2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadAAMU aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreAAMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:15 · Sam Loy punt for 40 yds , Marceles Clash returns for no gain to the AlaAM 20 Marceles Clash fumbled, recovered by AlaAM
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:38: Ralph Webb run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — AAMU win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q1 5:49: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 9 yds to the AlaAM 45 — AAMU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:05: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 45 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 5:10: Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the AlaAM 8 — VAN win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:17: Kyle Shurmur run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 7AAMU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
- Q1 8:38AAMU 4th & 17 at AAMU 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 2:39AAMU 4th & 6 at AAMU 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q2 15:00VAN 4th & 1 at AAMU 23, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.0%71% to convertField goal98.8%−0.170% to makePunt98.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:07AAMU 4th & 9 at AAMU 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 6:03AAMU 4th & 10 at AAMU 47, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
- Q2 4:17AAMU 4th & 16 at AAMU 19, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 15:00AAMU 4th & 5 at AAMU 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 12:15VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 45, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 3:28VAN 4th & 10 at AAMU 38, up 42Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%30% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%−<0.138% to makePunt99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:28AAMU 4th & 8 at AAMU 40, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 3 at AAMU 43, up 42Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%52% to convertField goal99.8%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:03AAMU 4th & 10 at AAMU 24, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:56VAN 4th & 4 at AAMU 37, up 42Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%48% to convertField goal99.9%−0.140% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:01AAMU 4th & 15 at AAMU 2, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:50VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 49, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:17AAMU 4th & 12 at AAMU 42, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:08VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 38, up 42Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it100.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 8:38VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:39VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:05VAN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:17VAN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:42VAN Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:33VAN Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVANDrive 1TD12 plays · 67 yds · 6:22100% → 100%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
99.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 16 yds to the AlaAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 8 yds to the AlaAM 29Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
99.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 4 yds to the AlaAM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.5%
Joseph Burke run for 4 yds to the AlaAM 29 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the AlaAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+3
99.5%
Aqeel Glass pass complete to Zabrian Moore for 3 yds to the AlaAM 43Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-6
99.5%
Aqeel Glass sacked by Charles Wright and Dare Odeyingbo for a loss of 6 yards to the AlaAM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3TD7 plays · 54 yds · 3:1099% → 99%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 9 yds to the AlaAM 45Similar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
99.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 21 yds to the AlaAM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 10 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
VANDrive 5DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+9
99.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 9 yds to the AlaAM 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
VANDrive 7TD6 plays · 81 yds · 2:3399% → 100%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
99.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 15 yds to the Vandy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
99.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 5 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+8
99.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+45
99.5%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 45 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.4%
Damion May pass complete to Roderick Randolph for 4 yds to the AlaAM 29Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+2
99.4%
Damion May pass complete to Trevon Walters for 2 yds to the AlaAM 47Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+8
99.4%
TEAM punt blocked by Andrew Rector blocked by Andrew Rector Jalen Pinkney return for 8 yds to the AlaAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9TD4 plays · 10 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
AAMUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Aqeel Glass pass incomplete to Zabrian Moore, broken up by Ryan WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.8%
Aqeel Glass sacked by Emmanuel Smith and Charles Wright for a loss of 6 yards to the AlaAM 19Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Nick Carden punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11TD5 plays · 65 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 25 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
AAMUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
VANDrive 14PUNT10 plays · 10 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q3 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 5 yds to the Vandy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 16
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
ALABAMA A&M Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Vandy 45Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Sam Loy punt for 40 yds , Marceles Clash returns for no gain to the AlaAM 20 Marceles Clash fumbled, recovered by AlaAMSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 15INT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Aqeel Glass pass complete to Marceles Clash for 5 yds to the AlaAM 25Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Aqeel Glass pass complete to Zabrian Moore for 1 yd to the AlaAM 35Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+9
99.9%
Aqeel Glass pass intercepted Oren Burks return for 9 yds to the AlaAM 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD1 play · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 23 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 17INT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:33
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+15
99.9%
Aqeel Glass pass incomplete to Marceles Clash, PENALTY VANDY personal foul (Nifae Lealao) 15 yards to the AAMU49, 1ST DOWN AAMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Damion May pass intercepted Dayo Odeyingbo return for no gain to the AlaAM 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18MISSED FG4 plays · 0 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
VANDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 32 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
AAMUDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:03
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.9%
Nick Carden punt for 45 yds , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 9 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 12:56
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Trey Ellis for 8 yds to the AlaAM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:01
4TH & 15
OWN 2
+11
100.0%
Nick Carden punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 48 , Kalija Lipscomb returns for 11 yds to the Vandy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-2
99.9%
Deuce Wallace pass complete to Jamauri Wakefield for a loss of 2 yards to the Vandy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
100.0%
Damion May pass complete to Octayvius Miles for 23 yds to the AlaAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 9
OWN 45
-3
100.0%
Damion May sacked by Josh Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the AlaAM 42Similar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Nick Carden punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:05
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 45 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 4:17
Kyle Shurmur run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 8:38
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-0.2