Try the model
EMU

Eastern Michigan 20 at Kentucky 24

UK
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Kroger Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameTD-15.3UK 77.8%Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds for a TD,(Paul Fricano PAT MISSED)AWAY 20 - HOME 24 · Q4 2:34
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:34 · Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano PAT MISSED)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior+1.6Home team on offense+7.2Garbage-time factor+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Score differential+0.5Time remaining+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:53: Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +3.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:55: Jaron Johnson pass complete to John Niupalau for 43 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK) — EMU win probability +6.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:56: Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +14.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:34: Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano PAT MISSED) — EMU win probability +15.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:33: Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 45 — UK win probability +8.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 8 of 11EMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:55EMU 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:26UK 4th & 9 at UK 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:45EMU 4th & 14 at EMU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:51UK 4th & 3 at UK 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:35UK 4th & 6 at EMU 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:35EMU 4th & 7 at EMU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:06UK 4th & 19 at UK 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−2.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:55EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:19UK 4th & 3 at UK 10, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:17UK 4th & 16 at EMU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−9.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:17EMU 4th & 15 at EMU 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:18UK 4th & 8 at UK 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00EMU 4th & 26 at EMU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−5.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:43UK 4th & 21 at EMU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−3.6
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:43EMU 4th & 15 at EMU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−3.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:56EMU 4th & 1 at EMU 34, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:22UK 4th & 5 at UK 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:48UK 4th & 12 at UK 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−1.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:38UK 4th & 2 at UK 48, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−2.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:44EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 14:45EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:55UK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:53UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:55EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:56UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:34EMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.4 ptsKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    14.5%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.6%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Jeremiah Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 20 Stephen Johnson fumbled, recovered by EMich Dion Dawson , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the Kent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
83.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 20 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5084% → 83%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
83.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
83.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
83.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
50
+8
83.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 8 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+7
83.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 7 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
83.5%
Sihiem King run for 5 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+10
83.5%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake Bone, PENALTY EMU holding 10 yards to the EMU20, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
82.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Greg Hart for 20 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 9 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
82.2%
Ian Eriksen run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 33Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
82.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 2 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.3%
Ian Eriksen run for 5 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
82.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 7 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
82.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+1
82.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 7
50
0
82.2%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 7
50
0
82.4%
Ivan Oraha punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
80.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 16Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+3
80.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 19Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 5
OWN 19
-4
80.7%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 15Similar
Q1 6:26
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+43
80.5%
Matt Panton punt for 43 yds , Eddie Daugherty returns for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:3720% → 20%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
79.7%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 42Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
79.7%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-5
79.9%
Brogan Roback sacked by Josh Allen and Joshua Paschal for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 37Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
80.5%
Jake Julien punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0680% → 80%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
80.2%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 21Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+5
80.1%
Lynn Bowden Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+5
79.9%
Stephen Johnson run for 5 yds to the Kent 31Similar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 3
OWN 31
-2
79.9%
Matt Panton punt for 40 yds , Eddie Daugherty returns for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0721% → 21%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
79.2%
Breck Turner run for 4 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
79.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Breck Turner for no gain to the EMich 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+1
79.0%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 1 yd to the EMich 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
79.4%
Jake Julien punt for 39 yds, downed at the Kent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 3:1480% → 84%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
79.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 16 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
80.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 12 yds to the KENTUCKY 43 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Juan Giraldo) to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
80.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q2 14:07
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-2
80.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Sihiem King for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+22
80.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 22 yds to the EMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
80.6%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 7Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Kevin McGillSimilar
Q2 10:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
83.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 7 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 0:5318% → 24%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+26
82.5%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 26 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
81.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 14 yds to the Kent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
75.8%
Jaron Johnson pass complete to John Niupalau for 43 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:1378% → 78%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
78.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 7 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-4
79.1%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 28 Stephen Johnson fumbled, recovered by Kent Stephen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+18
77.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 18 yds to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
79.4%
[SHOT], Stephen Johnson pass intercepted by McGILL, Kevin at the EMU14, McGILL, Kevin return to the EMU14, PENALTY EMU pass interference (McGILL, Kevin) 15 yards to the EMU39, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
79.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-1
80.2%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the EMich 35Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
79.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+53
77.7%
Austin MacGinnis 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
75.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
74.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Jaron JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+7
75.0%
Ian Eriksen run for 7 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
74.0%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 46Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
74.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
74.3%
Brogan Roback pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
75.7%
Jake Julien punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
76.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 6 yds to the Kent 26Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
76.5%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
76.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 5 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
76.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Sihiem King for no gain to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-9
76.5%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Kwanii Figueroa for a loss of 9 yards to the Kent 25Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 19
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Kevin McGillSimilar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 19
OWN 25
0
74.9%
Matt Panton punt for 71 yds, downed at the EMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:1028% → 28%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
71.9%
Ian Eriksen run for 4 yds to the EMich 8Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-2
