2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadSC aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:34 · Shane Tripucka punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 9:24: Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +13.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:59: Daniel LaCamera 46 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +5.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:27: Keith Ford run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — TA&M win probability +24.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
- SACK · Q4 12:27: Jake Bentley sacked by Kingsley Keke for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 10 — SC win probability +6.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:42: Keith Ford run for 17 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +22.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 9SC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 15:00SC 4th & 6 at SC 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it28.5%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.6%average punt
- Q1 13:55TA&M 4th & 3 at SC 46, tiedClose callPunted · 71.4% before the snapGo for it71.4%52% to convertField goal71.2%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call71.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:50SC 4th & 1 at SC 20, tiedClose callPunted · 28.9% before the snapGo for it28.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:34SC 4th & 9 at TA&M 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.9% before the snapGo for it29.8%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call29.9%60% to makePunt29.2%−0.7average punt
- Q1 8:34TA&M 4th & 1 at SC 47, tiedClose callPunted · 70.5% before the snapGo for it70.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.3%−0.3average punt
- Q1 5:11SC 4th & 7 at SC 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it29.7%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.0%average punt
- Q2 12:45TA&M 4th & 18 at TA&M 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snapGo for it66.2%−1.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.4%average punt
- Q2 9:12SC 4th & 8 at TA&M 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snapGo for it33.8%−0.329% to convertField goalTheir call34.1%87% to makePunt30.6%−3.5average punt
- Q2 9:12TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 19, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 63.0% before the snapGo for it63.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.9%−1.6average punt
- Q2 1:09TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 41, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 60.5% before the snapGo for it61.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.9%−1.1average punt
- Q3 15:00TA&M 4th & 4 at SC 37, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 61.2% before the snapGo for it61.9%48% to convertField goal60.1%−1.940% to makePuntTheir call60.4%−1.5average punt
- Q3 9:24TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 26, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snapGo for it37.1%−1.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.6%average punt
- Q3 7:31SC 4th & 14 at SC 27, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snapGo for it57.4%−3.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.2%average punt
- Q3 0:59TA&M 4th & 3 at SC 28, down 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.5%52% to convertField goalTheir call29.0%−1.560% to makePunt20.2%−10.4average punt
- Q4 15:00SC 4th & 10 at SC 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snapGo for it62.9%−2.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.5%average punt
- Q4 12:27SC 4th & 15 at SC 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snapGo for it33.8%−7.616% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.4%average punt
- Q4 1:59TA&M 4th & 14 at SC 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.1%−0.419% to convertField goal93.4%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call93.5%average punt
- Q4 1:52SC 4th & 5 at SC 48, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.3%−3.0average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 14:45TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.4%97% to makeGo for two72.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:45SC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.1%97% to makeGo for two31.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:24SC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.0%97% to makeGo for two59.8%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:27TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.9%97% to makeGo for two55.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:42TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.9%97% to makeGo for two81.4%−1.545% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
67.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Damion Ratley for 4 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
67.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for no gain to the TexAM 47Similar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
67.7%
Shane Tripucka punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 11:50
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
67.6%
Joseph Charlton punt for 50 yds , Christian Kirk returns for no gain to the TexAM 29 Christian Kirk fumbled, recovered by SCaro Keisean NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4MISSED FG4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2334% → 33%
TA&MDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 8:34
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
67.1%
Shane Tripucka punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4333% → 33%
Q1 5:11
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
67.2%
Joseph Charlton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD10 plays · 55 yds · 4:3368% → 73%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
67.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 1 yd to the SCaro 38Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+19
67.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Kendall Bussey for 19 yds to the SCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0029% → 35%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 12 yds to the SCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
70.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 27 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-9
69.7%
Jake Bentley sacked by Landis Durham for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 19
OPP 45
+45
64.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 45 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
SCDrive 10FG6 plays · 39 yds · 2:3037% → 39%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
50
+12
62.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 12 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
62.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 25 yds to the TexAM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+4
62.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 4 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 9:12
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+3
61.2%
Shane Tripucka punt for 54 yds , Chris Lammons returns for 3 yds to the SCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12FUMBLE9 plays · 64 yds · 0:0040% → 42%
Q2 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+25
59.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 25 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
58.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 21 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+12
58.5%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to OrTre Smith, PENALTY TAMU pass interference (Debione Renfro) 12 yards to the TAMU11, 1ST DOWN SC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
57.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 4 yds to the TexAM 7Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-2
58.2%
Jake Bentley sacked by Landis Durham for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 6 Jake Bentley fumbled, recovered by TexAM Kingsley Keke , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT11 plays · 35 yds · 2:3259% → 59%
Q2 3:41
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+10
58.4%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 10 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
60.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Keith Ford for 4 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
58.8%
Shane Tripucka punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
TA&MDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 43 yds · 0:0057% → 59%
SCDrive 16TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:1746% → 63%
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
51.7%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Bryan Edwards, broken up by Armani WattsSimilar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+29
52.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 29 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
37.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 9:24
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
36.8%
Shane Tripucka punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19FG12 plays · 55 yds · 5:0134% → 43%
Q3 6:00
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+6
36.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 6 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
36.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Camron Buckley for 11 yds to the SCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+6
37.6%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Damion Ratley for 6 yds to the SCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5965% → 63%
TA&MDrive 21TD8 plays · 55 yds · 2:2640% → 69%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
41.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 20 yards to the SC17 (T.J. Brunson), PENALTY TAMU holding (Camron Buckley) 10 yards to the SC47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 17
OPP 44
+26
39.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Damion Ratley for 26 yds to the SCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-1
44.3%
Kellen Mond run for 14 yds to the SCaro 1 TEXAS A&M Penalty, personal foul (Camron Buckley) to the SCaro 16Similar
Q4 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
68.5%
Keith Ford run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0044% → 40%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
56.5%
Jake Bentley sacked by Kingsley Keke for a loss of 9 yards to the SCaro 10Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+12
57.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 12 yds to the SCaro 22Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-8
57.9%
Jake Bentley sacked by Otaro Alaka for a loss of 8 yards to the SCaro 14Similar
Q4 12:27
4TH & 15
OWN 14
+32
60.0%
Joseph Charlton punt for 37 yds, downed at the TEXASAM 49 SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, illegal motion (-5 Yards) to the SCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23TD5 plays · 46 yds · 2:1266% → 91%
Q4 9:54
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+21
64.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 21 yds to the SCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -21 yds · 0:0017% → 14%
TA&MDrive 25PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 3:5592% → 95%
SCDrive 26DOWNS7 plays · 28 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
92.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 10 yds to the SCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
91.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 13 yds to the SCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
91.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 4 yards to the SC47 (Charles Oliver), PENALTY SC illegal formation 5 yards to the SC38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+3
92.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 3 yds to the SCaro 41Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
92.0%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to Shi Smith, broken up by Tyrel DodsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:27
Keith Ford run for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
+24.2
TD · Q4 7:42
Keith Ford run for 17 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
+22.6
TD · Q3 9:24
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 13 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
-13.3