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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreAUB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:05 · Will Spiers punt for 43 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 25 yds to the Aub 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:48: Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +12.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:47: Kelly Bryant run for 27 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK) — CLEM win probability +10.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:47: Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete — AUB win probability +6.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:30: Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds to the Aub 46 — CLEM win probability +5.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:55: Eli Stove run for 6 yds to the Clem 49 — AUB win probability +3.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7AUB made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 10:11AUB 4th & 1 at CLEM 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.8%67% to convertField goal33.6%−0.292% to makePunt33.0%−0.9average punt
- Q1 7:13AUB 4th & 6 at CLEM 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snapGo for it34.3%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call34.4%91% to makePunt33.2%−1.2average punt
- Q1 5:02CLEM 4th & 19 at CLEM 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snapGo for it63.3%−0.611% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.9%average punt
- Q1 1:20AUB 4th & 22 at AUB 42, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snapGo for it35.0%−1.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.2%average punt
- Q2 14:17AUB 4th & 9 at CLEM 10, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snapGo for it37.1%−0.426% to convertField goalTheir call37.6%88% to makePunt34.7%−2.9average punt
- Q2 12:12CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, down 6Close callPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it59.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.6%−0.9average punt
- Q2 10:14AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 23, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snapGo for it41.5%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.6%average punt
- Q2 6:47CLEM 4th & 6 at AUB 29, down 6Close callKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snapGo for it56.0%40% to convertField goalTheir call55.9%−0.258% to makePunt51.4%−4.6average punt
- Q2 4:01AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 45, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snapGo for it48.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.6%average punt
- Q3 8:49AUB 4th & 18 at AUB 22, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it18.4%−4.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q3 5:39AUB 4th & 3 at CLEM 37, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.0%53% to convertField goal20.3%−2.740% to makePunt20.0%−3.0average punt
- Q3 2:53CLEM 4th & 22 at CLEM 49, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it80.2%−4.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.5%average punt
- Q3 1:38AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 26, down 8Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snapGo for it16.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 0:15CLEM 4th & 3 at AUB 48, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 85.1% before the snapGo for it86.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.9%−1.5average punt
- Q4 13:42AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 7, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it10.3%−4.115% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.4%average punt
- Q4 10:07CLEM 4th & 14 at AUB 38, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snapGo for it85.2%−1.519% to convertField goal86.4%−0.238% to makePuntTheir call86.6%average punt
- Q4 7:31AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 31, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it10.8%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q4 6:05CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 37, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snapGo for it89.5%−1.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q4 3:15AUB 4th & 25 at AUB 40, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.97% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 0:48CLEM Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.6%97% to makeGo for two61.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:47CLEM Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.6%97% to makeGo for two75.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAUBDrive 1FG21 plays · 69 yds · 7:3238% → 39%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
62.5%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
62.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+23
62.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 23 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+15
62.2%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Marcus Edmond) to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
62.1%
CLEMSON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Clem 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 2:0563% → 62%
AUBDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 3:3338% → 39%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+15
61.9%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mark Fields) to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-15
59.7%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by TEAM for a loss of 15 yards to the CLEMSON 42 AUBURN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jarrett Stidham) to the Aub 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4FUMBLE1 play · 1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
60.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 1 yd Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, forced by Jeff Holland, recovered by Aub Jeremiah DinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5FG4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4841% → 43%
Q2 14:50
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-4
58.3%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5858% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4844% → 44%
CLEMDrive 8MISSED FG10 plays · 25 yds · 3:1858% → 55%
Q2 9:40
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
57.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 4 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
57.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 2 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
57.6%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+4
56.2%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Adam Choice for 4 yds to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3749% → 50%
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
51.5%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 28Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+10
51.8%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 10 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
50.1%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Kam Martin for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 4:01
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
49.9%
Ian Shannon punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD13 plays · 88 yds · 3:0953% → 69%
Q2 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+8
52.3%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 8 yds to the Clem 20Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+20
51.5%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 20 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
53.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 5 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
53.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 11 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+29
53.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 29 yds to the Aub 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
55.8%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 6 yds to the Aub 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11END OF HALF4 plays · 10 yds · 0:2536% → 37%
Q2 0:16
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-1
61.8%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD10 plays · 79 yds · 3:0364% → 78%
Q3 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
64.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 6 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+33
64.4%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 33 yds to the Aub 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+7
66.7%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 7 yds to the Aub 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 2:4125% → 22%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
75.0%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 9 yds to the Aub 29Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-9
74.2%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Clelin Ferrell for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 26 Jarrett Stidham fumbled, forced by Clelin Ferrell, recovered by Aub Prince Tega Wanogho , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 14
OWN 26
-4
77.0%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Austin Bryant and Kendall Joseph for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+9
77.9%
Ian Shannon punt for 37 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14FUMBLE4 plays · 19 yds · 0:5179% → 81%
Q3 7:59
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+15
79.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Carlton Davis) to the Aub 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
80.5%
C.J. Fuller run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 31 C.J. Fuller fumbled, forced by Marlon Davidson, recovered by Aub Tray Matthews, return for 13 yds to the Aub 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15DOWNS7 plays · 5 yds · 2:0826% → 23%
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
74.7%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
74.1%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Clelin Ferrell) to the Clem 47Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+7
76.2%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Ryan Davis for 7 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-14
76.6%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Tre Lamar for a loss of 14 yards to the Aub 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 2:3783% → 82%
Q3 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+7
83.2%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Deon Cain for 7 yds to the Aub 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
84.1%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Derrick Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
84.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for no gain to the Aub 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0919% → 17%
CLEMDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1586% → 84%
AUBDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2817% → 15%
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+2
83.3%
Jarrett Stidham pass complete to Will Hastings for 2 yds to the Aub 15Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-8
84.4%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by J.D. Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the Aub 7Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 15
OWN 7
-3
85.4%
Ian Shannon punt for 49 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:2387% → 86%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
87.9%
Kelly Bryant sacked by Montavious Atkinson for a loss of 10 yards to the Aub 44 CLEMSON Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Kelly Bryant) to the Aub 44Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
86.1%
Will Spiers punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Stephen Roberts at the Aub 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2913% → 12%
CLEMDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1590% → 90%
Q4 6:05
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+25
89.8%
Will Spiers punt for 43 yds , Stephen Roberts returns for 25 yds to the Aub 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 2:4014% → 9%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
85.4%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Christian Wilkins for a loss of 3 yards to the Clem 48Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 13
OPP 48
-7
87.5%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Dorian O'Daniel and Austin Bryant for a loss of 7 yards to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 20
OWN 45
-5
90.0%
Jarrett Stidham sacked by Austin Bryant for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 25
OWN 40
+3
91.0%
Ian Shannon punt for 45 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 3 yds to the Clem 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24END OF GAME12 plays · 39 yds · 2:5594% → 97%
Q4 2:58
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+13
95.0%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 13 yds to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 43 for a 1ST down AUBURN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Darrell Williams) to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Kelly Bryant run for 3 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q3 11:47
Kelly Bryant run for 27 yds for a TD, (Greg Huegel KICK)
+10.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 7:47
Jarrett Stidham pass incomplete
-6.4