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MSST

Mississippi State 57 at Louisiana Tech 21

LT
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:20 · Brady Farlow punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense+1.4Pregame prior−30.9Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:10: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day PAT BLOCKED) — MSST win probability +5.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:27: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK) — MSST win probability +4.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:12: Nick Fitzgerald run for 30 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK) — MSST win probability +4.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Jonathan Barnes 45 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +12.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 14:27: Nick Fitzgerald run for 44 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK) — MSST win probability +3.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:21LT 4th & 7 at MSST 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:21MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:32LT 4th & 4 at LT 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:05MSST 4th & 10 at LT 19, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:20LT 4th & 13 at LT 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:08MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:06LT 4th & 3 at LT 24, up 6
    Close callPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00LT 4th & 2 at LT 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:39MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:27LT 4th & 12 at LT 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:12LT 4th & 10 at LT 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:48LT 4th & 2 at MSST 2, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:48LT 4th & 10 at LT 25, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:54MSST 4th & 6 at LT 13, up 43
    Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:24LT 4th & 9 at MSST 43, down 43
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:46LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:10MSST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:27MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:12MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:41MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:27MSST Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:24MSST Touchdown, up 42 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:15LT Touchdown, down 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1FG
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:3916% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.5%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+58
15.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 58 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
15.5%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
15.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
15.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
16.4%
Jonathan Barnes 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete, broken up by Amik RobertsonSimilar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
16.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
16.8%
Jarred Craft run for 6 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
16.8%
Jarred Craft run for 3 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
16.7%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
16.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for no gain to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
16.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 6 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
16.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Boston ScottSimilar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
16.7%
Brady Farlow punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4INT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
18.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+3
18.1%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
18.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-5
18.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+8
18.3%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Donald Gray for 8 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+8
18.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+61
18.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Amik Robertson return for 61 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4320% → 22%
Q1 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
20.3%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.3%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FG
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:4178% → 78%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+59
21.7%
Aeris Williams run for 59 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
20.9%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the LaTch 18Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
20.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 9
OPP 18
-1
21.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 19Similar
Q1 5:05
4TH & 10
OPP 19
+36
22.2%
Tucker Day 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:4523% → 23%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.7%
Boston Scott run for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
22.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
23.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Boston ScottSimilar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-8
22.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, intentional grounding (J'Mar Smith) to the LaTch 22Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
22.6%
Brady Farlow punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
22.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-1
22.2%
Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
22.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
23.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4125% → 21%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
24.5%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+1
24.6%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 25Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 2
OWN 25
-1
24.2%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
21.2%
TEAM punt blocked by Jeffery Simmons blocked by Jeffery Simmons Jeffery Simmons return for no gain for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
21.9%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to WATTS, Marlon (Chris Rayford), PENALTY MS pass interference (Chris Rayford) 15 yards to the LATECH40, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
22.8%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+32
22.8%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Mark McLaurin return for 32 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
1 play · 17 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
17.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1019% → 19%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.9%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
18.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Kam McKnight for 6 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
18.9%
Brady Farlow punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
18.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-3
18.6%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 13:39
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
19.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:39
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
19.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 48 yds, downed at the LaTch 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
19.8%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Gerri Green for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 14 J'Mar Smith fumbled, recovered by MisSt Tre Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:2782% → 86%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
18.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 8 yds to the LaTch 6Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
14.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.1%
J'Mar Smith run for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
15.3%
Jarred Craft run for 4 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
15.3%
Jarred Craft run for 2 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Boston Scott run for no gain to the LaTch 36Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
15.2%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Dezmond Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 34Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
14.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy Veal, broken up by Mark McLaurinSimilar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 12
OWN 34
-9
14.9%
Brady Farlow punt for 47 yds , Gabe Myles returns for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 25 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Ronald Lewis) to the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0786% → 91%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
14.3%
Aeris Williams run for 36 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
