2%
Malik Miller run for 3 yds to the Aub 47 Malik Miller fumbled, forced by Grant Morgan, recovered by Ark Dylan HaysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
16.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+6
16.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+25
16.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Brandon Martin for 25 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24FUMBLE
10 plays · 0 yds · 0:2820% → 19%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.3%
Cole Kelley run for 6 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
21.7%
Devwah Whaley rush for no gain to the AR31 (Andrew Williams), PENALTY AU offside defense 5 yards to the AR36, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
21.3%
Cole Kelley run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-1
22.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Devwah Whaley for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+16
20.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 16 yds to the Aub 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
24.6%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
24.0%
Cole Kelley sacked by Nick Coe and T.D. Moultry for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
21.6%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
19.3%
Blake Johnson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 86%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+48
18.1%
Malik Willis run for 48 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
14.6%
Kam Martin run for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
14.4%
Devan Barrett run for 4 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+14
15.0%
Malik Willis run for 14 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
14.4%
Devan Barrett run for 6 yds to the Ark 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:44
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the Aub 2
+16.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.4
TD · Q3 3:57
Aidan Marshall punt for 34 yds, downed at the Ark 27
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com