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MISS

Ole Miss 16 at California 27

CAL
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:12 · Matt Anderson 46 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior−16.4Home team on offense−1.0Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:02: D.K. Metcalf 71 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich PAT failed) — MISS win probability +4.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:16: Vic Wharton III 19 Yd pass from Ross Bowers (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +12.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q3 2:47: Matt Anderson 19 Yd Field Goal — CAL win probability +9.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:44: Matt Anderson 41 Yd Field Goal — CAL win probability +18.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:00: Cameron Goode 32 Yd Interception Return (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +22.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 12MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:07MISS 4th & 4 at CAL 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.4%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:52CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 25, down 3
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:22CAL 4th & 22 at CAL 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:12CAL 4th & 14 at MISS 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:39CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:40MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 15, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:52CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:52MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 41, up 9
    Close callPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:58MISS 4th & 17 at MISS 36, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00CAL 4th & 14 at CAL 45, down 9
    Numbers favored punt by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%−2.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:22CAL 4th & 4 at MISS 43, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−2.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:54MISS 4th & 7 at CAL 41, up 2
    Close callPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−2.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:14CAL 4th & 5 at CAL 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:58MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−5.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:47CAL 4th & 1 at MISS 2, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    60% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%−6.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−22.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:51MISS 4th & 15 at CAL 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−4.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−3.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:42CAL 4th & 1 at MISS 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−9.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−5.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:48CAL 4th & 12 at MISS 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−4.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−16.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:36MISS 4th & 21 at MISS 12, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−6.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:44CAL 4th & 7 at MISS 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−23.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:36MISS 4th & 13 at CAL 19, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:17CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:58MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:02MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:16CAL Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:00CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1FG
9 plays · 71 yds · 2:3872% → 71%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 9 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
28.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+19
28.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Tre Nixon for 19 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+42
28.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 42 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
28.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Cal 5Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
29.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Cal 4Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
29.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
29.3%
Gary Wunderlich 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4430% → 30%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
29.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 3 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
29.7%
Patrick Laird run for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
29.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q1 10:52
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
29.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0470% → 69%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
29.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for a loss of 8 yards to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+9
30.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 9 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 29
-5
30.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Alex Givens) to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+22
30.7%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Jaylinn Hawkins return for 22 yds to the Miss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:5831% → 33%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
31.3%
Patrick Laird run for 2 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+6
31.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 6 yds to the Miss 13Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
32.6%
Patrick Laird 13 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:1968% → 69%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
32.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (Shea Patterson) to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+72
31.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 72 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 2:3631% → 31%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
30.9%
Laird, Patrick rush for 8 yards to the CALIFORNIA29, PENALTY CALIFORNIA holding (Daltoso, Valentino) 10 yards to the CALIFORNIA11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 20
OWN 11
-2
31.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 21
OWN 9
+3
31.2%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 12Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+28
31.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 28 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
32.0%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
32.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
31.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Patrick LairdSimilar
Q1 5:30
4TH & 7
OWN 43
-15
31.3%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 22
OWN 28
0
30.9%
Dylan Klumph punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:0368% → 68%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
31.9%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 4 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
31.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 4 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+9
31.7%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 9 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
31.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 4 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+11
31.5%
Shea Patterson run for 11 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
31.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+4
31.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
31.6%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted Devante Downs return for no gain to the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8MISSED FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:5433% → 33%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
32.6%
Enwere, Vic rush for 3 yards to the CALIFORNIA26, PENALTY OLEMISS offside (TEAM) 5 yards to the CALIFORNIA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+17
33.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 17 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
34.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 6 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+2
34.5%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+5
34.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 5 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
35.1%
Vic Enwere run for 17 yds to the Miss 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
35.6%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
35.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-4
35.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
33.2%
Matt Anderson 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
29.2%
D.K. Metcalf 71 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:5129% → 28%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
28.6%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
28.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 7
OWN 32
-5
28.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Delay of Game (Ross Bowers) to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+2
27.8%
Ross Bowers run for 2 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
27.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Van Jefferson at the Miss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4370% → 70%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
29.6%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 5 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-13
29.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Rod Taylor) to the Miss 13Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 18
OWN 13
+11
29.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-9
30.2%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 9 yards to the Miss 15 Shea Patterson fumbled, recovered by Miss Shea PattersonSimilar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+61
30.5%
Will Gleeson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the CALIFORNIA 39 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Evan Weaver) to the Cal 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2328% → 27%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
28.3%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
28.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
27.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
27.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 38 yds, downed at the Miss 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5371% → 73%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
29.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Alex Givens) to the Miss 29Similar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+1
29.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ty Quick for 1 yd to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+6
29.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 6 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+5
27.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 5 yds to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
27.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Luke Rubenzer at the Cal 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14INT
14 plays · 74 yds · 3:1928% → 30%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
27.6%
Patrick Laird run for 9 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
28.2%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
27.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 10 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
28.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 7 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
29.4%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
50
+10
29.5%
Bowers, Ross pass incomplete, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Hartsfield, Myles) 10 yards to the OLEMISS40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
29.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 16 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
30.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
30.6%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
