Try the model
UGA

Georgia 45 at Vanderbilt 14

VAN
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:16 · Sam Loy punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense−1.4Pregame prior−35.9Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:08: D'Andre Swift 5 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +2.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:58: Nick Chubb 14 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +5.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:28: Ralph Webb 1 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick) — VAN win probability +4.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:14: Terry Godwin 47 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +5.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:17: Sony Michel 50 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick) — UGA win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:39VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:16VAN 4th & 4 at UGA 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:56UGA 4th & 5 at UGA 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:35VAN 4th & 14 at VAN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:10VAN 4th & 8 at UGA 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:21VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 28, down 21
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:29VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:34UGA 4th & 2 at VAN 10, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:59VAN 4th & 2 at UGA 47, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:54UGA 4th & 1 at VAN 41, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:15VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 38, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:08VAN 4th & 3 at UGA 3, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UGA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:53UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:08UGA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:58UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28VAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:14UGA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:17UGA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:50UGA Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:08VAN Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:0511% → 13%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
11.3%
Ralph Webb run for 11 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
11.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 4 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
11.8%
Khari Blasingame run for no gain to the Vandy 34Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+6
12.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 6 yds to the Vandy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
12.4%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Saige Young) to the Vandy 35Similar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+7
12.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 7 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+5
13.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the Vandy 47Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
13.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
13.2%
Sam Loy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Terry Godwin at the Geo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2TD
8 plays · 83 yds · 2:3787% → 87%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
13.2%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 21Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+13
13.4%
Nick Chubb run for 13 yds to the Geo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
13.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Geo 39Similar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 5
OWN 39
+5
13.5%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
13.7%
D'Andre Swift run for 4 yds to the Geo 48Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+11
13.9%
Nick Chubb run for 11 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
14.0%
Nick Chubb run for 8 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+33
12.7%
Nick Chubb 33 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2513% → 14%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
13.2%
Ralph Webb run for 28 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
13.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
13.8%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Geo 46Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+6
13.9%
GEORGIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Davin Bellamy) to the Geo 40Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-1
14.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 41Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
14.2%
Sam Loy punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Geo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1286% → 86%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
13.8%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 12 yds to the Geo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
13.8%
Nick Chubb run for 5 yds to the Geo 38Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
13.7%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Riley RidleySimilar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
13.8%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Isaac NautaSimilar
Q1 3:56
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+13
14.1%
Cameron Nizialek punt for 59 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 13 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:1314% → 14%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
14.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
14.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Caleb ScottSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+18
14.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 18 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
14.7%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
14.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+1
14.5%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
14.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
14.4%
Sam Loy punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:2086% → 88%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
14.1%
Sony Michel run for 5 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+27
14.2%
Sony Michel run for 27 yds to the Vandy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
14.1%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Andrew Thomas) to the Vandy 18Similar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+12
14.3%
Sony Michel run for 12 yds to the Vandy 6Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+1
14.3%
Nick Chubb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 5Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+3
14.5%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the Vandy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
14.5%
Sony Michel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 3Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
14.6%
Nick Chubb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 5Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
11.8%
D'Andre Swift 5 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 4:4813% → 13%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
12.8%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 29Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
12.8%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+12
12.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 12 yds to the Vandy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
13.1%
Trent Sherfield run for 7 yds to the Vandy 49Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-3
13.3%
Khari Blasingame run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 46Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+7
13.0%
Khari Blasingame run for 7 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
13.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
13.3%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Geo 45Similar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
13.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Kalija LipscombSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
12.8%
Sam Loy punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:0488% → 94%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
12.4%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 23Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
12.1%
Nick Chubb run for 4 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+8
12.3%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Javon Wims for 8 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
12.0%
Jake Fromm sacked by Jay Woods for a loss of 6 yards to the Geo 29Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+2
12.3%
Sony Michel run for 2 yds to the Geo 31Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+23
12.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Terry Godwin for 23 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
