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LSU

LSU 7 at Mississippi State 37

MSST
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:23 · Josh Growden punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior−17.7Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:38: Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +5.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:44: Darrel Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK) — LSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:07: N. Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (J. Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +9.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:53: Jace Christmann 45 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +6.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:10: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 45 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +11.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:07LSU 4th & 6 at LSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:40MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23LSU 4th & 10 at LSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:32MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:48LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:04MSST 4th & 6 at LSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:19LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:53MSST 4th & 3 at LSU 27, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.3%−1.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−8.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:20LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:09LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 22, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:55MSST 4th & 5 at LSU 10, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:34LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 30, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:22LSU 4th & 14 at MSST 31, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:28MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 27, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:36LSU 4th & 11 at MSST 35, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:38MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:44LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:07MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:10MSST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:01MSST Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:4870% → 68%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.9%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
30.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 5 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
30.2%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
30.5%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-5
30.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 13
OWN 34
-16
30.8%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-16 Yards) to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 29
OWN 18
+12
31.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 12 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+11
31.6%
Danny Etling run for 11 yds to the LSU 41 Danny Etling fumbled, recovered by LSU Danny EtlingSimilar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
31.7%
Josh Growden punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2232% → 32%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
31.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 16 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
32.1%
Aeris Williams run for 19 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
32.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-15
32.8%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Jackson, Jesse, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference 15 yards to the MISSSTATE45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+4
32.6%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
32.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
32.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 40 yds, fair catch by D.J. Chark at the LSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:0867% → 66%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
32.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 14 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.8%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
32.7%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
33.0%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+15
33.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
32.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
32.7%
Russell Gage run for no gain to the LSU 47Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
33.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
33.9%
Josh Growden punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:4534% → 35%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
33.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+6
33.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 6 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
34.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the MisSt 28 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 16
OWN 18
+6
34.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
34.7%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+1
34.9%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
35.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 50 yds, downed at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2765% → 64%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
34.9%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
35.1%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
35.6%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:48
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+14
36.4%
Josh Growden punt for 53 yds , Donald Gray returns for 14 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:0337% → 45%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
36.8%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+13
37.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 13 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
38.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+28
38.5%
Aeris Williams run for 28 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
39.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+10
39.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 10 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:4158% → 65%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.5%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
42.0%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
42.2%
Derrius Guice run for 9 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
42.5%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+25
43.1%
Derrius Guice run for 25 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
42.3%
Derrick Dillon run for 13 yds to the MisSt 7 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 7
OPP 17
+7
42.4%
Darrel Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
35.1%
Darrel Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:2740% → 45%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.7%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
40.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 8 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
41.9%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MS 43 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
42.8%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
42.8%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
43.7%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
44.0%
Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
44.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+1
44.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 1 yd to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
44.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
45.3%
Jace Christmann 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3956% → 53%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
44.2%
Guice, Derrius rush for loss of 2 yards to the LSU23, PENALTY LSU personal foul 10 yards to the LSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
44.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+7
45.1%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+3
46.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 3 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
47.4%
Josh Growden punt for 31 yds, downed at the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:0348% → 62%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
48.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
46.9%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+22
45.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 22 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
50.2%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+1
50.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
49.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
51.2%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Arden Key and Greg Gilmore for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+19
50.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 19 yds to the LSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
50.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the LSU 3Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.9%
N. Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (J. Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:5961% → 74%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.3%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
61.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 7 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
61.9%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete, PENALTY LSU roughing passer 15 yards to the MISSSTATE48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+18
64.3%
Aeris Williams run for 18 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
66.5%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 26Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 2
OPP 26
-5
66.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
66.8%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+1
66.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 1 yd to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+45
73.6%
Jace Christmann 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1326% → 25%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
72.7%
Derrius Guice run for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
73.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (4 Yards) to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
73.3%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
72.7%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
74.2%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Russell GageSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
75.4%
Josh Growden punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:0378% → 94%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
77.8%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Thomas, Jordan, PENALTY LSU personal foul 15 yards to the MISSSTATE36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
78.4%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
79.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
80.0%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
82.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 7 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
82.7%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+45
94.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 45 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:497% → 6%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
93.4%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
93.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
93.7%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+35
93.9%
Josh Growden punt for 52 yds , Donald Gray returns for 35 yds to the LSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FG
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:0695% → 97%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+24
94.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 24 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
94.9%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+1
95.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the LSU 10Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
95.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
96.6%
Jace Christmann 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:084% → 3%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.7%
Russell Gage run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
97.0%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.1%
Josh Growden punt for 34 yds , Donald Gray returns for no gain to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:2698% → 100%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
97.8%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
97.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 11 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
98.2%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+19
98.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 19 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 20 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:320% → 0%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 10 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 19 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 11 yds to the MisSt 35 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 9
OPP 45
+18
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to Darrel Williams for 18 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-4
99.8%
Danny Etling sacked by Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+6
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 6 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Dontavian Lee run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 48 yds, downed at the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Drake DavisSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 15 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
Danny Etling run for 7 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+2
99.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 2 yds to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
99.9%
Danny Etling sacked by Marquiss Spencer and Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 14
50
+16
99.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 16 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
99.9%
Derrick Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Derrick DillonSimilar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 11
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 44 yds · 5:21100% → 100%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+11
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 11 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for 14 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Kylin Hill run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
100.0%
Nick Gibson run for 4 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+12
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 12 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:10
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 45 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q2 0:07
N. Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (J. Christmann KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 9:44
Darrel Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)
-7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com