29.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Gavin ReinwaldSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+9
27.6%
Anderson, Matt field goal attempt from 35 GOOD, clock 04:00, PENALTY OLEMISS personal foul (Gates, DeMarquis) 9 yards to the OLEMISS9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q2 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
29.8%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Miss 8Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+15
29.8%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted C.J. Moore return for 15 yds to the Miss 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:1273% → 73%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
26.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 15Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+15
27.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 15 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
25.8%
Shea Patterson sacked by Devante Downs for 0 yards to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
26.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Devante Downs) to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
24.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (Greg Little) to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+11
25.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 11 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-13
24.1%
Shea Patterson sacked by Alex Funches for a loss of 13 yards to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 17
OWN 36
0
26.9%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
26.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16INT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:5126% → 24%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
25.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
25.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 1 yd to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+15
24.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 15 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
26.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+18
25.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 18 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
27.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-4
27.2%
Ross Bowers sacked by Breeland Speaks for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
24.9%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
24.3%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted, touchback. C.J. Moore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 3:1327% → 43%
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
27.3%
Patrick Laird run for 12 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
28.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 8 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-4
29.3%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
27.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 7 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
29.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Kanawai NoaSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
28.9%
Ross Bowers run for 9 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-3
29.1%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 43Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+6
27.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 6 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
29.3%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
29.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 15 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
30.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
30.5%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
43.1%
Vic Wharton III 19 Yd pass from Ross Bowers (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 2:2162% → 61%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
37.6%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for no gain to the Miss 27 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Miss 17Similar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+5
38.1%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+15
38.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Devante Downs) to the Miss 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
36.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 19 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
35.0%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
35.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 8 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-3
35.0%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the Cal 41Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
36.5%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
38.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3642% → 40%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
41.5%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
42.1%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
40.8%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
39.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Van Jefferson at the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:1660% → 57%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
39.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 12 yds to the Miss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
38.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-15
37.0%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete, PENALTY OLEMISS illegal block (Wilkins, Jordan) 15 yards to the OLEMISS24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 21
OWN 24
-5
40.4%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 26
OWN 19
+11
40.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 11 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 15
OWN 30
0
41.5%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
42.8%
Will Gleeson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 4:0343% → 58%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
42.9%
Patrick Laird run for 14 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
45.7%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+7
43.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 7 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+20
45.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 20 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
49.4%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+19
49.5%
Enwere, Vic rush for 8 yards to the OLEMISS22, PENALTY OLEMISS personal foul (Gates, DeMarquis) 19 yards to the OLEMISS11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
49.6%
Vic Enwere run for 7 yds to the Miss 4Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
49.8%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
47.8%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Miss 2Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+19
57.5%
Matt Anderson 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22MISSED FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 4:3947% → 43%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
53.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 7 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+1
52.5%
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd to the Miss 25Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+3
54.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
53.5%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+13
52.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 13 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
50.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 5 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
49.6%
Shea Patterson run for no gain to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+12
50.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Markell Pack for 12 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
49.8%
Shea Patterson run for 8 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+3
48.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
48.4%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
48.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
54.0%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+48
57.4%
Luke Logan 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23MISSED FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 4:4259% → 58%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
59.2%
Patrick Laird run for 6 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-1
61.9%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+4
57.7%
Ross Bowers run for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+5
57.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (TEAM) to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
61.6%
Patrick Laird run for 3 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
62.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
60.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Patrick Laird for 6 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+25
59.2%
Vic Enwere run for 25 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
64.7%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-3
65.2%
Patrick Laird run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
62.9%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
58.0%
Matt Anderson 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:4744% → 41%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
56.0%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 1 yd to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-1
54.9%
Shea Patterson sacked by Hamilton Anoa'i for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 23Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 12
-11
57.3%
Shea Patterson sacked by Raymond Davison III for a loss of 11 yards to the Miss 12 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Shea Patterson) to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 21
OWN 12
0
59.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Miss 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3165% → 85%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
65.3%
Patrick Laird run for no gain to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
64.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 6 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+16
64.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Kanawai Noa for 16 yds to the Miss 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
68.3%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
68.7%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
66.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
85.1%
Matt Anderson 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26INT TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2226% → 5%
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.3%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
73.1%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+32
95.2%
Cameron Goode 32 Yd Interception Return (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27DOWNS
17 plays · 38 yds · 1:546% → 4%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
94.4%
Shea Patterson run for 2 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
94.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+15
94.9%
Patterson, Shea pass incomplete, PENALTY CALIFORNIA pass interference (Beck, Traveon) 15 yards to the OLEMISS49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.8%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
94.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
93.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 8 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
92.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
93.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Markell Pack for 4 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
93.0%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
93.7%
Shea Patterson run for 12 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
93.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
95.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Markell PackSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
95.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 8
OPP 14
-5
96.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (Shea Patterson) to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 13
OPP 19
-11
96.5%
Shea Patterson sacked by Devante Downs for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:00
Cameron Goode 32 Yd Interception Return (Matt Anderson Kick)
+22
FG · Q4 3:44
Matt Anderson 41 Yd Field Goal
+18.4
TD · Q3 11:16
Vic Wharton III 19 Yd pass from Ross Bowers (Matt Anderson Kick)
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com