2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreUK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:48 · Matt Panton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:37: Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +7.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:25: Austin MacGinnis 27 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +7.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:59: Austin MacGinnis 44 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +6.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:26: Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK) — SC win probability +16.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 2:15: Timeout SOUTH CAROLINA, clock 02:15 — UK win probability +8.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 3 of 8UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
- Q1 12:44SC 4th & 5 at UK 34, up 6Close callKicked a field goal · 67.4% before the snapGo for it67.4%42% to convertField goalTheir call67.4%−<0.147% to makePunt67.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 11:09UK 4th & 4 at UK 31, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snapGo for it32.5%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.6%average punt
- Q1 8:27SC 4th & 3 at SC 22, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snapGo for it67.6%−0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.8%average punt
- Q2 15:00SC 4th & 1 at SC 27, down 1Close callPunted · 63.3% before the snapGo for it63.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 3:00SC 4th & 8 at UK 36, down 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 48.2% before the snapGo for it47.8%34% to convertField goal47.6%−0.242% to makePuntTheir call46.5%−1.3average punt
- Q2 0:48UK 4th & 1 at UK 28, up 8Close callPunted · 54.0% before the snapGo for it53.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 15:00UK 4th & 20 at UK 27, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snapGo for it52.9%−3.09% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.9%average punt
- Q3 12:53SC 4th & 1 at UK 49, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt42.3%−2.7average punt
- Q3 5:25UK 4th & 8 at SC 9, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.2% before the snapGo for it63.7%−1.127% to convertField goalTheir call64.8%89% to makePunt55.8%−9.0average punt
- Q4 15:00SC 4th & 1 at UK 1, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.8%59% to convertField goal24.3%−3.594% to makePunt15.2%−12.7average punt
- Q4 14:26UK 4th & 10 at UK 1, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snapGo for it68.9%−5.424% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.3%average punt
- Q4 12:22SC 4th & 1 at UK 24, down 11Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snapGo for it23.5%71% to convertField goalTheir call21.0%−2.468% to makePunt15.3%−8.2average punt
- Q4 8:59UK 4th & 1 at SC 26, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snapGo for it84.9%71% to convertField goalTheir call82.2%−2.764% to makePunt75.5%−9.4average punt
- Q4 6:26SC 4th & 6 at UK 9, down 14Numbers favored field goal by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 8.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.2%−2.133% to convertField goal9.2%89% to makePunt4.1%−5.1average punt
- Q4 2:07UK 4th & 3 at SC 3, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snapGo for it87.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call86.9%−1.193% to makePunt80.7%−7.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 14:47SC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call67.1%97% to makeGo for two67.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:05UK Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.1%97% to makeGo for two35.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:37UK Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.3%97% to makeGo for two46.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:26SC Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.5%97% to makeGo for two15.4%−1.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSCDrive 1TD2 plays · 68 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
67.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 68 yds for a TD, (Alexander Woznick PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2INT3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
SCDrive 3MISSED FG5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2868% → 68%
Q1 14:12
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+7
67.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Rico Dowdle for 7 yds to the Kent 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4FUMBLE4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
SCDrive 5INT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
UKDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 11:09
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
67.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 8 yds to the Kent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3332% → 37%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Blake Bone for 9 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
68.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 6 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+18
68.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Sihiem King for 18 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+14
67.7%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 14 yds to the SCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
67.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 9 yds to the SCaro 11Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
68.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Greg Hart for 3 yds to the SCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0565% → 64%
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
64.4%
Joseph Charlton punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10TD13 plays · 67 yds · 5:3237% → 49%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
63.5%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 6 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
62.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Kayaune Ross, broken up by JaMarcus KingSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+8
62.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 8 yds to the SCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+20
62.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 20 yds to the SCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
60.0%
Benny Snell rush for 1 yard to the SC0, clock 09:31, PENALTY UK false start (Landon Young) 4 yards to the SC5, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 11PUNT14 plays · 49 yds · 5:3752% → 48%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
52.1%
Jake Bentley pass incomplete to A.J. Turner, broken up by Matt ElamSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+19
52.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 19 yds to the SCaro 37Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
53.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 22 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
55.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to A.J. Turner for 6 yds to the Kent 32Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-3
54.9%
Jake Bentley sacked by Joshua Paschal and Denzil Ware for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0453% → 55%
Q2 0:48
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
45.3%
Matt Panton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Lammons at the SCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 13MISSED FG7 plays · 28 yds · 0:4144% → 47%
UKDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 2 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
42.4%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 6 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+1
41.9%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 39 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
45.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, intentional grounding (Stephen Johnson) to the Kent 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 27
+2
45.7%
Matt Panton punt for 43 yds , Chris Lammons returns for 2 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-12
42.2%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Bryson Allen-Williams for a loss of 12 yards to the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
UKDrive 16FG14 plays · 42 yds · 5:2962% → 69%
Q3 10:54
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+4
38.2%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 4 yds to the SCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+17
38.3%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 17 yds to the SCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
37.9%
SOUTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 3
OPP 4
-5
37.2%
Benny Snell rush for no gain to the SC4 (Chris Lammons), PENALTY UK illegal formation 5 yards to the SC9, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 17DOWNS15 plays · 70 yds · 5:2532% → 27%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
31.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 3 yds to the SCaro 32Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+4
32.0%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for 4 yds to the SCaro 36Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+9
31.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 9 yds to the SCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
33.5%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+6
34.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 6 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
34.8%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Chad Terrell for 5 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+9
36.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Deebo Samuel for 9 yds to the Kent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
36.4%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Ty'Son Williams for 3 yds to the Kent 18Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+8
34.6%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 8 yds to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
SCDrive 19MISSED FG4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5328% → 23%
UKDrive 20FG8 plays · 49 yds · 3:2379% → 94%
Q4 12:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
20.4%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, PENALTY SC pass interference (JaMarcus King) 15 yards to the UK43, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 21TD8 plays · 77 yds · 2:3310% → 28%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+25
9.7%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Shi Smith for 25 yds to the SCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
11.1%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 9 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+30
11.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Bryan Edwards for 30 yds to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+4
11.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to Hayden Hurst for 4 yds to the Kent 9Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+9
27.9%
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22FG12 plays · 77 yds · 4:1979% → 95%
Q4 6:26
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+12
21.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 12 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 23INT3 plays · -3 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:26
Jake Bentley pass complete to OrTre Smith for 9 yds for a TD, (Parker White KICK)
+16
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:15
Timeout SOUTH CAROLINA, clock 02:15
-8.6
TD · Q2 8:37
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-7.9