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TROY

Troy 24 at LSU 21

LSU
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:04 · Tyler Sumpter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior+38.7Home team on offense−1.1Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:06: Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +15.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:00: Myles Brennan pass complete to Foster Moreau for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK) — LSU win probability +15.9 pts (now 51%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:14: Josh Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK) — TROY win probability +28.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:59: Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK) — LSU win probability +36.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:58: Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 48 — TROY win probability +19.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:51LSU 4th & 3 at TROY 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:04TROY 4th & 21 at TROY 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:26LSU 4th & 9 at TROY 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49LSU 4th & 17 at LSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:25TROY 4th & 13 at LSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:32LSU 4th & 4 at TROY 18, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−5.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07TROY 4th & 9 at LSU 40, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%
    34% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:06TROY 4th & 1 at LSU 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−10.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:00LSU 4th & 9 at LSU 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:26TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 46, up 17
    Close callPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:53TROY 4th & 10 at TROY 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−3.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:45LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 12, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:58LSU 4th & 3 at TROY 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:54TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:13TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:06TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:00LSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:14TROY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:41LSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:59LSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.5%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.4%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the LSU 30 Nick Brossette fumbled, forced by Cedarius Rookard, recovered by Troy Kris WeatherspoonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:409% → 9%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
91.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+7
91.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 7 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
91.4%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 16 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.7%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:2291% → 90%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
90.8%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
90.8%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
90.8%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+20
90.8%
Derrick Dillon run for 20 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
90.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to David Ducre for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+6
90.8%
Darrel Williams run for 6 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+3
89.6%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
89.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete, broken up by Blace BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
88.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 8 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+6
88.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 6 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
88.8%
Silvers, Brandon pass incomplete to Willis, Damion, PENALTY TROY personal foul (Rowzee, Steven) 15 yards to the TROY32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 25
OWN 32
+4
89.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 21
OWN 36
0
89.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 21
OWN 36
0
89.0%
Jordan Chunn run for no gain to the Troy 36Similar
Q1 9:04
4TH & 21
OWN 36
0
89.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
87.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Tory Carter for 7 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+4
87.7%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
87.7%
Danny Etling run for 19 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
88.0%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+2
88.1%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
88.1%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
88.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Tory Carter for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 5
OPP 38
0
88.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete, broken up by Marcus JonesSimilar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 5
OPP 38
-4
87.9%
LSU Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
87.7%
Josh Growden punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4914% → 16%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
85.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
85.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 5 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+2
85.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
85.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 4 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
85.4%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
83.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
84.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
83.6%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
83.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 1 yd to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
83.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 5 yds to the LSU 33 LSU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Foster Moreau) to the LSU 18Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
83.1%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8MISSED FG
15 plays · 41 yds · 6:3819% → 25%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
81.4%
Jamarius Henderson run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
81.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+12
81.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for 12 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
81.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-5
81.2%
TROY Penalty, false start (J.L. Gaston) to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
79.0%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel Thompson, broken up by Kevin Toliver IISimilar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+17
79.3%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 17 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
78.8%
Josh Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+10
79.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 10 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+4
79.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-6
78.8%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Christian LaCouture for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 16
OPP 22
+3
79.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 13
OPP 19
0
79.2%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
75.1%
Evan Legassey 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:5377% → 74%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
76.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Jamal Pettigrew for 18 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
77.1%
Darrel Williams run for 11 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
78.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 27 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
79.4%
Darrel Williams rush for no gain to the TROY24 (Weatherspoon, Kris;Poole, Baron), PENALTY TROY offside (Barker, Antione) 5 yards to the TROY19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 5
OPP 19
+3
79.4%
Russell Gage run for 3 yds to the Troy 16Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-2
79.4%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
78.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
74.1%
Jack Gonsoulin 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 2:3229% → 42%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
70.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+19
66.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 19 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
65.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
