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VAN

Vanderbilt 28 at Middle Tennessee 6

MTSU
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:11 · Sam Loy punt for 45 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−26.9Score differential−11.2Garbage-time factor−3.8Pregame prior−5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:53: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +10.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  2. MISSED FG · Q2 2:41: Tommy Openshaw 31 yd FG MISSED — VAN win probability +3.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:44: Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45 — VAN win probability +3.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Tommy Openshaw kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — VAN win probability +3.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:29: Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 73 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK) — VAN win probability +6.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q2 11:53MTSU 4th & 17 at MTSU 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 2:41VAN 4th & 13 at MTSU 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−3.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:41MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:11VAN 4th & 9 at MTSU 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    85.6%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:29MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:24VAN 4th & 22 at VAN 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:31MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:19VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 22, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 9 at VAN 17, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:46VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 16, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:54VAN 4th & 2 at VAN 43, up 22
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:55MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 18, down 22
    Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:55VAN 4th & 10 at MTSU 41, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:32MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 15, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:34VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 41, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:49MTSU 4th & 19 at VAN 19, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:31VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:41VAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:53VAN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:29VAN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:54MTSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    2.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2960% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.7%
Ralph Webb run for 4 yds to the Vandy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
39.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 6 yds to the Vandy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
39.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 23 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
39.7%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+37
39.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 37 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
39.7%
Ty Lee run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+19
39.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 19 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
39.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 12 yds to the Vandy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
40.0%
Shane Tucker run for 3 yds to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
40.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for no gain to the Vandy 45Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+28
39.9%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted Bryce Lewis return for 28 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 1:0461% → 64%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
39.1%
Ralph Webb run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+30
39.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 30 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 52 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
37.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
37.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+14
37.5%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to JAMES, Richie, PENALTY VANDY pass interference (L. Wiley) 14 yards to the VANDY41, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
37.7%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Dare Odeyingbo for a loss of 8 yards to the Vandy 36 Brent Stockstill fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Shane Tucker , return for 0 yards , return for 16 yds to the Vandy 36Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
37.8%
Ty Lee run for 6 yds to the Vandy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
37.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick Smith, broken up by Tre HerndonSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
37.9%
Brent Stockstill run for no gain to the Vandy 30Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+7
37.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 7 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 3
OPP 23
0
37.6%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass complete to JAMES, Richie for 11 yards to the VANDY12, PENALTY MT illegal touching (JAMES, Richie) 0 yards to the VANDY23, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 7:4365% → 79%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
34.7%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 25Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
34.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete, broken up by Walter BradySimilar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+19
34.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 19 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
34.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trey Ellis for 9 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
34.1%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
34.3%
Khari Blasingame run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
34.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+8
34.1%
Khari Blasingame run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
34.1%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+1
31.6%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+18
31.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 18 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
31.5%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
31.5%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
31.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive offside (Malik Manciel) to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
23.2%
Maurice Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
23.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-6
22.9%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Caleb Peart and Charles Wright for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
23.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 52 yds, downed at the Vandy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7MISSED FG
15 plays · 57 yds · 7:4080% → 84%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
20.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 3 yds to the Vandy 33Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
20.1%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 35Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-5
20.5%
VANDERBILT Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Vandy 30Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+13
20.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 13 yds to the Vandy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
19.7%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 44Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+7
19.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for 7 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+18
20.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 18 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
19.4%
Khari Blasingame run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+3
19.2%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
19.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Jared Pinkney for 9 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+2
19.2%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
19.2%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
19.2%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
19.8%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Trent SherfieldSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
16.2%
Tommy Openshaw 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
17.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
17.0%
Shane Tucker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
16.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Richie JamesSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
16.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 24 yds, downed at the MTnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3387% → 85%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
13.0%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
13.0%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Jared PinkneySimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
