Try the model
ARK

Arkansas 9 at Alabama 41

ALA
2017 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2017 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:05 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:24: Damien Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:20: Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:16: Connor Limpert 30 yd FG GOOD — ARK win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:25: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 20 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:03: Cole Kelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert PAT MISSED) — ARK win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:03ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 25, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36ALA 4th & 6 at ARK 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:27ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:50ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:32ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 20, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:06ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:02ARK 4th & 18 at ALA 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:30ALA 4th & 23 at ARK 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:50ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:50ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:39ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:48ARK 4th & 7 at ALA 45, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:16ARK 4th & 10 at ALA 12, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:55ALA 4th & 3 at ARK 3, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:30ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 48, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:03ARK 4th & 3 at ALA 3, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 14:45ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:24ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:20ALA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:25ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:29ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:03ARK Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
98.7%
Damien Harris run for 75 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:371% → 1%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
98.7%
Cole Kelley run for 5 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
98.7%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+1
98.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 1 yd to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 4
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Blake Johnson fumbled snap, recovered by Blake Johnson, pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
98.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
98.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 3 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
98.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Robert FosterSimilar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
98.5%
Andy Pappanastos 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:332% → 2%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.5%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 1 yd to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
98.5%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Blake Johnson punt for 36 yds, downed at the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:0198% → 99%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
98.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 9 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+10
98.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 10 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
98.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 8 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
98.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
98.3%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+29
98.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 29 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.5%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:102% → 2%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.5%
Chase Hayden run for no gain to the Ark 21Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
98.5%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Brandon Martin for 6 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+15
98.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 15 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
98.4%
Cole Kelley sacked by Shaun Dion Hamilton and Raekwon Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+2
98.4%
Cole Kelley run for 2 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
98.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Austin CantrellSimilar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
98.3%
Blake Johnson punt for 39 yds , Henry Ruggs III returns for no gain to the Alab 18 Henry Ruggs III fumbled, recovered by Alab Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5898% → 98%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
98.4%
Josh Jacobs run for 3 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+2
98.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-3
98.3%
Jalen Hurts sacked by McTelvin Agim and Dwayne Eugene Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
98.3%
JK Scott punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:242% → 2%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
98.2%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 1 yd to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
98.2%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan Nance, broken up by Levi WallaceSimilar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+5
98.2%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Devwah Whaley for 5 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+35
98.3%
Blake Johnson punt for 35 yds , Henry Ruggs III returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 32 Henry Ruggs III fumbled, recovered by Ark Ryder LucasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
98.1%
Chase Hayden run for no gain to the Alab 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-8
98.1%
Cole Kelley sacked by Rashaan Evans for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 18
OPP 40
0
98.2%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q2 14:02
4TH & 18
OPP 40
0
98.2%
Blake Johnson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 47 yds · 5:3098% → 98%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
98.2%
Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+5
98.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
98.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 21 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
98.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-1
98.3%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+27
98.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 27 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
98.3%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
98.3%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-5
98.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Najee Harris) to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 11
OPP 33
-12
98.2%
Jalen Hurts sacked by De'Jon Harris for a loss of 12 yards to the Ark 45Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 23
OPP 45
0
98.2%
JK Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:102% → 2%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
98.0%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 12
0
97.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Austin CantrellSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+3
97.9%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
97.8%
Blake Johnson punt for 42 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for no gain to the Alab 43 Trevon Diggs fumbled, recovered by Alab Trevon DiggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5498% → 98%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Bo ScarbroughSimilar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
98.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
98.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to DeVonta Smith, broken up by Dre GreenlawSimilar
Q2 5:50
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
98.0%
JK Scott punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Deon Stewart at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:062% → 2%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
97.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
97.7%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Brandon MartinSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
97.7%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+1
97.7%
Blake Johnson punt for 49 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 1 yd to the Alab 18 ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1598% → 99%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.1%
Josh Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+16
98.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 16 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
98.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 11 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
98.1%
Josh Jacobs run for 9 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
-1
98.1%
Josh Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 36Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+7
98.0%
Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the Ark 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
98.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+18
98.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 18 yds to the Ark 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15END OF HALF
11 plays · 76 yds · 1:151% → 2%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
98.7%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+46
98.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 46 yds to the Alab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
98.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Brandon Martin for 13 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
98.3%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
98.3%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Brandon Martin for 1 yd to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+14
98.5%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Brandon Martin for 14 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.5%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'Grady, broken up by Ronnie HarrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.6%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 15 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.5%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-10
98.5%
Kelley, Cole pass incomplete to Stewart, Deon, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding (Williams, David) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 17
OWN 33
+19
98.5%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 19 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.4%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 3 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by Levi WallaceSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
98.7%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Brandon MartinSimilar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
98.7%
Blake Johnson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:5699% → 99%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
98.8%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+8
98.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 8 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
98.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 6 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
98.9%
Damien Harris run for 11 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 6
50
0
99.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Cam Sims, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 6
50
+7
99.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.0%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Kevin Richardson II return for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 5:141% → 1%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.8%
Deon Stewart run for 4 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
98.8%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+17
98.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 17 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
98.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
98.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+9
98.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 9 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
98.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Cheyenne O'Grady) to the Alab 28Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+4
98.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 4 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-1
98.7%
Cole Kelley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+13
98.8%
Cole Kelley run for 13 yds to the Alab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.8%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
98.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for no gain to the Alab 12Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
99.0%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
98.8%
Connor Limpert 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:3599% → 100%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
98.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 17 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
99.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 18 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
99.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 8 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+10
99.1%
Damien Harris run for 10 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.2%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Ark 20Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 20 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -24 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Cole Kelley sacked by Raekwon Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-9
99.9%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 13 Chase Hayden fumbled, recovered by Ark Johnny Gibson Jr.Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 22
OWN 13
-12
99.9%
Cole Kelley sacked by Rashaan Evans for a loss of 12 yards to the Ark 1Similar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 34
OWN 1
+10
99.9%
Blake Johnson punt for 44 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 10 yds to the Ark 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+10
99.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 10 yds to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 14 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Cole Kelley run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-12
99.9%
Cole Kelley sacked by Shaun Dion Hamilton for a loss of 12 yards to the Ark 28 ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Cole Kelley) to the Ark 28Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass intercepted Mack Wilson return for no gain to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23FG
5 plays · 37 yds · 2:05100% → 100%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 33 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
99.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Ark 3Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
99.9%
Andy Pappanastos 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:420% → 0%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+18
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 3 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jared Mayden) to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 6 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-5
99.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Cheyenne O'Grady) to the Ark 48Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+11
100.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Will Gragg for 11 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+10
100.0%
Chase Hayden run for 10 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
99.9%
Kelley, Cole pass incomplete to Jones, Jordan, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Mayden, Jared) 15 yards to the ALABAMA14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 3 yds to the Alab 11 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.9%
David Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 6Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.9%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
99.9%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 3Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jordan Jones for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+16
100.0%
Najee Harris run for 16 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 5 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:20
Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q3 1:25
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 20 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 7:24
Damien Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com