Try the model
MSST

Mississippi State 10 at Auburn 49

AUB
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:22 · Logan Cooke punt for 59 yds, downed at the Aub 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense+9.7Pregame prior+8.5Score differential+3.9Garbage-time factor+1.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:55: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:38: Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:59: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +6.1 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:02: Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +10.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:03: Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 12:00AUB 4th & 1 at MSST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:00MSST 4th & 1 at AUB 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−0.2
    70% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:41MSST 4th & 11 at AUB 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:30MSST 4th & 2 at AUB 41, down 11
    Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:13AUB 4th & 5 at MSST 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:46MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 9, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:18MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.6%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:28AUB 4th & 10 at MSST 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:15MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:53AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 35, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:22MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:37AUB 4th & 9 at MSST 37, up 18
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:01MSST 4th & 15 at AUB 39, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:21MSST 4th & 6 at AUB 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.7%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:23MSST 4th & 1 at AUB 46, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:02MSST 4th & 7 at AUB 12, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:00AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:55AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:38AUB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:59MSST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:02AUB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:03AUB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:42AUB Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:04AUB Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4269% → 69%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
68.5%
Jarrett Stidham run for 10 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+59
68.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 59 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
68.6%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 6Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
68.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 12:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3431% → 31%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
69.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
69.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+11
69.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 11 yds to the Aub 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:3570% → 70%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
69.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
69.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Kyle DavisSimilar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-13
69.6%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 13 yards to the Aub 32, fumbled, forced by Jeffery Simmons, recovered by MisSt Montez Sweat.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 10 yds · 3:3231% → 32%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
68.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+3
68.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 3 yds to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
69.0%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+2
69.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
68.7%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Aub 14Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
68.7%
Keith Mixon run for 2 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-5
69.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Jordan Thomas) to the Aub 17Similar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-5
69.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
69.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+40
68.4%
Jace Christmann 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3068% → 73%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
68.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+3
68.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+49
68.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Darius Slayton for 49 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
69.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 13 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
72.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1929% → 29%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.7%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Couch, Jamal, PENALTY AUBURN personal foul (Williams, Andrew) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
70.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+11
71.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 11 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
70.6%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
70.4%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
70.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for no gain to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
71.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:0572% → 73%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
71.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Chandler Cox for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
72.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+18
71.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 18 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
73.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+6
73.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
73.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
72.6%
Aidan Marshall punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:2227% → 26%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
72.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
72.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 10
OWN 14
-5
73.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Greg Eiland) to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 15
OWN 9
0
73.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 15
OWN 9
+5
74.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 43 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
80.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1521% → 20%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.5%
Kylin Hill run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
79.8%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
79.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+3
80.2%
Logan Cooke run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3681% → 81%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
81.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
81.2%
Devan Barrett run for 7 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-7
81.2%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Montez Sweat for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
81.1%
Daniel Carlson 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0519% → 18%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
80.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
80.3%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
81.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-1
80.6%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
81.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
81.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0982% → 83%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
81.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+4
82.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+4
81.8%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
82.6%
Jarrett Stidham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 24Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+11
82.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
82.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q2 4:53
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+5
82.5%
Aidan Marshall punt for 47 yds , Donald Gray returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:4117% → 24%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+45
83.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 45 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
80.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 11 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
80.7%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+5
81.6%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the Aub 17Similar
Q2 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Aub 1Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
81.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Darryl Williams) to the Aub 5Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.0%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Aub 5Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4279% → 79%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
79.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
79.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1521% → 19%
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
79.5%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+8
78.8%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
78.7%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
79.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-5
80.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+9
80.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
81.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 59 yds, downed at the Aub 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 3:1080% → 93%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+57
80.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 57 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
82.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
82.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+30
82.1%
Eli Stove run for 30 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
82.7%
Kerryon Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 9Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
83.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
82.9%
Stidham, Jarrett pass incomplete to Davis, Kyle (Cleveland, Tolando), PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Cleveland, Tolando) 4 yards to the MISSSTATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q3 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:069% → 9%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.1%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
90.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
91.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Tray Matthews return for no gain to the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4294% → 93%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
93.6%
Devan Barrett run for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
93.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
93.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+3
93.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
93.4%
Aidan Marshall punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:367% → 6%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
92.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+32
92.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 32 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
92.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
92.6%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
92.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
93.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 5 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+10
92.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
92.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod Green, broken up by Carlton DavisSimilar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
92.5%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
93.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 10
OPP 34
-5
93.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 39Similar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
94.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4896% → 96%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
95.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
95.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 43 Kamryn Pettway fumbled, recovered by MisSt Gerri GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:396% → 5%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
94.1%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Jeff Holland for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 17
50
+7
94.9%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+4
94.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
94.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:0297% → 100%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
97.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+1
97.2%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+52
97.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kyle Davis for 52 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Kerryon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24INT TD
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:101% → 0%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.2%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 1 yd to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+37
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted for a TD Javaris Davis return for 37 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25DOWNS
15 plays · 63 yds · 4:280% → 0%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 5
50
+4
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 4 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 3 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 28 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 7
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 2:51100% → 100%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Malik Miller run for 2 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+9
99.9%
Malik Miller run for 9 yds to the Aub 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Malik Miller run for 6 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Igbinoghene for 3 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+67
100.0%
Malik Willis run for 67 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27END OF GAME
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:550% → 0%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
100.0%
Nick Gibson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 15 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
100.0%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+8
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 10 yds to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Jamal CouchSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson sacked by Big Kat Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 34 Keytaon Thompson fumbled, forced by Big Kat Bryant, recovered by MisSt Greg Eiland , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:02
Kerryon Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 13:38
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q2 0:59
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 5 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com