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CSU

Colorado State 23 at Alabama 41

ALA
2017 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2017 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:51 · Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 9 yds to the Alab 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+44.8Home team on offense+2.5Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:18: Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 4 yds for a TD ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Averett) declined, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:00: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 52 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:52: Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +2.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:18: Damien Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:24CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:51CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:13ALA 4th & 3 at CSU 28, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:19CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:12ALA 4th & 8 at CSU 35, up 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:34CSU 4th & 8 at ALA 9, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:35ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:30CSU 4th & 3 at ALA 49, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:51ALA 4th & 3 at CSU 25, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:53CSU 4th & 5 at ALA 5, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:12ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 23, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:43ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:56ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:18CSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:00ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:52ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:18ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:53CSU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:46CSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0697% → 97%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 14 yds to the Alab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
97.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 17 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
97.3%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+6
97.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 6 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+8
97.1%
Damien Harris run for 8 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
97.2%
Jalen Hurts 27 Yd Run (Andy Pappanastos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:563% → 3%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
97.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 2 yds to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
97.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 26Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+4
97.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 4 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
96.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 65 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
4 plays · 95 yds · 1:1897% → 97%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
96.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 8 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+1
96.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the Alab 14Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+8
96.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 8 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+78
97.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 78 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:503% → 3%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Levi WallaceSimilar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
97.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 23Similar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
97.0%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Cameron Butler, broken up by Levi WallaceSimilar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+9
97.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 9 yds to the Alab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:3597% → 97%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
97.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 12 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
97.1%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+8
97.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 8 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
97.0%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+4
97.0%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 3
OPP 28
0
97.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
97.1%
Andy Pappanastos 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:493% → 3%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.0%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete to Gallup, Michael, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Averett, Anthony) 15 yards to the COLOST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLOST.Similar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
97.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-3
96.9%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+4
96.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 4 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
96.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7MISSED FG
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5897% → 97%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
97.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 2 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
97.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 7 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
97.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
97.1%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:53
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
97.1%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+52
97.0%
JK Scott 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:303% → 4%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
96.9%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+6
96.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 6 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q2 14:31
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+11
96.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
50
+15
96.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 15 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
96.6%
Nick Stevens run for 13 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
96.6%
Nick Stevens run for 6 yds to the Alab 16Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
96.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
96.6%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Alab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
96.5%
Nick Stevens run for no gain to the Alab 11 Nick Stevens fumbled, recovered by ColSt Nick StevensSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
96.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
96.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
95.7%
Wyatt Bryan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4796% → 96%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
96.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 6 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
96.3%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
96.1%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
96.0%
JK Scott punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 6:034% → 7%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
95.7%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+39
95.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 39 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
95.4%
Rashaad Boddie run for 4 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
95.6%
Rashaad Boddie run for 1 yd to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
95.5%
Stevens, Nick pass complete to Johnson, Olabisi for 8 yards to the ALABAMA32, PENALTY COLOST ineligible downfield on pass (Fackrell, Dalton) 5 yards to the ALABAMA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+25
95.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalton Fackrell for 25 yds to the Alab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
95.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Adam Prentice for 9 yds to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 1
OPP 11
0
95.1%
Rashaad Boddie run for no gain to the Alab 11Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
95.2%
Nick Stevens run for 2 yds to the Alab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
95.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Alab 7Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
94.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the Alab 4Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.7%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 4 yds for a TD ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Averett) declined, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:0693% → 96%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
93.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 11 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
93.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
93.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
93.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+52
96.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 52 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:435% → 5%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
95.5%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ColSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:175% → 6%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
95.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 12 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.1%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Dalton FackrellSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
95.1%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Michael Gallup for 14 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
94.7%
Nick Stevens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
94.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+8
94.7%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
94.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the Alab 33Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
94.3%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Ronnie Harrison return for no gain to the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 5:3795% → 99%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
95.4%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+4
95.4%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+5
95.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
95.4%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+4
95.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+12
95.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 12 yds to the Alab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
95.7%
Bo Scarbrough run for 8 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
95.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+13
95.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 13 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.7%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Robert FosterSimilar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
95.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
95.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 6 yds to the ColSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
95.7%
Damien Harris run for 6 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+12
96.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Miller Forristall for 12 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:512% → 2%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
98.3%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 27 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Warren JacksonSimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
98.2%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Levi WallaceSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+65
98.3%
Nick Stevens pass intercepted Hootie Jones return for 65 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:2399% → 100%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
98.6%
Josh Jacobs run for 6 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael Gallup, broken up by Minkah FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Cameron ButlerSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+18
99.8%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Dalyn Dawkins for 18 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 4
50
+1
99.8%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd to the Alab 49Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete, broken up by Da'Ron PayneSimilar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:29100% → 100%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
99.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+11
99.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 11 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
99.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+15
99.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 15 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
99.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to DeVonta Smith for 24 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Hale HentgesSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 7 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+43
99.8%
Andy Pappanastos 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:480% → 1%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Detrich Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 22Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+29
99.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 29 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Detrich Clark run for 3 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+9
99.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 9 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
99.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the Alab 31Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+15
99.9%
Stevens, Nick pass incomplete to Fackrell, Dalton (Holcombe, Keith), PENALTY ALABAMA personal foul (Allen, Christopher) 15 yards to the ALABAMA16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLOST.Similar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
99.9%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 11 yds to the Alab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Alab 3Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jamar King) to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
99.9%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Jake Bennett) to the Alab 5Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.9%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Izzy Matthews, broken up by Keith HolcombeSimilar
Q4 9:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.2%
Nick Stevens run for 5 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3099% → 99%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.3%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 23Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for no gain to the Alab 23Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
99.3%
JK Scott punt for 59 yds, fair catch by Olabisi Johnson at the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 6:191% → 2%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
99.3%
Izzy Matthews run for 13 yds to the ColSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
99.4%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 29Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+26
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 11 yds to the Alab 40 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Isaiah Buggs) to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.5%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-2
99.5%
Izzy Matthews run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 41Similar
Q4 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+16
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 16 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Izzy Matthews for 4 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
99.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+4
99.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the Alab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.4%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for no gain to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Adam Prentice for 6 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+6
99.5%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Detrich Clark for 6 yds to the Alab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.4%
Nick Stevens pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.0%
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
99.3%
Damien Harris run for 10 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
99.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 17 yds to the ColSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
99.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:00
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 52 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q3 6:52
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q2 2:18
Nick Stevens pass complete to Warren Jackson for 4 yds for a TD ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Anthony Averett) declined, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com