72.9%
Ian Eriksen run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 6Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+9
73.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 9 yds to the EMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
72.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the EMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
70.1%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 16Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
70.4%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Lonnie JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+10
71.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 10 yds to the EMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
69.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 21 yds to the EMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
67.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the EMich 48Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
67.9%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey II, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
69.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine Porter, broken up by Mike EdwardsSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
70.8%
Jake Julien punt for 49 yds, downed at the Kent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
71.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 4Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+6
71.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 10Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
70.1%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 3
OWN 10
0
69.4%
Matt Panton punt for 49 yds , Eddie Daugherty returns for no gain to the EMich 42 Eddie Daugherty fumbled, recovered by Kent Tristan YeomansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 4:4374% → 73%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
74.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the EMich 41Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+6
74.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 6 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+4
73.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the EMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
74.8%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Jeremiah Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 38Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+5
72.6%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 12
OPP 33
+18
72.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 18 yds to the EMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
74.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Lynn Bowden Jr. for 6 yds to the EMich 9Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+2
74.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the EMich 7Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-14
73.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the EMich 6 KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jervontius Stallings) to the EMich 21Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 16
OPP 21
+39
73.4%
Austin MacGinnis 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.8%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 3 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
72.4%
Ian Eriksen run for no gain to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
73.8%
Brogan Roback sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 20Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
75.3%
Jake Julien punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
74.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 10 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
76.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 7
50
-1
76.4%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 49Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
74.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
72.8%
Matt Panton punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:2726% → 25%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
73.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 8 yds to the EMich 15Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+7
73.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 7 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
73.0%
Brogan Roback sacked by Kengera Daniel for a loss of 10 yards to the EMich 12Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 20
OWN 12
0
73.5%
Breck Turner run for no gain to the EMich 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 12
-7
74.0%
Brogan Roback sacked by Denzil Ware for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 6 Brogan Roback fumbled, recovered by EMich Jake Donnellon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 6
0
75.3%
Jake Julien punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21MISSED FG
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:2379% → 73%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-11
79.4%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Maxx Crosby for a loss of 11 yards to the EMich 35 KENTUCKY Penalty, intentional grounding (Stephen Johnson) to the EMich 35Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 21
OPP 35
0
77.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin RichardsonSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 21
OPP 35
0
76.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 21
OPP 35
+53
73.1%
Austin MacGinnis 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0028% → 25%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-11
71.8%
Brogan Roback sacked by Austin MacGinnis for a loss of 11 yards to the EMich 24Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 21
OWN 24
+6
73.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 6 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
74.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine Porter, broken up by Kendall RandolphSimilar
Q4 13:43
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
75.4%
TEAM punt blocked by Joshua Paschal blocked by Joshua PaschalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
89.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Breck Turner for 4 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
86.9%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Dieuly Aristilde for 5 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
86.8%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Antoine PorterSimilar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
87.8%
TEAM punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0089% → 87%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.7%
Sihiem King run for 5 yds to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Sihiem King run for no gain to the Kent 25Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
88.3%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Sihiem King, broken up by Jeremiah HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
87.4%
Matt Panton punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 26INT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
89.4%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 7 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+10
88.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
50
-5
87.8%
[SHOT], PENALTY EMU false start (LEATIOTA, Jimmy) 5 yards to the EMU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+2
89.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to John Niupalau for 2 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+16
89.7%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Jaron Johnson for 16 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
87.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 9 yds to the Kent 28Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
86.6%
Ian Eriksen run for 3 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.6%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Sergio Bailey IISimilar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
87.1%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Dieuly Aristilde, broken up by Derrick BaitySimilar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+3
88.2%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted Kendall Randolph return for 3 yds to the Kent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 0:4092% → 93%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
91.7%
[SHOT], Benny Snell rush for 2 yards to the UK12 (GRANGER, Oddie), PENALTY UK holding (J. Stallings) 5 yards to the UK5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 15
OWN 5
0
91.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 5Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+3
92.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 8Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
93.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 12
OWN 8
+15
92.8%
Matt Panton punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 40 , Isaac Holder returns for 15 yds to the Kent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 28TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:586% → 22%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Ian EriksenSimilar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
94.1%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 15 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
93.2%
Ian Eriksen run for 1 yd to the Kent 24Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-5
93.2%
[SHOT], PENALTY EMU false start (BUKOSKI, Chris) 5 yards to the UK29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+9
93.7%
Brogan Roback run for 9 yds to the Kent 20Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+5
93.8%
[SHOT], ROBACK, Brogan pass incomplete to BAILEY, Sergio, PENALTY UK offside (Joshua Paschal) 5 yards to the UK15, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
93.2%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 13 yds to the Kent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.8%
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5590% → 92%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
90.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
91.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+1
92.3%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 48Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+2
92.0%
Matt Panton punt for 42 yds , Isaac Holder returns for 2 yds to the EMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 30INT
11 plays · 41 yds · 0:4110% → 12%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
90.3%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Ian EriksenSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
90.5%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Jaron JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
91.0%
Brogan Roback pass incomplete to Ian EriksenSimilar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+13
91.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Sergio Bailey II for 13 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
90.3%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Ian Eriksen for 17 yds to the EMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
88.6%
Brogan Roback pass complete to Antoine Porter for 11 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
85.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
88.0%
Brogan Roback pass intercepted, touchback. Mike Edwards return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:34
Ian Eriksen run for 2 yds for a TD, (Paul Fricano PAT MISSED)
-15.3
TD · Q4 11:56
Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
+14.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com