13.6%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+6
13.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 6 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+30
8.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 30 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
10.2%
Boston Scott run for 20 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
10.9%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-5
10.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Marcus Gaines) to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+2
10.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 2 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
10.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Kam McKnightSimilar
Q2 7:12
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+5
10.4%
Brady Farlow punt for 36 yds , Gabe Myles returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 3:5692% → 97%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
8.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 9 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
8.4%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
8.2%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
8.2%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+9
8.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 9 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
8.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 8
50
+9
8.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
7.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 9 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+6
7.7%
Dontavian Lee run for 6 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
7.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 5 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
4.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 21 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day PAT BLOCKED), (Tucker Day PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
2.9%
Amik Robertson return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:412% → 15%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
2.1%
Jarred Craft run for 16 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
2.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Kam McKnight for 7 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
1.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Marcus GainesSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+11
1.5%
Jarred Craft run for 11 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
1.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+13
1.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 13 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
1.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+45
14.6%
Jonathan Barnes 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:3393% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+28
7.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 28 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
4.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 44 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22FUMBLE TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:395% → 2%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
4.8%
Jarred Craft run for 8 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+24
4.3%
Boston Scott run for 24 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
5.4%
Boston Scott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+9
4.9%
Jarred Craft run for 9 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
5.6%
Jarred Craft run for 7 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+11
4.9%
J'Mar Smith run for 11 yds to the MisSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
6.6%
Jarred Craft run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
6.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 9 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
5.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Jarred CraftSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+90
1.6%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Gerri Green for a loss of 8 yards J'Mar Smith fumbled, recovered by MisSt Jeffery Simmons , return for 0 yards , return for 90 yds, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.6%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-11
1.6%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Leo Lewis and Johnathan Abram for a loss of 11 yards to the LaTch 17Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+8
1.5%
J'Mar Smith run for 8 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
1.5%
Brady Farlow punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:0699% → 99%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
1.2%
Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
1.2%
Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
1.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 14 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
1.2%
Kylin Hill run for 10 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
1.2%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+7
1.2%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the LaTch 11Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+7
1.1%
Deddrick Thomas run for 7 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
1.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the LaTch 2Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.6%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25PUNT
13 plays · 3 yds · 3:241% → 0%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.5%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
0.5%
Boston Scott run for 4 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
0.5%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to POWELL, Cee Jay (C. Dantzler), PENALTY MS personal foul (C. Dantzler) 15 yards to the LATECH47, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
0.5%
Jarred Craft run for 1 yd to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+33
0.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Marcus Gaines for 33 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
0.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Boston Scott for 6 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
0.4%
Boston Scott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+4
0.4%
HOLLY, Bobby rush for 1 yard to the MS9 (Tre Brown;Grant Harris), PENALTY MS 12 men on the field 4 yards to the MS6, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.4%
Boston Scott run for no gain to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.4%
TEAM run for no gain to the LaTch 7 TEAM fumbled,Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OWN 7
+21
0.2%
Boston Scott run for 21 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OWN 28
0
0.4%
Brady Farlow punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.4%
Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
0.3%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
50
+7
0.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 7 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
0.3%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
0.3%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
0.3%
Kylin Hill run for 9 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+11
0.3%
Nick Gibson run for 11 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
0.3%
Nick Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 19Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+6
0.3%
Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
0.3%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete, broken up by Trey SpencerSimilar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+3
0.4%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 6:090% → 0%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+14
0.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 14 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
0.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 6 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
0.1%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 5 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 6 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
0.1%
Westin Elliott pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 4 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
0.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
0.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
0.2%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
0.2%
Westin Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
0.2%
Westin Elliott pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+19
0.2%
Israel Tucker run for 19 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
0.2%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+10
0.2%
Westin Elliott pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 10 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
0.2%
Westin Elliott pass incomplete to Cee Jay Powell, broken up by Stephen AdegokeSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.1%
Westin Elliott pass complete to Zach Cousar for 9 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Jonathan Barnes 45 yd FG GOOD
+12.8
TD · Q1 0:10
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 17 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day PAT BLOCKED)
-5.3
TD · Q2 7:12
Nick Fitzgerald run for 30 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com