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ARK

Arkansas 22 at South Carolina 48

SC
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:31 · Jake Bentley pass incomplete, broken up by Kamren Curl
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense+0.4Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Blowout margin−0.3Pregame prior−4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:15: Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 62 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +6.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:26: Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +5.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:04: Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +10.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:28: Parker White 29 yd FG GOOD — SC win probability +6.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:33: Austin Allen pass intercepted for a TD Skai Moore return for 34 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — SC win probability +12.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00SC 4th & 3 at ARK 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    42.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:04SC 4th & 6 at ARK 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:46SC 4th & 10 at ARK 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:31ARK 4th & 10 at SC 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:31SC 4th & 6 at ARK 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.9%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:26ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:31SC 4th & 13 at SC 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  8. Q1 1:32ARK 4th & 21 at ARK 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:12SC 4th & 10 at ARK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:12ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ARK 4th & 13 at ARK 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:28SC 4th & 5 at ARK 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−7.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:23ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:36SC 4th & 6 at SC 41, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:15SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:26ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:04SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:33SC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:47SC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:36ARK Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:33SC Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:40ARK Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SCDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:5644% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
44.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for 5 yds to the SCaro 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+13
44.3%
Hayden Hurst run for 13 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
44.3%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
44.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 7 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
44.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+5
44.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
44.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 4 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
44.3%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
44.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
45.3%
Parker White 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · -16 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
45.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-1
45.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for a loss of 1 yard Cheyenne O'Grady fumbled, forced by Chris Lammons, recovered by SCaro T.J. BrunsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2746% → 46%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
45.9%
Rico Dowdle run for 1 yd to the Ark 14Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-1
45.9%
Hayden Hurst run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 15Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
45.7%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Shi SmithSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
46.4%
Parker White 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:1554% → 54%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
46.3%
David Williams run for 23 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
45.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 5 yds to the SCaro 47Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+3
45.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 3 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-1
45.8%
David Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SCaro 45Similar
Q1 7:28
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+15
46.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon Stewart, PENALTY SC pass interference (Rashad Fenton) 15 yards to the SC30, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
45.9%
Chase Hayden run for no gain to the SCaro 30Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
46.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete, broken up by D.J. WonnumSimilar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
46.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
46.0%
Connor Limpert 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
47.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 9 yds to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+6
47.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 6 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to K.C. CrosbySimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
47.2%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 6:31
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
47.0%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
46.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
46.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
46.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 8 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
45.6%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 43Similar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
46.3%
Blake Johnson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
47.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 2 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
47.2%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
46.6%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete, broken up by McTelvin AgimSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 8
OWN 24
-5
46.3%
Joseph Charlton punt 55 yards to the AR21, fair catch by Henre' Toliver, PENALTY SC illegal formation 5 yards to the SC19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
46.3%
Joseph Charlton punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
45.6%
T.J. Hammonds run for 12 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
45.0%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the SCaro 47Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-7
45.1%
Austin Allen sacked by Skai Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 16
OWN 46
0
46.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, intentional grounding (Austin Allen) to the Ark 46Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 16
OWN 46
0
46.6%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by Steven MontacSimilar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 16
OWN 46
-5
47.3%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ark 41Similar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 21
OWN 41
0
47.3%
Blake Johnson punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9TD
2 plays · 65 yds · 0:4548% → 55%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
48.2%
Ty'Son Williams run for 3 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+62
54.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 62 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4947% → 55%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete, broken up by Chris LammonsSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.4%
Chase Hayden run for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
52.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 7 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
52.2%
Jordan Jones run for 9 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+9
51.3%
Chase Hayden run for 9 yds to the SCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
51.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 9 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+10
50.4%
T.J. Hammonds run for 10 yds to the SCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
50.4%
Chase Hayden run for no gain to the SCaro 23Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+16
50.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to David Williams for 16 yds to the SCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
50.4%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 5Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
50.4%
Austin Allen run for no gain to the SCaro 5Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
45.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 5:1450% → 50%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.7%
Ty'Son Williams run for 8 yds to the SCaro 33Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
50.9%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
50.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 23 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
