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AUB

Auburn 23 at LSU 27

LSU
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:33 · Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 4 yds to the Aub 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−12.6Pregame prior−4.8Score differential−4.7Garbage-time factor−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:30: Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:16: Daniel Carlson 26 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +8.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:32: Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 14 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — LSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 2:36: Connor Culp 42 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +30.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:38: Connor Culp 36 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:07AUB 4th & 6 at LSU 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:30LSU 4th & 2 at LSU 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:50AUB 4th & 21 at LSU 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:19LSU 4th & 1 at AUB 1, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:19AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:52LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:16AUB 4th & 8 at LSU 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−6.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00LSU 4th & 12 at AUB 40, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:31AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 37, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:33LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 25, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:31AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 35, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:06LSU 4th & 9 at AUB 49, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:33AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 25, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:26AUB 4th & 1 at midfield, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.7 ptsPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%−6.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:28LSU 4th & 12 at AUB 36, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.6 ptsPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−2.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%−2.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:47AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 5, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−6.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:36LSU 4th & 1 at AUB 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−2.4
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−24.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:49AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 25, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 2.4 ptsWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%−2.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:38LSU 4th & 4 at AUB 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−3.3
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−28.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:07AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:31AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:30AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:19LSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:32LSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:5364% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+20
36.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 20 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
36.2%
LSU Penalty, personal foul (Andraez Williams) to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
36.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 1 yd to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+3
36.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
36.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete, broken up by Grant DelpitSimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
36.7%
Daniel Carlson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 39 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.8%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
36.8%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+39
36.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 39 yds D.J. Chark fumbled, forced by Stephen Roberts, recovered by Aub Carlton Davis , return for 12 yds to the Aub 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:3663% → 64%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
36.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+49
35.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 49 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.3%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
36.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
36.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 14 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
36.4%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
36.5%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 1
50
-5
36.5%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
36.2%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds, downed at the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:4664% → 70%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
35.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+10
35.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 10 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
35.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
35.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
35.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 8 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-10
35.4%
Kerryon Johnson rush for 21 yards to the LSU24, out-of-bounds (Eric Monroe), PENALTY AU holding (Darius James) 10 yards to the AU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-1
35.8%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Greg Gilmore for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+52
36.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 52 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
29.9%
Danny Etling sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 21Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
29.8%
Darrel Williams run for 10 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
29.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
29.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 44 yds, downed at the Aub 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 3:3772% → 78%
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
28.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
28.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 13 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
28.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 1:27
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
28.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+25
27.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 25 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
27.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+17
27.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 17 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
27.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-5
27.0%
AUBURN Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 26
0
27.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 26
-5
27.2%
AUBURN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 31Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 21
OPP 31
0
25.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Kerryon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 21
OPP 31
+48
22.2%
Daniel Carlson 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 3:2124% → 32%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
24.2%
Derrius Guice run for 13 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+70
24.3%
Russell Gage run for 70 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
26.8%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the Aub 7Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
26.8%
Derrick Dillon run for 6 yds to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.4%
Derrius Guice rush for loss of 1 yard to the AU2 (Andrew Williams;Marlon Davidson), PENALTY AU offside defense 0 yards to the AU1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.4%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 9:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.1%
Stephen Sullivan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
30.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
30.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
30.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton, broken up by Kevin Toliver IISimilar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
30.6%
Aidan Marshall punt for 48 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 8 yds to the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
30.5%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+1
30.5%
Russell Gage run for 1 yd to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
30.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q2 7:52
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
29.7%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:0571% → 80%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
29.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 9 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+10
28.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
28.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+15
28.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 15 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
28.4%
Kerryon Johnson rush for 2 yards to the LSU30 (Ed Alexander;Eric Monroe), PENALTY LSU substitution infraction 5 yards to the LSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+4
28.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+13
28.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, offside defense (10 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
28.4%
Eli Stove run for 3 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
28.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 8Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
28.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton, broken up by Andraez WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
19.7%
Daniel Carlson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:4424% → 34%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
23.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 37 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
26.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 7 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+4
26.8%
Danny Etling run for 4 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
26.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
26.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 9 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+4
26.2%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the Aub 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
26.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for no gain to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
34.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 14 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
29.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Aub 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
30.7%
Danny Etling sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
30.5%
Derrick Dillon run for 2 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
29.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 14 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
31.8%
Russell Gage pass incomplete to Drake DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
31.6%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
32.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
33.1%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
33.4%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
33.4%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
32.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
31.9%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
30.3%
Josh Growden punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
28.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
28.9%
Jarrett Stidham run for no gain to the Aub 13Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+21
29.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 6 yds to the Aub 19 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, roughing passer (Arden Key) to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
27.6%
Eli Stove run for 4 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+6
26.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
26.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 42Similar
Q3 9:31
2ND & 12
OWN 42
0
27.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton, broken up by Kevin Toliver IISimilar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 12
OWN 42
-5
28.3%
AUBURN Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Aub 37Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 17
OWN 37
0
28.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Will HastingsSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 17
OWN 37
0
29.4%
Aidan Marshall punt for 38 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.0%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
26.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to J.D. MooreSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
25.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
24.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 4 yds to the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
25.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
24.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton, broken up by Grant DelpitSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-1
25.1%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Devin White for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
26.5%
Aidan Marshall punt for 41 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
26.1%
LSU Penalty, false start (Adrian Magee) to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+31
25.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 31 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
50
-1
29.1%
Justin McMillan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+2
27.9%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
27.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
25.6%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2577% → 57%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
22.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
22.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
22.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q4 14:33
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+75
42.8%
Aidan Marshall punt for 50 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 75 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
38.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
39.0%
Eli Stove run for 8 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
37.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
36.9%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 1
50
0
36.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:26
4TH & 1
50
0
38.9%
Aidan Marshall punt for 23 yds, downed at the LSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
45.3%
Derrius Guice run for 15 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
49.3%
Danny Etling sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 36 LSU Penalty, intentional grounding (Danny Etling) to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+1
45.1%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+29
43.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 29 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
52.9%
Danny Etling sacked by Deshaun Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 36Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
50.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
46.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster Moreau, broken up by Daniel ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
43.7%
Josh Growden punt for 33 yds, downed at the Aub 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0061% → 57%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
39.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 2Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
39.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton, broken up by Eric MonroeSimilar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 11
OWN 2
-1
41.7%
AUBURN Penalty, delay of game (Jarrett Stidham) to the Aub 1Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+4
41.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 4 yds to the Aub 5Similar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 8
OWN 5
0
43.3%
Aidan Marshall punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23FG
9 plays · 19 yds · 4:0452% → 68%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
52.0%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+4
51.8%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+5
51.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 5 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
54.8%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
54.9%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
45.4%
Danny Etling run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+42
68.3%
Connor Culp 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4742% → 33%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Devan Barrett for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Sal Cannella, broken up by Eric MonroeSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
67.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Sal Cannella, broken up by Donte JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25FG
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0076% → 94%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
76.2%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
81.5%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
81.0%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
93.8%
Connor Culp 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3110% → 8%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
89.7%
Jarrett Stidham run for 11 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Will Hastings, broken up by Donte JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
89.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Will Hastings, broken up by Donte JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
91.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius Slayton, broken up by Donte JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 10
OWN 36
-2
91.6%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 2:36
Connor Culp 42 yd FG GOOD
+30.2
FG · Q4 0:38
Connor Culp 36 yd FG GOOD
+15.4
TD · Q2 0:32
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 14 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com