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MIZ

Missouri 34 at Kentucky 40

UK
2017 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2017 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG+0.8UK 73.1%Austin MacGinnis 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q1 3:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:41 · Austin MacGinnis 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+16.1Home team on offense+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Garbage-time factor+1.1Score differential+0.4Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:40: Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 58 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +9.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:39: Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +11.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:30: Drew Lock run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +17.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 14:09: Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 64 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +22.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:46: Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 75 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK) — MIZ win probability +21.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 9MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00UK 4th & 10 at UK 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14MIZ 4th & 3 at MIZ 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41UK 4th & 3 at MIZ 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50MIZ 4th & 5 at UK 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    22.6%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:50UK 4th & 2 at MIZ 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−1.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:41UK 4th & 3 at MIZ 17, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:24MIZ 4th & 20 at MIZ 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:56UK 4th & 17 at UK 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−2.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:45MIZ 4th & 5 at UK 10, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:30UK 4th & 7 at UK 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:24MIZ 4th & 3 at UK 8, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%−1.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−13.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:46UK 4th & 1 at UK 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.7%−4.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:40UK 4th & 8 at MIZ 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:15MIZ 4th & 6 at UK 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−2.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−12.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:48UK 4th & 2 at MIZ 2, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%−5.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−27.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:48MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 33, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−6.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:20UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:13MIZ Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:36UK Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:40MIZ Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:39UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:30MIZ Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:09UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:46MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
69.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+1
69.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 1 yd to the Kent 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
69.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
69.8%
Matt Panton punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
69.6%
Damarea Crockett run for 3 yds to the Misso 24Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
69.6%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-7
69.6%
Drew Lock sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the Misso 19 Drew Lock fumbled, recovered by Kent Courtney Love , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:3870% → 71%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
69.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Misso 19Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
69.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for no gain to the Misso 19Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+5
69.7%
MISSOURI Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Misso 14Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
70.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 14 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
70.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 2 yds to the Misso 29Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+5
70.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Misso 34Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
70.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
70.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Lynn Bowden Jr. at the Kent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FG
17 plays · 81 yds · 6:2771% → 73%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
70.7%
Sihiem King run for 4 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
70.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+11
70.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 11 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
70.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Sihiem KingSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+27
70.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 27 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
70.7%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden for 2 yards to the MU40 (Acy, DeMarkus), PENALTY UK personal foul off-setting, PENALTY MU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
71.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Logan CheadleSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+27
71.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 27 yds to the Misso 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
72.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 8 yds to the Misso 7Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+1
72.1%
Sihiem King run for 1 yd to the Misso 6Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+3
71.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Misso 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
72.6%
[SHOT], Benny Snell rush for 3 yards to the MU0, clock 05:42, PENALTY UK illegal formation 5 yards to the MU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
72.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Misso 6Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
72.6%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Markell Utsey for a loss of 6 yards to the Misso 12Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+9
72.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 9 yds to the Misso 3Similar
Q1 3:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
73.1%
Austin MacGinnis 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:5126% → 27%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.6%
Ish Witter run for 11 yds to the Misso 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
73.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 1 yd to the Misso 37Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
73.4%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+7
73.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 7 yds to the Misso 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
73.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+7
72.7%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
72.7%
Ish Witter run for 13 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
72.3%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
72.3%
Ish Witter run for no gain to the Kent 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
72.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Richaud Floyd, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
73.3%
Tucker McCann 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:0974% → 82%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
73.5%
Stephen Johnson run for 6 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+22
73.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 22 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
74.3%
Sihiem King run for 8 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
74.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
74.2%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+3
73.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 3 yds to the Misso 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
74.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Sihiem KingSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+17
74.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 17 yds to the Misso 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
74.7%
Sihiem King run for 4 yds to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
74.7%
Sihiem King run for no gain to the Misso 20Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
74.3%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Epps, PENALTY MU offside defense (Palmore, Walter) 5 yards to the MU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-2
74.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Misso 17Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
81.5%
Austin MacGinnis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:2220% → 27%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
79.7%
Damarea Crockett run for 13 yds to the Misso 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
79.5%
Damarea Crockett run for 4 yds to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
79.1%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 4 yds to the Misso 43Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
78.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 6 yds to the Misso 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
78.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 9
50
0
79.1%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 9
50
+50
72.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 50 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 1:3174% → 82%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
74.3%
Garrett Johnson run for 1 yd to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+7
74.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 7 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+71
82.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 71 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:1219% → 18%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+20
81.0%
Ish Witter run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
50
-11
80.1%
Ish Witter run for 4 yds to the KENTUCKY 46 MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Misso 39Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 21
OWN 39
0
81.3%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 21
OWN 39
-5
81.5%
[SHOT], Lock, Drew pass complete to Witter, Ish for 16 yards to the UK45 (Darius West), PENALTY MU illegal formation 5 yards to the MU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 26
OWN 34
+6
82.2%
Ish Witter run for 6 yds to the Misso 40Similar
Q2 4:24
4TH & 20
OWN 40
+56
82.4%
Corey Fatony punt for 52 yds, downed at the KENTUCKY 8 KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kendall Randolph) to the Kent 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4183% → 84%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