11.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Vandy 41Similar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 5
OPP 41
+1
11.5%
Elijah Holyfield run for 1 yd to the Vandy 40Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
11.5%
Jake Fromm pass complete to D'Andre Swift for 3 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+12
11.6%
Nick Chubb run for 12 yds to the Vandy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
11.4%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Solomon Kindley) to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+16
11.5%
Jake Fromm run for 16 yds to the Vandy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
5.7%
Nick Chubb 14 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:198% → 13%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
7.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for no gain to the Vandy 32Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
7.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 15 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
8.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trey Ellis for 14 yds to the Geo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
8.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 38 yds to the Geo 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.3%
Ralph Webb 1 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
10.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Geo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3988% → 94%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
11.6%
Nick Chubb run for 10 yds to the Geo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
11.5%
Nick Chubb run for 3 yds to the Geo 38Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
10.9%
Fromm, Jake pass complete to Herrien, Brian for 12 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY GEORGIA illegal formation 5 yards to the GEORGIA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+20
11.5%
Sony Michel run for 20 yds to the Vandy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
5.6%
Terry Godwin 47 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:307% → 7%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
7.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+5
7.1%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
7.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+20
7.0%
Sam Loy punt for 56 yds , Mecole Hardman returns for 20 yds to the Geo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 13TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:0495% → 97%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
4.7%
GEORGIA Penalty, False Start (Solomon Kindley) to the Geo 31Similar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+16
4.8%
Sony Michel run for 16 yds to the Geo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
4.5%
Sony Michel run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 7
50
+50
2.6%
Sony Michel 50 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:483% → 3%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
3.2%
VANDERBILT Penalty, False Start (Devin Cochran) to the Vandy 20Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
3.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 8 yds to the Vandy 28Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
3.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
2.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
2.9%
Sam Loy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Mecole Hardman at the Geo 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 15FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:4497% → 99%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.6%
Nick Chubb run for 9 yds to the Geo 34Similar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
1.9%
Nick Chubb run for 10 yds to the Geo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
2.0%
D'Andre Swift run for 15 yds to the Vandy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
2.0%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
1.9%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Mecole HardmanSimilar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+8
2.0%
Sony Michel run for 8 yds to the Vandy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
1.8%
D'Andre Swift run for 6 yds to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+7
1.5%
D'Andre Swift run for 7 yds to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
1.5%
Brian Herrien run for 4 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
1.4%
Brian Herrien run for no gain to the Vandy 14Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+4
1.4%
Jake Fromm pass complete to Charlie Woerner for 4 yds to the Vandy 10Similar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
1.3%
Rodrigo Blankenship 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:261% → 2%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
1.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for 20 yds to the Vandy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
1.4%
Kalija Lipscomb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 46Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-3
1.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the Vandy 43Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+10
1.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 10 yds to the Geo 47Similar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 2
OPP 47
-3
1.5%
Khari Blasingame run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 17TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
50
+2
0.5%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
0.5%
Jake Fromm pass incomplete to Trey BlountSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+7
0.4%
Jake Fromm run for 7 yds to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+19
0.5%
Jake Fromm run for 19 yds to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
0.4%
Elijah Holyfield run for 7 yds to the Vandy 15Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+15
0.4%
Elijah Holyfield 15 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.3%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. DuncanSimilar
Q4 12:53
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
0.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Caleb Scott for no gain to the Vandy 35Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
0.2%
Jamauri Wakefield run for 2 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+1
0.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jamauri Wakefield for 1 yd to the Vandy 38Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Sam Loy punt for 35 yds, downed at the Geo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · -11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
0.2%
Jacob Eason sacked by Bryce Lewis for a loss of 11 yards to the Geo 1 Jacob Eason fumbled, forced by Bryce Lewis, recovered by Vandy Nifae Lealao , return for 0 yards , return for 15 yds to the Geo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20TD
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
0.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 2 yards to the Geo 3Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
C.J. Duncan 3 Yd pass from Kyle Shurmur (Tommy Openshaw Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 21END OF GAME
14 plays · 52 yds · 8:58100% → 100%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.3%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the Geo 27Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
0.2%
Brian Herrien run for 3 yds to the Geo 30Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
0.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Jeremiah Holloman for 7 yds to the Geo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
0.2%
Holyfield, Elijah rush for 6 yards to the GEORGIA43, PENALTY GEORGIA illegal formation 5 yards to the GEORGIA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+10
0.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Ahkil Crumpton for 10 yds to the Geo 42Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
0.2%
Jacob Eason pass complete to Ahkil Crumpton for 7 yds to the Geo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
0.1%
Brian Herrien run for 6 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
0.1%
Elijah Holyfield run for 6 yds to the Vandy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
0.1%
Elijah Holyfield run for 11 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-13
0.1%
Brian Herrien run for 2 yds to the Vandy 26 GEORGIA Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 23
OPP 41
+4
0.1%
Elijah Holyfield run for 4 yds to the Vandy 37Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+7
0.1%
Elijah Holyfield run for 7 yds to the Vandy 30 Elijah Holyfield fumbled, forced by Zaire Jones, recovered by Geo Jacob EasonSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+7
0.1%
Brian Herrien run for 7 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:14
Terry Godwin 47 Yd pass from Jake Fromm (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
-5.9
TD · Q2 1:58
Nick Chubb 14 Yd Run (Rodrigo Blankenship Kick)
-5.7
TD · Q2 0:28
Ralph Webb 1 Yd Run (Tommy Openshaw Kick)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com