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VAN

Vanderbilt 35 at Ole Miss 57

MISS
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:46 · Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense+24.7Score differential+15.8Garbage-time factor+4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.7Pregame prior+1.8Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:43: Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 35 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +8.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:20: Jordan Wilkins run for 18 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +8.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:04: Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +12.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:37: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 13 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +9.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:12: Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK) — MISS win probability +10.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33VAN 4th & 15 at MISS 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:33MISS 4th & 2 at VAN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.0%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:23VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:48VAN 4th & 21 at VAN 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:49MISS 4th & 13 at VAN 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:04MISS 4th & 19 at MISS 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:06VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:40VAN 4th & 3 at MISS 13, down 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%−0.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:40MISS 4th & 6 at VAN 42, up 23
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:46VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 17, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:46VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 29, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:32MISS 4th & 2 at VAN 5, up 23
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:46MISS 4th & 3 at VAN 8, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−2.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:46VAN 4th & 15 at VAN 20, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:54MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:52VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:43MISS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:13MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:20MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:04MISS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:37VAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 13:12MISS Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:39VAN Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:29MISS Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:17VAN Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
55.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 3 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
55.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
55.0%
Shea Patterson sacked by Emmanuel Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 18Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
55.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 41 yds, downed at the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:4845% → 45%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
55.0%
Ralph Webb run for 21 yds to the Miss 23 Ralph Webb fumbled, forced by Jaylon Jones, recovered by Vandy C.J. Duncan for a 1ST down , return for 10 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
54.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
54.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by A.J. MooreSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 21
-5
55.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+5
55.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, PENALTY OM offside (Breeland Speaks) 5 yards to the OM21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 21
-7
55.0%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 15
OPP 28
+46
55.4%
Tommy Openshaw 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
55.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 11 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
55.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
55.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 7 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+19
55.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 19 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
55.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 8 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
55.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 2
OPP 27
0
55.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Vandy 27Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 2
OPP 27
-2
55.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
55.4%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
55.3%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 32Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
55.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
55.8%
Sam Loy punt for 42 yds, downed at the Miss 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:5156% → 59%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
55.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 16 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
56.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+58
59.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 58 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
58.7%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Ryder Anderson and Austrian Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 16Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+4
58.8%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 20Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-10
59.1%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by DeMarquis Gates for a loss of 10 yards to the Vandy 10Similar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 21
OWN 10
0
59.3%
Sam Loy punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
60.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van Jefferson, PENALTY OM face mask (Javon Patterson) 15 yards to the OM43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+2
60.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 2 yds to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 23
OWN 45
+10
60.1%
Shea Patterson run for 10 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
59.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete, broken up by Jared SouthersSimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
59.2%
Will Gleeson punt for 42 yds, downed at the Vandy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8TD
8 plays · 97 yds · 4:3640% → 47%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
60.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+3
60.3%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+7
60.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 7 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
60.1%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 19Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+15
60.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 15 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
59.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+23
59.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 23 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
53.5%
Ralph Webb run for 38 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
56.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 17
OWN 18
-9
56.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-9 Yards) to the Miss 9Similar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 26
OWN 9
-5
56.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Eric Swinney for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 4Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 31
OWN 4
0
56.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q2 14:04
3RD & 31
OWN 4
+12
55.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 12 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q2 14:04
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
55.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds, downed at the Vandy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:3046% → 55%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
53.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+38
53.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 38 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
52.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 12 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
52.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 3 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:0948% → 61%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.6%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
47.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 27 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
49.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 15 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
51.7%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+35
60.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 35 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
55.2%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 27 Kyle Shurmur fumbled, recovered by Miss Benito Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13TD
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2261% → 69%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
61.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+25
60.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 25 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
61.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (D.K. Metcalf) to the Vandy 7Similar
Q2 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
61.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Vandy 4Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.9%
Shea Patterson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
66.1%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
65.9%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
66.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by Tayler PolkSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
67.3%
Sam Loy punt for 35 yds, downed at the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:1568% → 78%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
67.7%
Shea Patterson run for 6 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
69.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 7 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+34
69.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 34 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
69.7%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
77.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 18 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16INT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
