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ALA

Alabama 27 at Texas A&M 19

TA&M
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:41: Andy Pappanastos 34 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +1.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:16: Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +2.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:01: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 8 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +3.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:39: Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +5.2 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:17: Kellen Mond run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +6.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 10ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:12TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:59TA&M 4th & 5 at ALA 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.6%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:37TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:01ALA 4th & 6 at TA&M 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:58ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:08TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:39ALA 4th & 6 at TA&M 32, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.1%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:14TA&M 4th & 3 at ALA 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:41ALA 4th & 5 at TA&M 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:25TA&M 4th & 2 at ALA 38, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%
    38% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:57ALA 4th & 1 at TA&M 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.2%−1.0
    83% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−4.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:51TA&M 4th & 6 at ALA 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:39TA&M 4th & 9 at ALA 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:39TA&M 4th & 2 at ALA 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−3.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:45ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:18ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 3, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:49TA&M 4th & 26 at TA&M 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:09ALA 4th & 3 at TA&M 26, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:46ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:16ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:01ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:39TA&M Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:17TA&M Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%−2.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:434% → 4%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Keith Ford for no gain to the TexAM 25Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.0%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
4.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 21Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
4.1%
Kellen Mond run for 6 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+47
4.2%
Shane Tripucka punt for 47 yds , Henry Ruggs III returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3496% → 95%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
4.3%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
4.4%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
4.4%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
4.7%
JK Scott punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:375% → 5%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+31
4.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 31 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
4.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
5.0%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 5
OPP 34
0
5.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+52
5.3%
Daniel LaCamera 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
5.0%
Damien Harris run for 75 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:095% → 5%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
5.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 3Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
5.2%
Kellen Mond run for no gain to the TexAM 3Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+3
5.3%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 6Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+12
5.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 56 yds , Henry Ruggs III returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3695% → 94%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
50
+3
5.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the TexAM 47 Jalen Hurts fumbled, forced by Landis Durham, recovered by Alab Bradley BozemanSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
5.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 1 yd to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
5.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
6.0%
JK Scott punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:306% → 7%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
6.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Keith Ford for 7 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-1
6.1%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 26Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+4
6.2%
Kellen Mond run for 4 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
6.5%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
6.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Clyde ChrissSimilar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+10
6.6%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Ausbon, Jhamon, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Wallace, Levi) 10 yards to the TEXASAM43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
7.0%
Kellen Mond run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line Kellen Mond fumbled, forced by Shaun Dion Hamilton, recovered by Alab Rashaan Evans , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:3394% → 93%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
50
+9
6.5%
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-5
6.7%
ALABAMA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Josh Jacobs) to the TexAM 46Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-1
6.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-13
7.1%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Otaro Alaka for a loss of 13 yards to the TEXASAM 40 ALABAMA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jalen Hurts) to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
7.5%
JK Scott punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:507% → 8%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
7.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
7.5%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 18Similar
Q1 0:34
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-4
7.5%
Kellen Mond sacked by Keith Holcombe for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 14Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
7.6%
Shane Tripucka punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Henry Ruggs III at the Alab 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:2192% → 91%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
7.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
7.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 12 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
7.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+9
8.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
8.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
8.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+4
8.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 12:39
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+50
8.7%
JK Scott 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:259% → 10%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
9.0%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
9.1%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the TexAM 34Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+17
9.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 17 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
10.1%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
10.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 6 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
10.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
10.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Henry Ruggs III at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3390% → 91%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
10.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 7 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+5
10.1%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
10.2%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
10.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to DeVonta SmithSimilar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+38
10.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 38 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
9.9%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Tyrel Dodson for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+7
9.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+11
10.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 11 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
9.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 4 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+1
10.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
10.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 5:41
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
9.1%
Andy Pappanastos 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3610% → 11%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
9.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 17 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
10.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 43 Trayveon Williams fumbled, forced by Joshua Frazier, recovered by Alab Raekwon DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:3991% → 94%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
8.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 44Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+16
8.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 16 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
9.0%
Damien Harris run for 27 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 2:517% → 8%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
6.9%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
7.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Keith Ford for 7 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
7.1%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+14
7.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for 14 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
7.7%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-2
7.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 46Similar
Q2 1:03
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+8
7.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 8 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
7.5%
Kellen Mond run for no gain to the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16END OF HALF
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:2594% → 94%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
6.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
6.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 13 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
5.9%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
6.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the TexAM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5993% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
6.7%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+45
6.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 30 yds to the TEXASAM 39 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexAM 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
6.3%
Damien Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+11
6.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 11 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
6.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+6
7.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
6.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the TexAM 8Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
2.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 8 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:104% → 4%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
4.3%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+25
4.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 25 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
4.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+10
4.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 10 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
4.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
4.2%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+3
4.0%
Kellen Mond run for 3 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
4.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0197% → 98%
Q3 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
2.6%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Foster, Robert, PENALTY ALABAMA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the ALABAMA32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+3
2.6%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
2.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Robert FosterSimilar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+1
2.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 1 yd Robert Foster fumbled, forced by Debione Renfro, recovered by TexAM Deshawn Capers-SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20TD
10 plays · 36 yds · 5:114% → 8%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
4.1%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
3.3%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 4
OPP 30
-5
3.2%
Kellen Mond sacked by Raekwon Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 4:39
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+32
2.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Damion Ratley for 32 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.5%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
4.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Keaton Sutherland) to the Alab 5Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
3.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Keith Ford for 3 yds to the Alab 2Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.8%
Keith Ford run for no gain to the Alab 2Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5494% → 94%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
6.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 6 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
5.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-4
5.6%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Zaycoven Henderson and Jarrett Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
6.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
6.4%
JK Scott punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 3:008% → 9%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
7.9%
Kellen Mond run for 20 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
8.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 33Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+3
8.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+15
8.2%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Kirk, Christian, PENALTY ALABAMA illegal use of hands 15 yards to the ALABAMA15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
8.7%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
8.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 5 yds to the Alab 10Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
8.6%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Minkah Fitzpatrick return for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23SF
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2795% → 93%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
5.0%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
4.8%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 8
OWN 3
0
4.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 8
OWN 3
0
7.0%
JK Scott punt blocked by Cullen Gillaspia for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 3:299% → 6%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
8.8%
Kellen Mond sacked by Quinnen Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+15
8.1%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Ratley, Damion, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Wallace, Levi) 15 yards to the TEXASAM40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
9.5%
Kellen Mond run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-14
8.9%
Kellen Mond sacked by LaBryan Ray for a loss of 14 yards to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 31
OWN 19
+5
6.4%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 26
OWN 24
+53
6.3%
Shane Tripucka punt for 53 yds , Henry Ruggs III returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 4:4094% → 98%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
5.8%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 23Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+17
5.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 17 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
5.0%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
5.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+3
4.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
50
+2
4.5%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+15
3.5%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Foster, Robert, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Renfro, Debione) 15 yards to the TEXASAM33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
3.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+4
3.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-1
3.4%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 26Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+44
2.1%
Andy Pappanastos 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 26TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 1:401% → 7%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.8%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
0.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 9 yds to the TexAM 45Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
0.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
0.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 12 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+39
0.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 39 yds to the Alab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.3%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.4%
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
2.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:17
Kellen Mond run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q3 1:39
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q3 11:01
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 8 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
-3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com