83.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 4Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+22
83.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 22 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
83.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 27Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 27
-10
83.5%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden for 18 yards to the UK45, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UK holding (Kyle Meadows) 10 yards to the UK17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 19
OWN 17
+5
83.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 14
OWN 22
-3
83.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 19Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
84.1%
Matt Panton punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Richaud Floyd at the Misso 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12TD
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
74.7%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 58 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
75.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Kayaune Ross, broken up by Terez HallSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
75.0%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 3:0828% → 34%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.8%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 8 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
71.3%
Damarea Crockett run for 9 yds to the Misso 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
70.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 18 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
69.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
69.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 5 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+9
69.2%
Damarea Crockett run for 9 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
67.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel Hall, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
67.9%
Damarea Crockett run for 11 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
67.5%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
67.5%
Drew Lock run for no gain to the Kent 15Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
69.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:49
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+5
70.9%
McCann, Tucker field goal attempt from 32 MISSED - wide right,, clock 11:49, PENALTY UK roughing the kicker 5 yards to the UK10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
65.7%
Tucker McCann 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
68.5%
Stephen Johnson pass intercepted Cale Garrett return for no gain to the Kent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
62.8%
Damarea Crockett run for no gain to the Kent 34 Damarea Crockett fumbled, forced by Darius West, recovered by Kent Phil HoskinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:2569% → 84%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
68.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 5 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
70.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+3
69.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
70.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 11 yds to the Misso 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
71.3%
[SHOT], PENALTY MU offside defense (Whiteside, Kobi) 5 yards to the MU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+7
71.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 7 yds to the Misso 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
72.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 9 yds to the Misso 22Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
72.1%
Benny Snell Jr. pass incomplete to C.J. Conrad, broken up by Thomas WilsonSimilar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+1
70.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 1 yd to the Misso 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
72.1%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to T. Richardson, PENALTY MU pass interference (Sparks, Adam) 15 yards to the MU6, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
83.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:0219% → 39%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
80.8%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds to the Misso 44Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
79.2%
Ish Witter run for 7 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+48
78.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 48 yds to the Kent 1 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.1%
Drew Lock run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.7%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
68.8%
Stephen Johnson run for 5 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
68.9%
[SHOT], PENALTY UK false start (J. Stallings) 5 yards to the UK28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
67.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
66.4%
Matt Panton punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Misso 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:3236% → 47%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
64.0%
Damarea Crockett run for 6 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
63.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+5
62.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 5 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
61.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 9 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+4
59.6%
Drew Lock run for 4 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
60.1%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
60.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Richaud Floyd for 16 yds to the Kent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
59.6%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Richaud FloydSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
59.6%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+2
61.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 2 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
53.0%
Tucker McCann 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1560% → 84%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
60.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Sihiem King for 6 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
62.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Kayaune RossSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
59.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 5 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
61.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake BoneSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+64
83.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 64 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:2322% → 43%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.0%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon Johnson, broken up by Jordan GriffinSimilar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
78.3%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon Moore, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+75
57.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 75 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 4:0660% → 72%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
60.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
63.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
62.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+6
60.9%
Kash Daniel run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
50
+13
64.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 13 yds to the Misso 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
65.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 38Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+3
64.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Misso 35Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
64.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+53
72.0%
Austin MacGinnis 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:2533% → 34%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
67.2%
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 5 yds to the Misso 30Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+27
65.6%
Ish Witter run for 27 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
61.1%
Ish Witter run for 2 yds to the Kent 41Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
61.4%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to J'Mon MooreSimilar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+9
63.6%
Ish Witter run for 9 yds to the Kent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
60.8%
Ish Witter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+5
61.1%
Ish Witter run for 5 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
62.6%
Drew Lock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
66.2%
TEAM 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Lonnie Johnson N/A return for no gain to the Kent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:2774% → 95%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
74.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 9 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+8
77.0%
Stephen Johnson run for 8 yds to the Misso 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
77.6%
MISSOURI Penalty, offside defense (Markell Utsey) to the Misso 43Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+20
77.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 20 yds to the Misso 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
79.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Misso 19Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+10
79.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 10 yds to the Misso 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
79.0%
Stephen Johnson run for 7 yds to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
79.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Misso 3Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
89.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 1 yd to the Misso 2Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
94.7%
Austin MacGinnis 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26END OF GAME
13 plays · 47 yds · 1:4510% → 13%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.0%
Drew Lock pass complete to Albert Okwuegbunam for 3 yds to the Misso 28Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
89.3%
Drew Lock pass complete to Emanuel Hall for 5 yds to the Misso 33Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
89.2%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+17
89.9%
Ish Witter run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
50
0
86.9%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Emanuel HallSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
50
+12
88.6%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 12 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
86.4%
Drew Lock pass complete to Ish Witter for 10 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
80.9%
Drew Lock pass complete to J'Mon Moore for 1 yd to the Kent 27Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
81.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
86.8%
Drew Lock pass incomplete to Albert OkwuegbunamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:09
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 64 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q4 13:46
Drew Lock pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 75 yds for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q3 5:30
Drew Lock run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tucker McCann KICK)
-17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com