Try the model
UTC

Chattanooga 10 at LSU 45

LSU
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadUTC aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreUTC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:58 · Josh Growden punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Joseph Parker at the Chatt 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior+21.4Home team on offense+32.6Score differential+28.6Blowout margin+14.8Garbage-time factor+11.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:23: Danny Etling pass complete to Drake Davis for 36 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK) — LSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:11: Derrius Guice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK) — LSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:11: LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the LSU 20 — UTC win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:41: Derrius Guice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — LSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:18: Darrel Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — LSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:36UTC 4th & 2 at LSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:00UTC 4th & 5 at LSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:45UTC 4th & 6 at LSU 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:25UTC 4th & 8 at UTC 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:32UTC 4th & 8 at UTC 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:47LSU 4th & 21 at LSU 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:22UTC 4th & 17 at UTC 15, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44LSU 4th & 6 at UTC 30, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:56LSU 4th & 3 at UTC 33, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:08UTC 4th & 18 at UTC 17, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:35UTC 4th & 1 at UTC 30, down 39
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:58LSU 4th & 12 at UTC 41, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:24LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 34, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:20UTC 4th & 10 at UTC 37, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:51LSU 4th & 14 at UTC 28, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:45UTC 4th & 1 at LSU 45, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UTC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:23LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:11LSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:41LSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:18LSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:23LSU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:18UTC Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTCDrive 1FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 5:381% → 2%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
98.9%
Darrell Bridges run for 4 yds to the Chatt 34Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
98.8%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+11
98.8%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Joseph Parker for 11 yds to the Chatt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
98.7%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Alphonso Stewart for 22 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.7%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
98.7%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+5
98.7%
LSU Penalty, Encroachment (5 Yards) to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 12:13
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+3
98.7%
Nick Tiano pass complete to James Stovall for 3 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+4
98.6%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Bailey Lenoir for 4 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
98.5%
Darrell Bridges run for 2 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+11
98.4%
Nick Tiano run for 2 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.4%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.4%
Darrell Bridges run for 3 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.3%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
98.3%
Victor Ulmo 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:1198% → 98%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
98.2%
Derrick Dillon run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
98.2%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+17
98.2%
Danny Etling run for 17 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
98.1%
Derrius Guice run for 11 yds to the Chatt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
98.1%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the Chatt 36Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+36
98.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Drake Davis for 36 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 3DOWNS
15 plays · 33 yds · 4:192% → 2%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.1%
Darrell Bridges run for 7 yds to the Chatt 32Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
98.0%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Darrell Bridges for 4 yds to the Chatt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.9%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
97.9%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+5
98.0%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Chatt 41Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+8
97.9%
Nick Tiano run for 8 yds to the Chatt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
97.8%
Darrell Bridges run for 5 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+6
97.8%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Joseph Parker for 6 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
97.7%
Alex Trotter run for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
97.5%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+2
97.5%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Alphonso Stewart for 2 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 6
OPP 36
-6
97.7%
Nick Tiano sacked by John Battle for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:1998% → 98%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+46
97.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 46 yds to the Chatt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
97.6%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the Chatt 6Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
97.6%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the Chatt 1 for a 1ST down, CHATTANOOGA Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards)Similar
Q1 0:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.0%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)Similar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
97.9%
LSU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the LSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:362% → 2%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
97.9%
Darrell Bridges run for 2 yds to the Chatt 30Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-4
97.9%
Nick Tiano sacked by Corey Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the Chatt 26Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+4
97.9%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Joseph Parker for 4 yds to the Chatt 30Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+8
97.9%
Colin Brewer punt for 49 yds, D.J. Chark returns for 8 yds to the LSU 29, LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6MISSED FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3798% → 98%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+27
97.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to JaCoby Stevens for 27 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
97.9%
Darrel Williams run for 7 yds to the Chatt 47Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-10
97.8%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 43Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+46
97.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 46 yds to the Chatt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
97.8%
Darrel Williams run for 1 yd to the Chatt 10Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+1
97.8%
Danny Etling run for 1 yd to the Chatt 9Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 8
OPP 23
-14
97.7%
Danny Etling sacked by Ian Hayes for a loss of 14 yards to the Chatt 23, LSU Penalty, Intentional Grounding (0 Yards) to the Chatt 23Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 22
OPP 23
+40
97.6%
Jack Gonsoulin 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:462% → 2%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
97.6%
Darrell Bridges run for 2 yds to the Chatt 25Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Colin Brewer punt for 44 yds, downed at the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:2598% → 97%
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
97.5%
Derrius Guice run for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 16
OWN 25
-5
97.4%
Danny Etling sacked by Tae Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 21
OWN 20
0
