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TCU

TCU 28 at Arkansas 7

ARK
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:41 · Blake Johnson punt for 41 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 14 yds to the Ark 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense−8.9Pregame prior−5.4Score differential−2.7Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:39: Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +8.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Connor Limpert kickoff for 63 yds to the TCU 2 , KaVontae Turpin return for 23 yds to the TCU 25, TCU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the TCU 15 — ARK win probability +5.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:45: Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 2 yds Desmon White fumbled, recovered by TCU — TCU win probability +5.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:39: Darius Anderson run for 15 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down — TCU win probability +6.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:18: Darius Anderson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK) — TCU win probability +7.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:25ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:51TCU 4th & 10 at TCU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:17ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56ARK 4th & 4 at TCU 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:53ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:25TCU 4th & 21 at TCU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−3.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:12ARK 4th & 2 at TCU 42, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−2.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:41ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:18TCU 4th & 4 at ARK 32, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−1.4
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:24TCU 4th & 12 at ARK 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    76.6%−0.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:47ARK 4th & 21 at ARK 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−4.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:10ARK 4th & 5 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:30ARK 4th & 10 at TCU 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:43TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:15ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:39TCU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:18TCU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.8
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:04TCU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3035% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
35.3%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+3
35.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 13Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-2
35.7%
Austin Allen sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 11 Austin Allen fumbled, forced by Ben Banogu, recovered by Ark Frank Ragnow , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
35.8%
Blake Johnson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the Ark 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:1764% → 65%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
35.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 8 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+9
35.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 9 yds to the Ark 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
35.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the Ark 25Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
36.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Desmon WhiteSimilar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+18
36.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 18 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
36.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 2 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
36.2%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the Ark 1Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.0%
Sewo Olonilua run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1535% → 39%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.4%
David Williams run for 5 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
35.6%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
35.4%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 5 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
35.6%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+7
35.9%
David Williams run for 7 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
38.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 49 yds for a TD, (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0963% → 62%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
37.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyle Hicks for 1 yd to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-1
37.5%
Kenny Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 40Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
38.1%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
38.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2539% → 38%
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
38.5%
Chase Hayden run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 33Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+2
38.6%
Chase Hayden run for 2 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
38.6%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
38.3%
Blake Johnson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6INT
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:4761% → 62%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
38.8%
Darius Anderson run for 8 yds to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
38.4%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
38.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 7 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+26
38.2%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Santos Ramirez return for 16 yds to the ARKANSAS 43 ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ark 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:0440% → 42%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
40.3%
Devwah Whaley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ark 40Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+32
39.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jeremy Patton for 32 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
41.6%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jared Cornelius for 2 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-4
41.9%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the TCU 30Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+19
42.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Cheyenne O'Grady for 19 yds to the TCU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
42.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 6 yds to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
42.9%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the TCU 5Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
42.6%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
41.8%
Cole Hedlund 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 8TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 6:5460% → 69%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
40.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 3 yds to the TCU 23Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
40.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 6 yds to the TCU 29Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
40.5%
Kyle Hicks run for 5 yds to the TCU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
40.3%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+8
39.4%
Darius Anderson run for 8 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
39.4%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
39.1%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
39.4%
Kenny Hill run for 2 yds to the Ark 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
39.5%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
39.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kenedy Snell for 7 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+7
39.7%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the Ark 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
38.8%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-10
38.9%
Hill, Kenny pass complete to Olonilua, Sewo for 3 yards to the ARKANSAS20, PENALTY TCU illegal block 10 yards to the ARKANSAS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 17
OPP 33
+7
40.2%
Kenny Hill run for 7 yds to the Ark 26Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+22
39.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 22 yds to the Ark 4, Shaun Nixon fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.9%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3734% → 33%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
33.9%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU holding 10 yards to the ARKANSAS40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
35.0%
David Williams run for 1 yd to the Ark 41Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
34.5%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+1
33.8%
Austin Allen run for 1 yd to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 5:53
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
32.9%
Blake Johnson punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:1667% → 66%
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