75.7%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by DeMarquis Gates for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 19Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
76.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb Scott, broken up by Javien HamiltonSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+11
76.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass intercepted Javien Hamilton return for 11 yds to the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:1679% → 91%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
78.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 11 yds to the Vandy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
78.6%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Jordan WilkinsSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+12
78.6%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (Dare Odeyingbo) to the Vandy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
78.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Vandy 6Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2711% → 23%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
88.7%
Donaven Tennyson run for 48 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
86.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 11 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
86.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
86.9%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+13
77.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 13 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19END OF HALF
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0681% → 79%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
81.0%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 10 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
80.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 14 yds to the Vandy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
80.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. Metcalf, broken up by Tre HerndonSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
80.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
79.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. Brown, broken up by Oren BurksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20SF
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:5521% → 19%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
79.1%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
79.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Jaylon JonesSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
80.6%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 8 yards for a SAFETY Kyle Shurmur fumbled, recovered by Vandy Justin Skule , return for 0 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 0:5083% → 93%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
50
+17
82.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 17 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
82.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+29
92.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:259% → 7%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
90.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 13 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
91.0%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
90.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+8
90.8%
Ralph Webb run for 8 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
90.2%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Miss 16Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
90.3%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 3
OPP 13
0
90.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+31
92.9%
Tommy Openshaw 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
94.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 21Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+14
94.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 14 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
94.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 8 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+11
94.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.6%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-7
94.6%
Shea Patterson sacked by Cameron Tidd for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 47Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+11
94.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 11 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
94.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
95.3%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+4
95.1%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 17Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 17
0
95.2%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 17Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+3
95.2%
Ralph Webb run for 3 yds to the Vandy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
95.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by C.J. HamptonSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
95.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 9 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-2
95.0%
Khari Blasingame run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1097% → 99%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
97.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 14 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
97.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 8 yds to the Vandy 5Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 2
OPP 5
-5
97.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the Vandy 10Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+5
97.3%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive offside (Dare Odeyingbo) to the Vandy 5Similar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
97.3%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for no gain to the Vandy 5Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
99.2%
Luke Logan 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:481% → 8%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija Lipscomb, broken up by Javien HamiltonSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
99.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 8 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q3 1:27
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+37
99.2%
Ralph Webb run for 37 yds to the OLEMISS 22 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
99.1%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Miss 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+21
99.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 21 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, roughing passer (Ross Donelly) to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:5396% → 99%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Eric Swinney, broken up by Jonathan WynnSimilar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
96.2%
Eric Swinney run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+11
96.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Eric Swinney for 11 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
96.5%
Eric Swinney run for 5 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+15
96.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Tre Nixon, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Tre Herndon) 15 yards to the VANDY34, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
96.6%
Eric Swinney run for 9 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+10
96.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 10 yds to the Vandy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
96.6%
Eric Swinney run for 2 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
96.6%
Eric Swinney run for 2 yds to the Vandy 11Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+3
96.5%
Eric Swinney run for 3 yds to the Vandy 8Similar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
99.0%
Luke Logan 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by Breeland SpeaksSimilar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 4 yards to the VANDY29, out-of-bounds (Tayler Polk), PENALTY OM offside (Marquis Haynes) 5 yards to the VANDY30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
98.5%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Josiah Coatney for a loss of 10 yards to the Vandy 20Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q4 9:46
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
98.7%
Sam Loy punt for 46 yds, downed at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 29TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:5799% → 100%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
99.2%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 11 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.9%
Eric Swinney run for 55 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 30TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 4:070% → 1%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Khari Blasingame run for 15 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+13
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Caleb Scott for 13 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Cam OrdwaySimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+21
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 21 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 12 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
99.9%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (Deuce Wallace) to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
-15
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 14 yards to the OM0, clock 04:19, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (Caleb Scott) 15 yards to the OM29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 29
+15
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass incomplete to Trent Sherfield, PENALTY OM pass interference (C.J. Hampton) 15 yards to the OM14, 1ST DOWN VANDY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 3 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+5
99.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (Ross Donelly) to the Miss 6Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
99.2%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryley Guay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 31END OF GAME
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
D.K. Buford run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
99.6%
D.K. Buford run for 3 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
99.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 14 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.7%
Jordan Ta'amu run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 3
50
+6
99.7%
Eugene Brazley run for 6 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
99.7%
Eugene Brazley run for 3 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:04
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 6 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q3 13:12
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Luke Logan KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 0:37
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 13 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com