52.3%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for no gain to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
52.1%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+9
51.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for 9 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
52.8%
Jake Bentley sacked by Randy Ramsey for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 36 Jake Bentley fumbled, recovered by SCaro Jake Bentley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+5
51.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 5 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
51.5%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards, broken up by Kamren CurlSimilar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+49
50.4%
Parker White 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
46.2%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
47.4%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+3
48.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 3 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
48.7%
Blake Johnson punt for 37 yds, downed at the SCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 1:5451% → 66%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
51.0%
Rico Dowdle run for 4 yds to the SCaro 35Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
51.7%
Rico Dowdle run for 4 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
51.9%
Rico Dowdle run for 7 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
53.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Rico DowdleSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
52.2%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 12 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
54.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan EdwardsSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
53.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 14 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
55.3%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards (Kamren Curl), PENALTY AR pass interference (Kamren Curl) 15 yards to the AR13, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
55.5%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+18
65.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
62.5%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
64.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon Stewart, broken up by D.J. WonnumSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+5
64.9%
Blake Johnson punt for 45 yds , Chris Lammons returns for 5 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:4966% → 73%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
66.4%
Rico Dowdle run for 7 yds to the SCaro 45Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+10
67.3%
Rico Dowdle run for 10 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
67.6%
Rico Dowdle run for 9 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
67.6%
Ty'Son Williams run for no gain to the Ark 36Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+19
66.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Jacob August for 19 yds to the Ark 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
67.8%
Jake Bentley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
67.8%
Rico Dowdle run for 5 yds to the Ark 12Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
66.8%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Hayden HurstSimilar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
73.0%
Parker White 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5528% → 15%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by JaMarcus KingSimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.7%
Jonathan Nance run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+34
85.1%
Austin Allen pass intercepted for a TD Skai Moore return for 34 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FUMBLE TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:1015% → 5%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.1%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
85.3%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
85.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 16 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
84.1%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
84.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+16
84.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 16 yds to the SCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
83.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Brandon Martin for 15 yds to the SCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
82.1%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the SCaro 24Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+73
95.0%
Austin Allen sacked by Dante Sawyer for a loss of 8 yards Austin Allen fumbled, recovered by SCaro T.J. Brunson , return for 0 yards , return for 73 yds, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.8%
Deon Stewart run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
95.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Devwah WhaleySimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
95.9%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
95.9%
Blake Johnson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 19TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 5:3797% → 100%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
97.0%
Rico Dowdle run for 4 yds to the SCaro 44Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+18
97.1%
Ty'Son Williams run for 18 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
97.1%
A.J. Turner run for 8 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+4
97.1%
A.J. Turner run for 4 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
97.1%
A.J. Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+5
97.1%
A.J. Turner run for 5 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+6
97.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to K.C. Crosby for 6 yds to the Ark 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
98.0%
Ty'Son Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+11
98.0%
Bryan Edwards run for 11 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.0%
Ty'Son Williams run for no gain to the Ark 3Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:110% → 1%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.8%
Cole Kelley run for 11 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
99.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, false start (Jeremy Patton) to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+7
99.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 7 yds to the Ark 38Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+11
99.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 11 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+25
99.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 25 yds to the SCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.7%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+1
99.8%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the SCaro 25Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+21
99.8%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 21 yds to the SCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.2%
David Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.5%
Mon Denson run for 7 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.6%
Mon Denson run for 5 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.6%
Mon Denson run for 1 yd to the SCaro 38Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
99.6%
Mon Denson run for 1 yd to the SCaro 39Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+2
99.6%
Mon Denson run for 2 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Joseph Charlton punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT TD
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
99.7%
Chase Hayden run for 4 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+19
99.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 19 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
99.7%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Deon Stewart for 16 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Jordan Jones, broken up by Javon CharlestonSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+45
100.0%
Cole Kelley pass intercepted for a TD Keisean Nixon return for 45 yds for a TD, (Alexander Woznick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
100.0%
Cole Kelley run for 12 yds to the SCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
100.0%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 7 yds to the SCaro 39Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
99.9%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
Chase Hayden run for 3 yds to the SCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 34 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
Mon Denson run for 5 yds to the SCaro 21Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+1
99.9%
Mon Denson run for 1 yd to the SCaro 22Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Mon Denson run for 3 yds to the SCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:33
Austin Allen pass intercepted for a TD Skai Moore return for 34 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) ARKANSAS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
+12.3
TD · Q2 0:04
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 18 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q2 14:15
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 62 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com