97.2%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 21
OWN 20
0
97.2%
Josh Growden punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Joseph Parker at the Chatt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.3%
Nick Tiano pass intercepted Andraez Williams return for no gain to the Chatt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:2997% → 98%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
97.4%
Derrius Guice run for 25 yds to the Chatt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
97.4%
Russell Gage run for 7 yds to the Chatt 6Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 3
OPP 6
0
97.4%
Derrius Guice run for no gain to the Chatt 6Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
98.2%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 11PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · -7 yds · 2:102% → 1%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
98.0%
CHATTANOOGA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Chatt 17Similar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+8
98.0%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Joseph Parker for 8 yds to the Chatt 25Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
97.9%
Darrell Bridges run for 3 yds to the Chatt 28Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-5
97.8%
CHATTANOOGA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Chatt 23Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 9
OWN 23
-8
98.6%
Nick Tiano sacked by Corey Thompson for a loss of 8 yards to the Chatt 15Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 17
OWN 15
+65
98.7%
Colin Brewer punt for 50 yds , D.J. Chark returns for 65 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 12INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:271% → 1%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
98.6%
Darrell Bridges run for 2 yds to the Chatt 26Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-4
98.6%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Darrell Bridges for a loss of 4 yards to the Chatt 22Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
98.6%
Nick Tiano pass intercepted Kary Vincent Jr. return for no gain to the Chatt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2799% → 99%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
99.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 9 yds to the Chatt 25Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
99.1%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Chatt 30Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
99.3%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
99.2%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
99.2%
Connor Culp 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:302% → 1%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.3%
Darrell Bridges run for 5 yds to the Chatt 35Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
98.0%
Darrell Bridges run for 3 yds to the Chatt 38Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+27
97.6%
Darrell Bridges run for 27 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.7%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
98.7%
LSU Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (5 Yards) to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+47
98.8%
Victor Ulmo 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 6:1399% → 100%
Q3 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
99.3%
Derrius Guice run for 11 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.3%
Derrius Guice run for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
99.4%
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.4%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.4%
Darrel Williams run for 5 yds to the Chatt 49Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+9
99.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 9 yds to the Chatt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.5%
Russell Gage run for 3 yds to the Chatt 37Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
99.5%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Chatt 33Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
99.5%
Danny Etling pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+6
99.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Russell Gage for 6 yds to the Chatt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
99.5%
Derrius Guice run for 19 yds to the Chatt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.5%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the Chatt 4Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Darrell Bridges run for 3 yds to the Chatt 28Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-11
99.7%
Nick Tiano sacked by K'Lavon Chaisson for a loss of 11 yards to the Chatt 17, CHATTANOOGA Penalty, Intentional Grounding (0 Yards) to the Chatt 17Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
99.7%
Colin Brewer punt for 52 yds, downed at the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.8%
Darrel Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+48
99.8%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 48 yds to the Chatt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the Chatt 15Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+12
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 12 yds to the Chatt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Darrel Williams run for 3 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Darrell Bridges run for 4 yds to the Chatt 25Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Nick Tiano run for 5 yds to the Chatt 30Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Colin Brewer punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 15 yds to the Chatt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for no gain to the Chatt 49Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the Chatt 44Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass complete to Russell Gage for 5 yds to the Chatt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-7
99.9%
Russell Gage run for a loss of 1 yard to the Chatt 40, Russell Gage fumbled, recovered by LSU Russell Gage, return for a loss of 7 yards to the Chatt 47Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 18
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 18
OPP 47
+6
99.9%
Myles Brennan run for 6 yds to the Chatt 41Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Josh Growden punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Joseph Parker at the Chatt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 20TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+67
99.9%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Joseph Parker for 67 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Nick Tiano run for 3 yds to the LSU 16Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
Darrell Bridges run for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Ulmo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Myles Brennan run for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Joseph Parker at the Chatt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
99.9%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Alphonso Stewart for 13 yds to the Chatt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.9%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Alphonso Stewart for 5 yds to the Chatt 42Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-5
99.9%
Alex Trotter run for a loss of 5 yards to the Chatt 37Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Colin Brewer punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 5:11100% → 100%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 7 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 5 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the Chatt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the Chatt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 11 yds to the Chatt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for 1 yd to the Chatt 23Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Myles Brennan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 9
OPP 23
-5
99.9%
Nick Brossette run for a loss of 5 yards to the Chatt 28Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+45
99.9%
Connor Culp 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
100.0%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Bailey Lenoir for 21 yds to the Chatt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Nick Tiano pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-4
100.0%
Nick Tiano sacked by K'Lavon Chaisson for a loss of 4 yards to the Chatt 42Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+5
100.0%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Chatt 47Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+8
100.0%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Joseph Parker for 8 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-2
100.0%
Alex Trotter run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
100.0%
Lanard Fournette run for 7 yds to the Chatt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:41
Derrius Guice run for 6 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q1 0:11
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q3 8:18
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com