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FRES

Fresno State 10 at Alabama 41

ALA
2017 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2017 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:11 · JK Scott punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dejonte O'Neal at the FrsSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Pregame prior+33.1Home team on offense+28.6Score differential+13.2Blowout margin+9.4Garbage-time factor+9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:25: Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:15: Damien Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:03: Andy Pappanastos 24 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:06: Chason Virgil pass complete to Derrion Grim for 26 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK) — FRES win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:41: Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 16 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:49FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:53ALA 4th & 1 at FRES 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:03FRES 4th & 1 at ALA 9, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:35FRES 4th & 22 at FRES 22, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:44ALA 4th & 15 at FRES 38, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:44FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:03FRES 4th & 8 at ALA 43, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:11ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 41, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:34FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 14, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:03ALA 4th & 6 at FRES 6, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:12FRES 4th & 5 at midfield, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:04ALA 4th & 14 at ALA 45, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:08ALA 4th & 4 at FRES 4, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 14:21ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:24ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:25ALA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:15ALA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:06FRES Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:41ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:2499% → 99%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
99.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 18 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.1%
Jalen Hurts 55 Yd Run (Andy Pappanastos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:111% → 1%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 4:1999% → 99%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q1 11:56
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-7
99.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+17
99.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
99.0%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+2
99.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
98.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 7 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
98.9%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
98.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
98.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Hale Hentges for 23 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:061% → 2%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+17
98.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 17 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Da'Mari ScottSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
98.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.9%
Virgil, Chason pass complete to Scott, Da'Mari for 7 yards to the FRESNOST45, PENALTY ALABAMA substitution infraction 5 yards to the FRESNOST43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+5
98.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Isaiah Buggs) to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
98.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+30
98.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 30 yds to the Alab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
98.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the Alab 13Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
98.7%
Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
98.7%
Chason Virgil run for no gain to the Alab 9Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+28
98.5%
Jimmy Camacho 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2899% → 99%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.5%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
98.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jerry Jeudy for 8 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.5%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
98.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+16
98.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 16 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
98.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 9 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+8
98.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
98.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 8 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+4
98.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
98.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
98.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:151% → 1%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
98.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+2
98.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
98.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+7
98.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 7 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+10
98.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jared Rice for 10 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
98.6%
Da'Mari Scott run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
98.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-13
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the FrsSt 22 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FrsSt David PattersonSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 22
OWN 22
+4
98.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 30 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 4 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:4299% → 98%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
98.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Robert Foster for 9 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+6
98.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
98.6%
Tua Tagovailoa sacked by Jeffrey Allison for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+3
98.6%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 15
OPP 38
0
98.4%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Robert FosterSimilar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 15
OPP 38
0
98.3%
JK Scott punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:512% → 2%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
98.4%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+8
98.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 8 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.2%
Da'Mari Scott run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+11
98.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 11 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
98.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 1 yd to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
98.0%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 34 yds, downed at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:2098% → 99%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
98.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 10 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
98.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 7 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+14
98.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Robert Foster for 14 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+28
98.2%
Jalen Hurts run for 28 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
98.2%
Calvin Ridley run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.0%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:592% → 1%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
99.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:511% → 1%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 8 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
99.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
99.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST down ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Minkah Fitzpatrick) to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.1%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the Alab 44Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+1
99.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 1 yd to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jared RiceSimilar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
99.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+7
99.5%
Damien Harris run for 7 yds to the Alab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
99.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 15 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.5%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Cam SimsSimilar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q3 9:11
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
99.5%
JK Scott punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dejonte O'Neal at the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
99.3%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 12
OWN 9
0
99.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 8:14
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+5
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 5 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 7
OWN 14
+8
99.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 53 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 8 yds to the Alab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 5:21100% → 100%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.5%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+8
99.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for 8 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+7
99.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
99.7%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Robert Foster, broken up by Jackson FinchSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+16
99.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q3 2:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
99.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.9%
Andy Pappanastos 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:370% → 0%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+7
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Josh Hokit run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Josh Hokit for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 5
50
0
99.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds, downed at the Alab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:59100% → 100%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 15 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
99.9%
Najee Harris run for 25 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
99.9%
Najee Harris run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 46Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-1
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Irv Smith Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 14
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa run for no gain to the Alab 45Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
99.9%
JK Scott punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 9 yds to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+3
99.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
99.9%
Chason Virgil sacked by Johnny Dwight for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+6
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 6 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+30
100.0%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Anthony Averett return for 30 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:37100% → 100%
Q4 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Najee HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Tua Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q4 7:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
99.9%
Andy Pappanastos 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 0:440% → 1%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
100.0%
Chason Virgil run for 11 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Derrion Grim for 26 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:16100% → 100%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
99.6%
Najee Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 28Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Najee Harris for 10 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+2
99.6%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
99.6%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Xavian Marks for 24 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
99.7%
Najee Harris run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
100.0%
Tua Tagovailoa pass complete to Henry Ruggs III for 16 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:330% → 0%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Da'Mari Scott for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan MimsSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for 15 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+6
100.0%
Josh Hokit run for 6 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Josh HokitSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+12
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 12 yds to the Alab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 9 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 15
-3
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:15
Damien Harris run for 5 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q2 14:25
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q4 6:06
Chason Virgil pass complete to Derrion Grim for 26 yds for a TD, (Jimmy Camacho KICK)
-0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com