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MER

Mercer 10 at Auburn 24

AUB
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMER aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMER score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:10 · Kaelan Riley pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 4 yds to the Aub 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Pregame prior+2.2Home team on offense+29.0Garbage-time factor+7.8Score differential+9.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.3Time remaining+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:06: Kamryn Pettway run for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +2.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:48: Kaelan Riley pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Fisher KICK) — MER win probability +4.7 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:48: Cole Fisher kickoff for 45 yds , Spencer Nigh return for 8 yds to the Aub 28 — AUB win probability +2.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:25: Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Mercr 25 — AUB win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:50: Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MER made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:25MER 4th & 3 at MER 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:38MER 4th & 9 at AUB 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:21MER 4th & 8 at AUB 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:54AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 25, up 7
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:54MER 4th & 2 at AUB 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:09MER 4th & 2 at AUB 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:27MER 4th & 5 at MER 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:37AUB 4th & 4 at MER 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:50AUB 4th & 9 at MER 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−7.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:50MER 4th & 13 at MER 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:22MER 4th & 1 at MER 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:10MER 4th & 5 at AUB 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MER made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:03AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:06AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:48MER Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:50AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:1699% → 99%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
99.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 8 yds to the Mercr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Kyle DavisSimilar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Mercr 48Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+18
99.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 18 yds to the Mercr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kyle Davis for 6 yds Kyle Davis fumbled, forced by LeMarkus Bailey, recovered by Mercr LeMarkus BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Tee Mitchell for -1 to the Mercr 24Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
99.0%
Tee Mitchell run for no gain to the Mercr 24Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.0%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 7 yds to the Mercr 31Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+6
98.9%
Grant Goupil punt for 49 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1499% → 99%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
98.9%
Jarrett Stidham run for 6 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
98.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 2 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+2
98.8%
Jarrett Stidham run for 2 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
98.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
98.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 42Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
98.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Eli StoveSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
98.7%
Ian Shannon punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Chandler Curtis at the Mercr 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:121% → 2%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
98.7%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Tee Mitchell for 7 yds to the Mercr 20Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 3
OWN 20
0
98.6%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Marquise IrvinSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+13
98.7%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Sam Walker for 13 yds to the Mercr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
98.6%
Tee Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Mercr 35Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
98.5%
Tee Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Mercr 39Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+11
98.4%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Sam Walker for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
98.3%
Kaelan Riley run for 1 yd to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
98.3%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Sam Walker for no gain to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
98.2%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Marquise IrvinSimilar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
98.2%
Grant Goupil punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Aub 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:2598% → 98%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
98.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
98.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+12
98.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 12 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
98.1%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 28Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+27
98.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 27 yds to the Mercr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
98.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 22 yds to the Mercr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
98.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Sal Cannella for 5 yds to the Mercr 18Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+1
98.0%
Jarrett Stidham run for 1 yd to the Mercr 17Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+9
97.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Devan Barrett for 9 yds to the Mercr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
97.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Mercr 4Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:362% → 2%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.1%
Tee Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mercr 24Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
98.1%
CJ Leggett run for 14 yds to the Mercr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
97.9%
CJ Leggett run for 5 yds to the Mercr 43Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
97.9%
CJ Leggett run for 1 yd to the Mercr 44Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+7
97.8%
CJ Leggett run for 7 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.7%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Sam Walker for no gain to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
97.7%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Sam WalkerSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.7%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Tee Mitchell for 2 yds to the Aub 47Similar
Q2 12:21
4TH & 8
OPP 47
+7
97.7%
Grant Goupil punt for 38 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 7 yds to the Aub 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1698% → 97%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
97.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 14Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+2
97.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+9
97.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
97.4%
Ian Shannon punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mercr 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:513% → 3%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.2%
Tee Mitchell run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
50
+6
97.1%
Tee Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-1
97.0%
Tee Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
97.0%
Grant Goupil punt for 41 yds, downed at the Aub 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:2597% → 97%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
97.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+6
97.1%
Jarrett Stidham run for 6 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
97.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+3
97.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Devan Barrett for 3 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+6
96.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 6 yds Eli Stove fumbled, forced by Stephen Houzah, recovered by Mercr Lee BennettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 10FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:014% → 4%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
96.4%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Carlton Davis) to the Aub 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
96.4%
Kaelan Riley run for 2 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
96.2%
CJ Leggett run for 6 yds to the Aub 4Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
96.2%
CJ Leggett run for no gain to the Aub 4Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+21
95.8%
Cole Fisher 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:3496% → 96%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Noah Igbinoghene for 5 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
95.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Noah Igbinoghene for 14 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
96.1%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Prince Tega Wanogho) to the Aub 39Similar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+38
95.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 38 yds to the Mercr 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
96.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Mercr 21Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+6
96.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Mercr 15Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+3
95.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Mercr 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
95.9%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Noah Igbinoghene for 5 yds to the Mercr 7Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 5
OPP 7
-2
95.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 9 Kamryn Pettway fumbled, recovered by Mercr Jalen PennSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:485% → 5%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
