Try the model
TA&M

Texas A&M 50 at Arkansas 43

ARK
2017 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2017 · AT&T Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:15 · Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 8 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 100Home team on offense+2.3Pregame prior+3.2Garbage-time factor+0.7Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 8:46: Keith Ford run for 44 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TA&M win probability +32.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:21: Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 44 yds for a TD, (Austin Allen pass to Jeremy Patton for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +41.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:10: Connor Limpert kickoff for 65 yds , Christian Kirk return for 100 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +40.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:39: David Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK) — ARK win probability +49.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:04: Daniel LaCamera 27 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +36.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:31TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:50TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:15ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:03TA&M 4th & 10 at ARK 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:11ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:05ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:25ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:15TA&M 4th & 4 at ARK 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:36ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−3.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:04TA&M 4th & 15 at TA&M 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−4.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:40TA&M 4th & 5 at ARK 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    22.1%−12.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:33ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 18, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−6.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:53TA&M 4th & 3 at ARK 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−8.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:04ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:02TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:21ARK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:57TA&M Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:48TA&M Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:53ARK Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:46TA&M Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    66.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:21ARK Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:39ARK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:1142% → 42%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
57.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 13 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
57.7%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 4 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-1
57.6%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 35Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+6
57.8%
Kellen Mond run for 6 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+24
57.7%
Shane Tripucka punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the ARKANSAS 20 TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Travon Fuller) to the Ark 35, Travon Fuller ejected for targetingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:1858% → 61%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
57.9%
David Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+22
58.2%
Chase Hayden run for 22 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
58.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
58.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 14 yds to the TexAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
58.5%
David Williams run for 21 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
58.8%
Williams, David rush for no gain to the TEXASAM1, PENALTY TEXASAM substitution infraction 0 yards to the TEXASAM1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.7%
Kendrick Jackson run for no gain to the TexAM 1Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-5
59.1%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Hjalte Froholdt) to the TexAM 6Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
60.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 0:5040% → 42%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
60.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
60.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+81
58.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 81 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:2558% → 57%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
57.8%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-10
57.4%
Austin Allen sacked by Zaycoven Henderson for a loss of 10 yards to the Ark 17 ARKANSAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Austin Allen) to the Ark 17Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
57.2%
Blake Johnson punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0943% → 42%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
57.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 9 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+4
57.1%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
57.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
57.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Aaron HansfordSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-5
57.4%
Kellen Mond sacked by Austin Capps for a loss of 5 yards to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
58.3%
Shane Tripucka punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the Ark 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 5:0058% → 65%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
57.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 5 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
58.0%
Devwah Whaley run for 4 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+13
57.6%
Cole Kelley run for 13 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.7%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
58.3%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to David WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+15
57.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 15 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+30
59.5%
Jordan Jones run for 30 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
59.9%
David Williams run for 8 yds to the TexAM 7Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+2
60.0%
Cole Kelley run for 2 yds to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
60.2%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.9%
Cole Kelley pass complete to David Williams for 2 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5637% → 36%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.1%
Kellen Mond pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.2%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Aaron HansfordSimilar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
63.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Trayveon Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 23Similar
Q2 13:50
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
64.5%
Shane Tripucka punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3065% → 63%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
64.7%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
65.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Hayden JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-4
64.3%
Austin Allen sacked by Landis Durham for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
63.4%
Blake Johnson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9INT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:2336% → 35%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
63.9%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Dan Moore Jr.) to the TexAM 12Similar
Q2 12:08
1ST & 15
OWN 12
-1
64.1%
Keith Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 11Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 16
OWN 11
-5
64.4%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Erik McCoy) to the TexAM 6Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 21
OWN 6
+4
64.6%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 17
OWN 10
+3
65.3%
Kellen Mond pass intercepted Henre' Toliver return for 3 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:2367% → 74%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+24
66.8%
Chase Hayden run for 18 yds to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Face Mask (6 yards) (6 Yards) to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
74.3%
Chase Hayden 6 Yd Run (Connor Limpert Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11FG
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:5929% → 31%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+79
71.5%
Kellen Mond run for 79 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
69.9%
Keith Ford run for no gain to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
70.1%
Kellen Mond run for no gain to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
72.0%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon Ausbon TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Keaton Sutherland) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
69.2%
Daniel LaCamera 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 3:5270% → 71%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.8%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Paul Ramirez) to the Ark 20Similar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
69.8%
Whaley, Devwah rush for 3 yards to the ARKANSAS23, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding (Ramirez, Paul) 10 yards to the ARKANSAS10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+11
70.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 11 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
70.8%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 15 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.8%
Chase Hayden run for 4 yds to the Ark 40Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-6
72.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Jarrett Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-5
71.4%
Austin Allen sacked by Tyrel Dodson for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 17
OWN 29
0
70.7%
Blake Johnson punt for 53 yds, downed at the TexAM 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:0527% → 43%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+50
72.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Damion Ratley for 50 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
70.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
