Try the model
MISS

Ole Miss 3 at Alabama 66

ALA
2017 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2017 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:04: Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:13: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Hale Hentges for 3 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q1 2:42: Gary Wunderlich 26 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +0.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 12:53: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 18 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 3:42: Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:54MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:07ALA 4th & 6 at MISS 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:18MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:26MISS 4th & 6 at ALA 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:42MISS 4th & 4 at ALA 9, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:40ALA 4th & 1 at MISS 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:51MISS 4th & 18 at MISS 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:49ALA 4th & 19 at MISS 23, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:13MISS 4th & 18 at MISS 15, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:46MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 31, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:14ALA 4th & 11 at ALA 45, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:37ALA 4th & 8 at MISS 30, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:06MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 10, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:59MISS 4th & 5 at ALA 31, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:40MISS 4th & 11 at ALA 31, down 49
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:36ALA 4th & 2 at MISS 8, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:00MISS 4th & 11 at ALA 41, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:00MISS 4th & 14 at MISS 21, down 63
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:30ALA 4th & 1 at MISS 49, up 63
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:04ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:20ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:13ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:53ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:42ALA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:07ALA Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:05ALA Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:36ALA Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:51ALA Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:563% → 3%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
97.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Miss 13Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+5
97.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dawson Knox for 5 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q1 14:06
3RD & 4
OWN 18
0
97.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+14
97.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 42 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 14 yds to the Miss 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4397% → 97%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.4%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
97.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Robert FosterSimilar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
97.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
97.3%
JK Scott punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Myles Hartsfield at the Miss 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:373% → 3%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
97.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Will Gleeson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:0697% → 97%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
97.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 12 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
97.2%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+29
97.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 29 yds to the Miss 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Hale Hentges, broken up by Myles HartsfieldSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5INT TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:403% → 3%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
97.0%
Shea Patterson run for 6 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
97.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+35
97.2%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted, Levi Wallace return for 35 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 1:443% → 3%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
97.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 21 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
97.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
50
+5
97.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
97.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-1
97.1%
Shea Patterson sacked by Isaiah Buggs and Da'Ron Payne for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
97.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 2:0297% → 98%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
97.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+17
97.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 17 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+60
97.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 60 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Miss 3Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Hale Hentges for 3 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:223% → 3%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
97.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
50
+35
97.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 35 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
97.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 6 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-5
97.3%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Jefferson, Van (Wallace, Levi), PENALTY OLEMISS illegal motion (Jefferson, Van) 5 yards to the ALABAMA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-5
97.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+10
97.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 10 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
97.1%
Gary Wunderlich 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3397% → 98%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.2%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
97.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
97.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
97.3%
Damien Harris run for no gain to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+26
97.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 26 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
97.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+2
97.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+5
97.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 5 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+4
97.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the Miss 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 18 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:492% → 3%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.6%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
97.5%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Lodge, DaMarkus, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Wallace, Levi) 10 yards to the OLEMISS42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
97.5%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete to Lodge, DaMarkus, PENALTY ALABAMA roughing passer (Evans, Rashaan) 15 yards to the ALABAMA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.3%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
96.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 6
OPP 39
-12
95.2%
Shea Patterson sacked by Minkah Fitzpatrick for a loss of 12 yards to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 10:51
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
96.6%
Will Gleeson punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:5698% → 98%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
97.6%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+5
97.6%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+14
97.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 14 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
97.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 25 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
98.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 18 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
98.2%
Scarbrough, Bo rush for 12 yards to the OLEMISS2, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Smith Jr., Irv) 10 yards to the OLEMISS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+1
98.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 19
OPP 23
0
98.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 19
OPP 23
0
98.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 19
OPP 23
+40
98.0%
Andy Pappanastos 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:323% → 3%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
96.9%
Wilkins, Jordan rush for 3 yards to the OLEMISS26, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Knox, Dawson) 10 yards to the OLEMISS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 20
OWN 13
-2
97.1%
Shea Patterson sacked by Raekwon Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 11Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 22
OWN 11
+1
97.1%
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd to the Miss 12 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by Miss Dawson KnoxSimilar
Q2 5:02
3RD & 21
OWN 12
+3
97.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 3 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 18
OWN 15
+23
97.1%
Mac Brown punt for 44 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 23 yds to the Miss 36 Trevon Diggs fumbled, recovered by Alab Najee HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:1899% → 99%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
98.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 26 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:441% → 0%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Miss 27Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 10 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Eric Swinney for 3 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. Metcalf, broken up by Anthony AverettSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-9
99.6%
Shea Patterson sacked by Ronnie Harrison for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 16
OWN 31
+5
99.6%
Mac Brown punt for 38 yds , Henry Ruggs III returns for 5 yds to the Alab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 6
50
0
99.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 6
50
-5
99.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Bradley Bozeman) to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
99.5%
JK Scott punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.6%
Eric Swinney run for 4 yds to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+46
99.5%
Damien Harris run for 46 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
99.5%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Ross Pierschbacher) to the Miss 37Similar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+3
99.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+4
99.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
99.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Robert FosterSimilar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
99.7%
JK Scott 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
99.7%
Shea Patterson sacked by Da'Shawn Hand for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 16
OWN 10
0
99.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 16
OWN 10
0
99.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Jordan WilkinsSimilar
Q3 11:06
4TH & 16
OWN 10
+16
99.7%
Mac Brown punt for 35 yds , Henry Ruggs III returns for 16 yds to the Miss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.7%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Robert FosterSimilar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+6
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Miss 10Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+6
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Najee Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
99.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Dawson Knox for 23 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
99.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 13 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
99.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+4
99.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 4 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 5
OPP 31
0
99.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+45
99.8%
Josh Jacobs run for 45 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 22 yds to the Miss 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22INT
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+44
99.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 44 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
99.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 11
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+31
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Levi Wallace return for 31 yds to the Miss 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:54100% → 100%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+28
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 13 yds to the Miss 31 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (DeMarquis Gates) to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
99.9%
Jacobs, Josh rush for 3 yards to the OLEMISS13, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Wills Jr., Jedrick) 10 yards to the OLEMISS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 20
OPP 26
+6
99.9%
Josh Jacobs run for 6 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+12
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 8 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 2 yds to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+37
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 37 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 45 D'Vaughn Pennamon fumbled, recovered by Miss D'Vaughn PennamonSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 15
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Eric SwinneySimilar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 15
OPP 45
+4
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 4 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Henry Ruggs III at the Alab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 8:09100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-2
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 7Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 12
OWN 7
+8
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 8 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+21
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Derek Kief for 21 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+16
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 16 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 7 yds to the Miss 31Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+11
99.9%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 11 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Ronnie Clark run for 3 yds to the Miss 17Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+8
99.9%
Ronnie Clark run for 8 yds to the Miss 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Eric Swinney run for 1 yd to the Miss 26Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
100.0%
Eric Swinney run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-2
100.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Eric Swinney for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
100.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Henry Ruggs III at the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 2 yds · 4:35100% → 100%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
100.0%
Brian Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 2
50
+1
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 1 yd to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 1 yd to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 12
50
-3
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 15
OWN 47
-3
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:53
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Josh Jacobs for 18 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 3:42
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q1 5:13
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Hale Hentges for 3 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com