13.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Khari BlasingameSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
14.6%
Sam Loy punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
16.5%
Maurice Gordon run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
16.4%
Maurice Gordon run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
16.5%
Maurice Gordon run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.4%
Ty Lee run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
15.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
15.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 7 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
15.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the Vandy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:2488% → 94%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
12.3%
Ralph Webb run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 19Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
12.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Trent Sherfield for 8 yds to the Vandy 27Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+73
5.9%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 73 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.5%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
7.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
7.0%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Dare Odeyingbo for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+49
7.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kalija Lipscomb at the MIDDLETENN 40 VANDERBILT Penalty, personal foul (Tae Daley) to the Vandy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.4%
Ralph Webb run for 7 yds to the Vandy 32Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
4.8%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the Vandy 34Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
4.9%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.3%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Khari Blasingame for no gain to the Vandy 37Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
5.4%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to C.J. Duncan for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 36Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-6
5.4%
Kyle Shurmur sacked by Walter Brady for a loss of 6 yards to the Vandy 30Similar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 17
OWN 30
-5
6.0%
VANDERBILT Penalty, false start (Arnold Tarpley III) to the Vandy 25Similar
Q3 10:24
4TH & 22
OWN 25
0
6.0%
Sam Loy punt for 52 yds, downed at the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:025% → 4%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+17
4.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 17 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
5.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
4.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick Smith, broken up by Tre HerndonSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+3
4.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
3.9%
Brent Stockstill punt for 42 yds, downed at the Vandy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
1.8%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 16Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
1.8%
Ralph Webb run for 5 yds to the Vandy 21Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+1
1.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 1 yd to the Vandy 22Similar
Q3 4:19
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
1.9%
Sam Loy punt for 39 yds , Richie James returns for no gain to the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:142% → 2%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
2.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 5 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+12
1.9%
Richie James run for 12 yds to the Vandy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
2.1%
Ty Lee run for 5 yds to the Vandy 39Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+21
2.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 6 yds to the Vandy 33 for a 1ST down VANDERBILT Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nifae Lealao) to the Vandy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
2.3%
Richie James run for 2 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OPP 16
-1
2.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 17
0
1.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Oren BurksSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+4
1.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 4 yds to the Vandy 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
0.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Nathan Marcus for 3 yds to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
0.7%
Ralph Webb run for no gain to the Vandy 16Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
0.7%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to C.J. Duncan, broken up by Charvarius WardSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
0.8%
Sam Loy punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Vandy 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 1:051% → 3%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
0.7%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to SALTER, Tavonn (J. Williams), PENALTY VANDY pass interference (J. Williams) 15 yards to the VANDY32, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
0.8%
Maurice Gordon run for 9 yds to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+1
0.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 1 yd to the Vandy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
3.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 22 yds for a TD, (Canon Rooker PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
1.8%
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the Vandy 36Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
1.7%
Ralph Webb run for 6 yds to the Vandy 42Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
1.7%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Vandy 43Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
1.9%
Sam Loy punt for 47 yds , Richie James returns for no gain to the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
2.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete, broken up by Nifae LealaoSimilar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
2.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Shane TuckerSimilar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+8
2.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 8 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
2.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 39 yds, downed at the Vandy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
1.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Sam Dobbs for 16 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 43 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Vandy Kyle ShurmurSimilar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+2
1.1%
Ralph Webb run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
1.1%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Nathan Marcus, broken up by Myles HargesSimilar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
1.2%
Sam Loy punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
1.2%
Maurice Gordon run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
1.2%
Maurice Gordon run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-14
1.3%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Trent Sherfield and Charles Wright for a loss of 14 yards to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
1.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 48 yds, downed at the Vandy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
0.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 3 yds to the Vandy 40Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
0.6%
Khari Blasingame run for 1 yd to the Vandy 41Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
0.6%
Kyle Shurmur pass incomplete to Nathan Marcus, broken up by Chris MeltonSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+20
0.6%
Sam Loy punt for 38 yds , Richie James returns for 20 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25DOWNS
12 plays · 40 yds · 2:021% → 0%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
0.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 31 yds to the Vandy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
1.1%
Ty Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 29Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+19
1.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Richie James for 19 yds to the Vandy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-13
1.2%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Charles Wright for a loss of 13 yards to the Vandy 23Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 23
+9
0.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Shane Tucker for 9 yds to the Vandy 14Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
0.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Patrick Smith) to the Vandy 19Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
0
0.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Arnold Tarpley IIISimilar
Q4 0:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
0
0.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Vandy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:53
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Kalija Lipscomb for 4 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 12:29
Kyle Shurmur pass complete to Ralph Webb for 73 yds for a TD, (Tommy Openshaw KICK)
-6.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:44
Ralph Webb run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com