65.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Kevin Toliver IISimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+11
65.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Damion Willis for 11 yds to the LSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
63.7%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Greg Gilmore for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
64.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+5
63.9%
Anderson, Josh rush for 5 yards to the LSU40 (Christian LaCouture), PENALTY LSU offside defense (Devin White) 5 yards to the LSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
62.4%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+20
63.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 20 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+37
57.7%
Evan Legassey 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5436% → 55%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Emanuel ThompsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+74
64.1%
Jordan Chunn run for 74 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
61.8%
Jordan Chunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
61.8%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Deondre Douglas, broken up by Donte JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.7%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the LSU 1Similar
Q3 13:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
47.5%
D.J. Chark run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+2
47.3%
Myles Brennan run for 2 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
47.0%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
46.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
38.7%
Jamarius Henderson run for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
38.5%
Brandon Silvers run for 1 yd to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
38.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Tevaris McCormick for no gain to the Troy 46Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
40.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 29 yds, downed at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 67 yds · 0:0040% → 43%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+48
39.5%
Myles Brennan pass complete to D.J. Chark for 48 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
43.8%
Derrick Dillon run for 7 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
43.8%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
43.8%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
43.8%
Myles Brennan run for no gain to the Troy 9 Myles Brennan fumbled, recovered by LSU Myles BrennanSimilar
Q3 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+2
42.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 2 yds Derrick Dillon fumbled, forced by Blace Brown, recovered by Troy Melvin TyusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
28.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 8Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-4
28.9%
Silvers, Brandon pass complete to Willis, Damion for 13 yards to the TROY21, out-of-bounds (Donnie Alexander), PENALTY TROY pass interference (Willis, Damion) 4 yards to the TROY4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+1
28.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 4 Jordan Chunn fumbled, forced by John Battle, recovered by LSU Devin WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4535% → 51%
Q3 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
34.7%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 7Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
50.6%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Foster Moreau for 7 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 54%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
43.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+1
43.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-2
44.3%
Brandon Silvers sacked by Christian LaCouture for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
45.6%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3242% → 40%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
41.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Russell Gage for 11 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
43.8%
Darrel Williams run for 9 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+4
44.3%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
44.1%
Darrel Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
41.1%
Myles Brennan pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+10
39.9%
Myles Brennan pass intercepted Marcus Jones return for 10 yds to the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 6:3064% → 95%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
35.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 2 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
34.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Sam Letton for 6 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
35.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
34.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
34.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jamarius Henderson for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+20
34.5%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 20 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
32.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
32.9%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for 5 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+11
34.0%
Sidney Davis run for 11 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.3%
Josh Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 0:288% → 25%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
8.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 17 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
9.4%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Stephen SullivanSimilar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
24.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 34 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
16.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 29 yds to the LSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
15.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+7
15.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 7 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
15.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the LSU 8 Jordan Chunn fumbled, forced by Donnie Alexander, recovered by LSU Michael Divinity Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
16 plays · 92 yds · 3:2713% → 44%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
12.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
12.5%
Danny Etling run for 4 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
12.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Foster MoreauSimilar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 6
OWN 12
+12
9.9%
Danny Etling run for 12 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
11.2%
Danny Etling run for 7 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+9
12.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 9 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
13.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 14 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
14.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 3 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-5
14.5%
LSU Penalty, false start (Saahdiq Charles) to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+3
13.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+6
6.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Jacory Washington for 6 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 2:58
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+4
6.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 4 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
8.2%
Danny Etling run for 15 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
44.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0486% → 85%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
13.6%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
11.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jordan Chunn for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 6
50
+3
12.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 3
OPP 47
-6
13.7%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-6 Yards) to the Troy 47Similar
Q4 1:54
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
15.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:0714% → 15%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+27
13.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 27 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Danny Etling pass intercepted Blace Brown return for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
5.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:59
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)
+36
TD · Q4 8:14
Josh Anderson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Legassey KICK)
-28.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:58
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 48
-19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com