95.4%
Tee Mitchell run for no gain to the Mercr 9Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
95.3%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Avery Ward for 5 yds to the Mercr 14Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
95.2%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Sam WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+9
95.3%
Grant Goupil punt for 51 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 9 yds to the Aub 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:4695% → 96%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
95.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 7 yds to the Mercr 49Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+31
95.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kamryn Pettway for 16 yds to the Mercr 33 for a 1ST down MERCER Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (LeMarkus Bailey) to the Mercr 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
95.6%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Lee Bennett for a loss of 3 yards to the Mercr 21Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+6
95.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 6 yds to the Mercr 15Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+3
95.2%
Jarrett Stidham run for 3 yds to the Mercr 12Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
96.1%
Daniel Carlson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
96.1%
Alex Lakes run for 4 yds to the Mercr 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:125% → 5%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Sam Walker for no gain to the Mercr 25Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.2%
Tee Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 23Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
95.3%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Chandler CurtisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:396% → 6%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
94.2%
Tee Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+13
94.0%
Tee Mitchell run for 13 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
93.6%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Marquise IrvinSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
93.6%
Kaelan Riley run for 5 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+1
93.6%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 1 yd to the Aub 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 2:4495% → 97%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
94.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 5 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-1
94.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+18
94.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kyle Davis for 18 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
95.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 7 yds to the Mercr 49Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+2
95.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Mercr 47Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+6
94.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the Mercr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
95.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 23 yds Ryan Davis fumbled, forced by Travonte Easley, recovered by Aub for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
95.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 9 yds to the Mercr 9Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
95.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Ryan DavisSimilar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
97.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:023% → 4%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.6%
CJ Leggett run for 2 yds to the Mercr 27Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
96.4%
CJ Leggett run for 3 yds to the Mercr 30Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.3%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Chandler CurtisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19INT
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:1997% → 97%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
97.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
97.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Devan Barrett for 5 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+15
97.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 15 yds to the Aub 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
97.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Mercr 48Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+20
97.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Eli Stove for 20 yds to the Mercr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 20TD
13 plays · 83 yds · 5:323% → 9%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
96.7%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Chandler Curtis for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 15Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+3
97.0%
Alex Lakes run for 3 yds to the Mercr 18Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+17
97.0%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 17 yds to the Mercr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.5%
Alex Lakes run for 1 yd to the Mercr 36Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+23
96.6%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Chandler Curtis for 8 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Roughing Passer (Dontavius Russell) to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
96.4%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Tee Mitchell for 23 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
96.0%
Alex Lakes run for 2 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
96.4%
Alex Lakes run for 5 yds to the Aub 11Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+4
96.7%
CJ Leggett run for 4 yds to the Aub 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.4%
CJ Leggett run for no gain to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.3%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Marquise IrvinSimilar
Q4 13:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.5%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Fisher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21MISSED FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 4:4094% → 94%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
94.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
94.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+6
94.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kamryn Pettway for 6 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
94.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
94.6%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 8 yds to the Mercr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
94.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Mercr 44Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+10
94.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kamryn Pettway for 10 yds to the Mercr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
95.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 2 yds to the Mercr 32 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sal Cannella) to the Mercr 42Similar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 18
OPP 42
+38
94.4%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kyle Davis for 38 yds to the Mercr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
94.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Mercr 3Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
94.9%
AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Harris) to the Mercr 18Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+1
94.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Mercr 17Similar
Q4 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+8
93.9%
Jarrett Stidham run for 8 yds to the Mercr 9Similar
Q4 8:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
93.5%
Daniel Carlson 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:408% → 7%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
91.8%
CJ Leggett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mercr 17Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
92.0%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Chandler CurtisSimilar
Q4 8:03
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
92.6%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Edmond GrahamSimilar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+9
92.9%
Grant Goupil punt for 33 yds for a 1ST down , Stephen Roberts returns for 9 yds to the Mercr 26 for a 1ST down MERCER Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Trammell) to the Mercr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:3595% → 98%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
94.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the Mercr 25Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+3
95.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Mercr 22Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+7
94.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Mercr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
95.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Mercr 11Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
95.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Mercr 7Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+3
94.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Mercr 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:373% → 2%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Tucker CannonSimilar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.6%
Kaelan Riley run for 8 yds to the Mercr 33Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
97.8%
Alex Lakes run for 1 yd to the Mercr 34Similar
Q4 3:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
97.9%
Alex Lakes run for 1 yd to the Mercr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.9%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Alex Lakes for 6 yds to the Mercr 41Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+29
97.8%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 29 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.1%
Kaelan Riley pass incomplete to Chandler CurtisSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
97.1%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Sam Walker for 9 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-4
97.2%
Alex Lakes run for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+4
98.4%
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 4 yds to the Aub 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:2599% → 99%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 13
OWN 19
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:48
Kaelan Riley pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 7 yds for a TD, (Cole Fisher KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q4 4:50
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+3.5
TD · Q3 8:06
Kamryn Pettway run for 9 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com