32.9%
TCU Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the TCU 10Similar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
33.0%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 20
OWN 10
-1
33.2%
Kyle Hicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 9Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 21
OWN 9
0
33.4%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 21
OWN 9
0
34.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jared Cornelius at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0335% → 34%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
50
+3
35.2%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the TCU 47Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+3
35.4%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+2
34.7%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
33.5%
Blake Johnson punt for 37 yds, downed at the TCU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:3469% → 69%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
30.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 7 yds to the TCU 12Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+9
30.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 9 yds to the TCU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
30.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
30.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 5 yds to the TCU 26Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+5
31.0%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the TCU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13FUMBLE
17 plays · 79 yds · 6:3369% → 74%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
31.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 2 yds Desmon White fumbled, recovered by TCUSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+10
31.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 10 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
30.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 14 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
28.6%
Kyle Hicks run for 7 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
28.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 1
50
+2
28.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the Ark 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
28.3%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TCU 47Similar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+10
28.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to John Diarse for 10 yds to the Ark 43Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
27.6%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q3 10:49
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
27.7%
Kenny Hill run for 5 yds to the Ark 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
27.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
27.2%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+11
27.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 11 yds to the Ark 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
26.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 2 yds to the Ark 17Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+14
26.7%
Darius Anderson run for 14 yds to the Ark 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
25.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ArkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2431% → 29%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
30.8%
Devwah Whaley run for 3 yds to the Ark 9Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+2
30.6%
Devwah Whaley run for 2 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 11
0
29.6%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 5
OWN 11
+14
28.9%
Blake Johnson punt for 41 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 14 yds to the Ark 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1274% → 72%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
26.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 6 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
25.2%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
25.8%
Kenny Hill run for no gain to the Ark 32Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
27.7%
Kenny Hill punt for 32 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16MISSED FG
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:0130% → 30%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
30.3%
Austin Allen pass complete to Devwah Whaley for a loss of 4 yards to the Ark 16Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
30.0%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+16
28.7%
Austin Allen run for 16 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
30.9%
David Williams run for 26 yds to the TCU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
34.7%
David Williams run for 2 yds to the TCU 40Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+15
34.6%
Allen, Austin pass incomplete, PENALTY TCU pass interference 15 yards to the TCU25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
36.4%
David Williams run for 9 yds to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
36.4%
David Williams run for no gain to the TCU 16Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+13
34.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 13 yds to the TCU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
36.5%
Devwah Whaley run for 1 yd to the TCU 2Similar
Q3 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
34.1%
Devwah Whaley run for no gain to the TCU 2Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
32.1%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 0
OPP 2
+20
30.2%
Cole Hedlund 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:1576% → 79%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
24.0%
Darius Anderson run for 15 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
22.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Desmon White for 7 yds to the TCU 42Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+9
21.4%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the Ark 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
20.4%
Kyle Hicks run for 2 yds to the Ark 47Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+9
20.3%
Kenny Hill run for 9 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
20.1%
Darius Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 13
OPP 41
0
20.4%
Kenny Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+1
21.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 1 yd to the Ark 40Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
21.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ark 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 3:2424% → 19%
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
24.2%
David Williams run for 4 yds to the Ark 19Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+4
24.6%
Austin Allen run for 4 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+9
24.0%
Austin Allen pass complete to Deon Stewart for 9 yds to the Ark 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
25.2%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
24.4%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ark 22Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 20
OWN 22
0
23.7%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 20
OWN 22
-1
22.2%
Austin Allen sacked by Corey Bethley for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 21Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 21
OWN 21
0
19.0%
Blake Johnson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:1584% → 98%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
15.7%
Kenny Hill run for 3 yds to the TCU 48Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
14.1%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Shaun Nixon for 8 yds to the Ark 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
12.4%
Darius Anderson run for 3 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-5
11.8%
Kenny Hill sacked by De'Jon Harris and Austin Capps for a loss of 5 yards to the Ark 46Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+15
12.4%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete, PENALTY ARKANSAS pass interference 15 yards to the ARKANSAS31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TCU.Similar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
11.1%
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+13
9.7%
Darius Anderson run for 13 yds to the Ark 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
2.2%
Darius Anderson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for 13 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 39 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
0.9%
Austin Allen run for 20 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.9%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.9%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 5
50
0
0.8%
Austin Allen run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 5
50
+21
0.7%
Austin Allen pass complete to Jonathan Nance for 21 yds to the TCU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
1.0%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
0.9%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
0.8%
Austin Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 10
OPP 29
-7
0.8%
Austin Allen sacked by Ridwan Issahaku for a loss of 7 yards to the TCU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:39
Kyle Hicks run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q4 2:18
Darius Anderson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Song KICK)
-7.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:39
Darius Anderson run for 15 yds to the TCU 35 for a 1ST down
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com