70.1%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 5 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+1
71.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
70.9%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 18Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+18
57.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 18 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3164% → 63%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
64.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jordan Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 38Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+6
63.7%
David Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
64.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jared CorneliusSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
62.6%
Blake Johnson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
62.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 7 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:1164% → 61%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
63.5%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 8 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+7
64.2%
David Williams run for 7 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
64.0%
David Williams run for 3 yds to the Ark 34 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeremy Patton) to the Ark 24Similar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 17
OWN 24
+3
63.6%
Austin Allen run for 3 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
63.2%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Deon StewartSimilar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
61.9%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
61.2%
Blake Johnson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:2837% → 55%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
62.8%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 14 yds to the TexAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
60.6%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 44 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Personal Foul (T.J. Smith) to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
59.4%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
59.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+2
60.9%
Kellen Mond run for 2 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+8
66.5%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Jhamon Ausbon for 8 yds to the Ark 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
63.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 26Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+3
63.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Roshauud Paul for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
45.2%
Keith Ford run for 23 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:0351% → 48%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.0%
Chase Hayden run for no gain to the Ark 25Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.6%
Chase Hayden run for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
52.0%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the Ark 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
52.0%
Austin Allen sacked by Landis Durham for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+2
50.2%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 35 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Johnny Gibson Jr.) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
48.8%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Cheyenne O'GradySimilar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
48.4%
Blake Johnson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2553% → 51%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
47.4%
Kellen Mond run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+2
46.6%
Kendall Bussey run for 2 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
47.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
49.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (Priest Willis) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
49.2%
Shane Tripucka punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Henre' Toliver at the Ark 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0350% → 76%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
50.1%
Jordan Jones run for 20 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
53.7%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+21
54.3%
Devwah Whaley run for 21 yds to the TexAM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
57.2%
Cole Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+26
57.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to David Williams for 26 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.6%
David Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:0030% → 40%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.6%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.9%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 11 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
68.5%
Keith Ford run for 6 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
66.4%
Keith Ford run for 6 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
66.4%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+12
65.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 12 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
65.8%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
64.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+6
66.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 6 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
64.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 3 yds to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
64.0%
Trayveon Williams run for 2 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
66.3%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Aaron HansfordSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
60.5%
Daniel LaCamera 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5765% → 62%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.9%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
65.2%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-11
63.9%
Austin Allen sacked by Otaro Alaka for a loss of 11 yards to the Ark 18Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+35
61.5%
Blake Johnson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the ARKANSAS 42 ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexAM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23TD
3 plays · 53 yds · 0:3943% → 74%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.1%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Clyde ChrissSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
58.0%
Kellen Mond run for 9 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+44
25.6%
Keith Ford run for 44 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:0238% → 79%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
37.9%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
38.5%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jordan JonesSimilar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+15
33.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 15 yds to the Ark 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
35.4%
T.J. Hammonds run for 8 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+9
37.5%
Chase Hayden run for 9 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
37.1%
Chase Hayden run for no gain to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+44
78.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 44 yds for a TD, (Austin Allen pass to Jeremy Patton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 26TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0633% → 86%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
33.1%
Austin Allen pass complete to Austin Cantrell for 31 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
39.3%
Allen, Austin pass complete to Williams, David for 19 yards to the TEXASAM25, PENALTY ARKANSAS illegal motion 5 yards to the TEXASAM49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
36.1%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+45
35.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 45 yds to the TexAM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.5%
David Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27DOWNS
15 plays · 40 yds · 3:1937% → 62%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
63.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Damion RatleySimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
64.9%
Kellen Mond run for 4 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+3
66.7%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+7
71.2%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Damion Ratley for 7 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
65.8%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+10
66.4%
Kellen Mond run for 10 yds to the Ark 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
66.5%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+6
71.3%
Kellen Mond run for 6 yds to the Ark 15Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+5
73.0%
Keith Ford run for 5 yds to the Ark 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
70.9%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the Ark 9Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
38.1%
Daniel LaCamera 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 29TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Kellen Mond pass incomplete to Jhamon AusbonSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
41.1%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 24Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+14
43.7%
Mond, Kellen pass incomplete to Kirk, Christian, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference (Curl, Kamren) 14 yards to the ARKANSAS10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
22.0%
Kellen Mond pass complete to Christian Kirk for 10 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 30Uncategorized
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
28.1%
David Williams run for 6 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+2
28.1%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
25.8%
Cole Kelley run for 3 yds to the TexAM 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
28.1%
Austin Allen pass incomplete to Jeremy PattonSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
28.1%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
25.6%
Austin Allen pass intercepted, touchback. Armani Watts return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:39
David Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Limpert KICK)
+49.5
TD · Q4 5:21
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 44 yds for a TD, (Austin Allen pass to Jeremy Patton for Two-Point Conversion)
+41.4
TD · Q4 5:10
Connor Limpert kickoff for 65 yds , Christian Kirk return for 100 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
-40.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com