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BYU

BYU 10 at Mississippi State 35

MSST
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:42 · Logan Cooke punt for 57 yds , Michael Shelton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior+39.8Home team on offense+2.1Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.9Blowout margin−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:07: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:22: Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:00: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 32 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:44: Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 27 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK) — BYU win probability +3.2 pts (now 4%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:20: Aeris Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00BYU 4th & 4 at MSST 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:15BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:42MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 26, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:20BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:35BYU 4th & 7 at MSST 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:54BYU 4th & 7 at MSST 48, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:21MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 13, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:52BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 41, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:07BYU 4th & 12 at MSST 31, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:55MSST 4th & 1 at BYU 21, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.6
    74% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:12BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 16, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:47MSST 4th & 5 at midfield, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:40BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 22, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:15MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:07MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:22MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:00MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:44BYU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:20MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
94.8%
Brayden El-Bakri run for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
94.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Ula Tolutau for 2 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
94.8%
Ula Tolutau run for 1 yd to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
94.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 4 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
94.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Brayden El-Bakri for 5 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
94.8%
Ula Tolutau run for 2 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
94.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 1 yd to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
94.8%
Ula Tolutau run for no gain to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+5
94.8%
Brayden El-Bakri run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
94.8%
Jonny Linehan punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 4:0894% → 94%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
93.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+2
93.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 2 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+20
93.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 20 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
93.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
93.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
93.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 7 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 20 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
93.8%
Aeris Williams run for 19 yds to the BYU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
93.8%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the BYU 15Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Ula Tolutau run for no gain to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Trey Dye for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
93.4%
Jonny Linehan punt for 47 yds, downed at the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
93.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
93.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+1
93.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 3
OWN 26
-2
92.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 57 yds , Michael Shelton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
92.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 15 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
92.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
92.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Ula Tolutau for 9 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
92.5%
Austin Kafentzis run for no gain to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
92.7%
Jonny Linehan punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6INT
15 plays · 74 yds · 2:4993% → 93%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
92.5%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
92.5%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
92.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 20 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
92.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 11 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
92.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Jamal Couch) to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+9
92.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
92.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
92.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+13
92.4%
Fitzgerald,Nick pass incomplete to Gray,Donald, PENALTY BYU pass interference (WARNER, T.) 13 yards to the BYU20, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
92.8%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
92.7%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+4
92.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
92.7%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+67
92.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Dayan Ghanwoloku return for 67 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
90.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
90.8%
Ula Tolutau run for 3 yds to the MisSt 26 Ula Tolutau fumbled, forced by Jeffery Simmons, recovered by MisSt Marquiss SpencerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:0192% → 94%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
91.8%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
92.0%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
92.2%
Fitzgerald,Nick pass incomplete to Green,Farrod, PENALTY BYU pass interference (JACOBSON, T.) 9 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN MS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
50
+11
92.2%
Nick Gibson run for 11 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
92.3%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+3
92.4%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the BYU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
92.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+18
92.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 18 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:326% → 8%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.7%
Brayden El-Bakri run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
93.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 6 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+43
93.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 43 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
93.0%
MANGUM, T. pass incomplete to SIMON, M., PENALTY BYU ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY MS pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
93.0%
Austin Kafentzis run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
93.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+4
93.5%
Brayden El-Bakri run for 4 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+38
92.4%
Rhett Almond 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 3:1393% → 95%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.7%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
92.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
92.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
93.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 10 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
93.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Troy WarnerSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
93.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
93.1%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
93.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+13
92.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 13 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
93.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
93.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Chris WilcoxSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
95.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
95.4%
Cooke,Logan kickoff 65 yards to the BYU0, TRINNAMAN, J. return to the BYU21 (Jung,Traver;Abram,Johnathan), PENALTY MS offside (Washington,Tim) 5 yards to the MS30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
95.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0095% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.9%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
94.9%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.1%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+17
95.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 17 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
95.1%
Kylin Hill run for 12 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
95.1%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+32
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 32 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
98.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
98.4%
Ula Tolutau run for 5 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+11
98.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
98.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Austin Kafentzis for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Leo Lewis) to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
98.3%
Ula Tolutau run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
98.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Aleva Hifo, broken up by Gerri GreenSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
98.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by J.T. GraySimilar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
98.4%
Jonny Linehan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
99.0%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
99.0%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
99.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
98.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 52 yds , Michael Shelton returns for no gain to the BYU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Beau Tanner for 3 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
98.6%
Ula Tolutau run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+2
98.6%
Brayden El-Bakri run for 2 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 4
OWN 41
-8
98.7%
Corey Edwards punt for 39 yds , Donald Gray returns for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16INT
10 plays · 64 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
99.2%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+12
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 12 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 11 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
99.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.3%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
99.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
99.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the BYU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
99.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 14 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
99.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Dayan Ghanwoloku return for 38 yds to the MisSt 0 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Darryl Williams) to the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:141% → 4%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
99.2%
MANGUM, T. pass incomplete to TRINNAMAN, J., PENALTY MS personal foul (Sweat,Montez) 15 yards to the MS27, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
96.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 27 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:304% → 4%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
96.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Jonah Trinnaman for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-4
96.2%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
96.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Aleva Hifo, broken up by Brandon BryantSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+30
96.5%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted Brandon Bryant return for 30 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 6:3598% → 100%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
97.7%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+9
97.7%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
97.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 6 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
97.9%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
97.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
97.9%
Fitzgerald,Nick pass complete to Mixon,Keith for 6 yards to the BYU24 (HANNEMANN, M.), PENALTY MS ineligible downfield on pass (Jenkins,Elgton) 5 yards to the BYU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+5
97.9%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+7
97.9%
Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
97.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 13:55
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+4
97.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 4 yds to the BYU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
97.9%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+4
97.9%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.6%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
99.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Riley Burt for 3 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+1
99.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 1 yd to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
99.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 6
OWN 16
0
99.4%
Jonny Linehan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
99.8%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-1
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jesse Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 5
50
0
99.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Joe Critchlow pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.4%
Joe Critchlow pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 2 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
99.4%
Joe Critchlow pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
99.5%
Jonny Linehan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
99.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
99.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+8
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the BYU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:00
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 32 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q3 0:44
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 27 yds for a TD, (Rhett Almond KICK)
-3.2
TD · Q2 0:22
Nick Fitzgerald run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com