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NMSU

New Mexico State 24 at Arkansas 42

ARK
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Peyton Theisler punt for 45 yds , Henre' Toliver returns for 2 yds to the Ark 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Pregame prior+30.7Home team on offense+5.8Score differential+1.7Garbage-time factor+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:38: Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 31 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +5.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:51: Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:34: Chase Hayden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +6.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:21: Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 9 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK) — NMSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:30: Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +5.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:01NMSU 4th & 25 at NMSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  3. Q3 11:21ARK 4th & 4 at NMSU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−3.1
    average punt
  4. Q3 2:20ARK 4th & 1 at NMSU 13, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q4 12:47ARK 4th & 8 at NMSU 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  6. Q4 12:47NMSU 4th & 18 at NMSU 8, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  7. Q4 5:35ARK 4th & 4 at NMSU 23, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:48NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:01ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:38ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:51NMSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:34ARK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:21NMSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:30ARK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:54ARK Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:47NMSU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5988% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 4 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
88.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 7 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
88.2%
Chase Hayden run for 8 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+2
88.2%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.2%
T.J. Hammonds run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
88.2%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+16
88.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 16 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
88.2%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+38
88.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 38 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds OJ Clark fumbled, forced by Santos Ramirez, recovered by NMxStSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
87.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
87.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 15 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
87.6%
Tyler Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 14
OWN 34
0
87.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 14
OWN 34
-11
87.8%
Tyler Rogers sacked by McTelvin Agim for a loss of 11 yards to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 25
OWN 23
0
87.9%
Peyton Theisler punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3INT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
87.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 17 yds to the NMxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
87.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+3
87.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+6
87.7%
Cole Kelley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 34 Cole Kelley fumbled, forced by Lui Fa'amasino, recovered by Ark David Williams for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
87.8%
Austin Allen pass intercepted DeMarcus Owens return for no gain to the NMxSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4INT
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:2313% → 14%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
87.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMxSt 17Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+5
87.1%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
87.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 9 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+8
86.9%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+25
87.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 25 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
86.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 21 yds to the Ark 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
86.0%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted, touchback. Kevin Richardson II return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3487% → 90%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.1%
Chase Hayden run for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
87.1%
Chase Hayden run for 6 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
87.0%
Chase Hayden run for 3 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+47
87.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 32 yds to the ARKANSAS 36 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Terrill Hanks) to the NMxSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
87.6%
Jordan Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 16Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
87.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
87.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
89.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 13
+5
89.2%
Tyler Rogers run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
89.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to OJ Clark, broken up by De'Jon HarrisSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 18
+2
89.3%
Peyton Theisler punt for 45 yds , Henre' Toliver returns for 2 yds to the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:5990% → 95%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
90.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Hayden Johnson for 9 yds to the Ark 48Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 1
OWN 48
-10
90.3%
Chase Hayden rush for 13 yards to the NMSU39, out-of-bounds (Ron Laforce), PENALTY AR holding (Frank Ragnow) 10 yards to the AR38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+21
90.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 21 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
90.3%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
90.3%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
90.2%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
90.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Chase Hayden for 15 yards to the NMSU15 (J. Fergurson;Jaden Wright), PENALTY AR holding (Paul Ramirez) 10 yards to the NMSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+5
90.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+4
90.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 4 yds Austin Cantrell fumbled, forced by Shamad Lomax, recovered by ArkSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+31
95.2%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 31 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:476% → 12%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
94.0%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+19
94.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 19 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
93.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 18 yds to the Ark 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
93.5%
Larry Rose III run for 4 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
93.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+20
93.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 20 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.5%
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 4:1790% → 97%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
90.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
50
+4
90.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+9
90.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 9 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
90.6%
David Williams run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
90.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 10 yds to the NMxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
90.7%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
90.7%
Chase Hayden run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
90.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Roy Lopez) to the NMxSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.8%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 1:345% → 7%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
95.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 24 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
95.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott, broken up by Santos RamirezSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+30
95.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 30 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
94.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 9 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+5
94.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 5 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Conner CramerSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
93.0%
Dylan Brown 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:398% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.5%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
92.7%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Johnathan Boone, broken up by Henre' ToliverSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+17
92.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Conner Cramer for 17 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
92.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+15
92.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel Scott (McTelvin Agim), QB hurry by Dre Greenlaw, PENALTY AR roughing passer (Dre Greenlaw) 15 yards to the AR43, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
91.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Johnathan Boone for 10 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
91.2%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the Ark 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
91.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 2 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+20
91.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jason Huntley for 20 yds to the Ark 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
91.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie, broken up by Santos RamirezSimilar
Q3 11:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
86.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to OJ Clark for 9 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12TD
20 plays · 63 yds · 8:5189% → 97%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
88.6%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+15
88.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for 15 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
89.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 8 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
89.1%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
89.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
89.1%
Austin Allen run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+1
88.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+10
88.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 10 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
89.1%
David Williams run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 9Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
89.0%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 7Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
88.6%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
89.0%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
89.0%
David Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
91.0%
Cole Kelley pass incomplete to Deon Stewart, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Jaden Wright) 1 yards to the NMSU2, 1ST DOWN AR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
91.3%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (1 Yards) to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q3 3:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
91.3%
David Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 3Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.3%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2697% → 100%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.0%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
96.9%
Chase Hayden run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
96.9%
Cole Kelley run for no gain to the NMxSt 13Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+7
96.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 7 yds to the NMxSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
97.0%
Chase Hayden run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 1Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:071% → 4%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
99.3%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+20
99.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 20 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
99.2%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 24 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.2%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+36
96.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jaleel Scott for 36 yds for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
97.8%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 36Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
97.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+18
97.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 18 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
97.9%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+1
97.9%
Chase Hayden run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
97.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jonathan NanceSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
97.5%
Blake Johnson punt for 29 yds, downed at the NMxSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
96.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Jaleel ScottSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-8
96.8%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Dwayne Eugene Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the NMxSt 8 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 18
OWN 8
0
97.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Conner Cramer, broken up by Kevin Richardson IISimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 18
OWN 8
+33
97.0%
Peyton Theisler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the NMxSt 46 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0298% → 99%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
98.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
98.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
98.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+3
98.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
99.2%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the NMxSt 23Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 4
OPP 23
0
99.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Austin CantrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
98.1%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Larry Rose III, broken up by McTelvin AgimSimilar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+2
98.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 2 yds to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q4 4:48
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Peyton Theisler punt for 38 yds, downed at the Ark 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20END OF GAME
5 plays · 52 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+9
99.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.4%
David Williams run for no gain to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+33
99.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 33 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:34
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q3 2:30
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q2 5:51
Tyler Rogers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dylan Brown KICK)
-5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com