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CHSO

Charleston Southern 0 at Mississippi State 49

MSST
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadCHSO aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreCHSO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:31 · Logan Cooke punt for 59 yds, downed at the ChaSo 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Pregame prior+31.4Home team on offense+20.5Score differential+9.5Blowout margin+5.0Garbage-time factor+6.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:35: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 8 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK) — MSST win probability +1.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. SAFETY · Q1 3:20: Shane Bucenell run for a loss of 16 yards for a SAFETY Shane Bucenell fumbled, recovered by ChaSo Chanin Hamilton for a SAFETY — CHSO win probability +0.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: CHSO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 1:24: Aeris Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK) — MSST win probability +1.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. SAFETY · Q2 3:54: Noah Shuler run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY — MSST win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CHSO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:37: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK) — MSST win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CHSO made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:42CHSO 4th & 1 at CHSO 32, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:00MSST 4th & 4 at CHSO 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49MSST 4th & 8 at CHSO 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:34CHSO 4th & 20 at CHSO 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49CHSO 4th & 13 at CHSO 22, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:13MSST 4th & 2 at CHSO 45, up 23
    Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:03CHSO 4th & 6 at CHSO 26, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:08MSST 4th & 12 at CHSO 23, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:18CHSO 4th & 8 at CHSO 21, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:31MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 40, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:15CHSO 4th & 3 at CHSO 32, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:54MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 14, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:44CHSO 4th & 4 at CHSO 31, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:42CHSO 4th & 9 at CHSO 10, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:57MSST 4th & 12 at CHSO 30, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:09CHSO 4th & 7 at CHSO 33, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:56MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 33, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:53MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 41, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:37CHSO 4th & 8 at CHSO 33, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:51CHSO 4th & 6 at CHSO 44, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:02MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:35MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:24MSST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:37MSST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:42MSST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:58MSST Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4995% → 95%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
94.5%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+62
94.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 62 yds to the ChaSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:006% → 6%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
94.4%
Shane Bucenell run for 2 yds to the ChaSo 25Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
94.3%
Chanin Hamilton run for 2 yds to the ChaSo 27Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+5
94.3%
Shane Bucenell pass complete to Chanin Hamilton for 5 yds Chanin Hamilton fumbled, recovered by ChaSoSimilar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
94.2%
Kyle Reighard punt for 46 yds, downed at the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3MISSED FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 4:4194% → 94%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
94.2%
Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
94.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+12
94.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 12 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
94.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+15
94.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jesse Jackson for 15 yds to the ChaSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
94.1%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the ChaSo 40Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+1
94.0%
Deddrick Thomas run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 39Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
93.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+7
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the ChaSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
93.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 15 yds to the ChaSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
93.8%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 16Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+1
93.8%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 15Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
93.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the ChaSo 15Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
93.5%
Tucker Day 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 2:027% → 7%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
93.3%
Chanin Hamilton run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 21Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
93.3%
Ronnie Harris run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 22Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
93.3%
Shane Bucenell sacked by Jeffery Simmons for a loss of 7 yards to the ChaSo 15Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 15
OWN 15
-5
93.2%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, Delay of Game (Kyle Reighard) to the ChaSo 10Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
93.2%
Kyle Reighard punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ChaSo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:5293% → 94%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
93.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 19 yds to the ChaSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
93.3%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ChaSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
93.2%
Dontavian Lee run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 8Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 8 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 6SF
2 plays · -16 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
93.9%
Shane Bucenell run for a loss of 16 yards for a SAFETY Shane Bucenell fumbled, recovered by ChaSo Chanin Hamilton for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:2694% → 96%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
94.4%
Kylin Hill run for 19 yds to the ChaSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
94.4%
Kylin Hill run for 8 yds to the ChaSo 13Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+7
94.4%
Kylin Hill run for 7 yds to the ChaSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
94.4%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the ChaSo 7Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
94.4%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the ChaSo 2Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.2%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:264% → 4%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.8%
Ronnie Harris run for 5 yds to the ChaSo 30Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-8
95.8%
Chanin Hamilton run for a loss of 8 yards to the ChaSo 22Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
96.0%
Shane Bucenell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+4
96.1%
Kyle Reighard punt for 36 yds , Gabe Myles returns for 4 yds to the MisSt 46 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3697% → 97%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
96.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+8
96.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 8 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
96.6%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
96.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Reginald Todd for 5 yds to the ChaSo 48Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
96.8%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the ChaSo 46Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+1
96.8%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 45Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
96.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by James Allen at the ChaSo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:004% → 4%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
96.2%
Ronnie Harris run for 4 yds to the ChaSo 15Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+1
96.2%
Ronnie Harris run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 16Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+6
96.4%
Chanin Hamilton run for 6 yds to the ChaSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
96.4%
Chanin Hamilton run for a loss of 3 yards to the ChaSo 19Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 13
OWN 19
0
96.5%
Shane Bucenell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+7
96.5%
Shane Bucenell pass complete to Travay Hatten for 7 yds Travay Hatten fumbled, recovered by ChaSoSimilar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+19
96.5%
Kyle Reighard punt for 49 yds , Gabe Myles returns for 19 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:5197% → 97%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
97.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+11
97.2%
Aeris Williams run for 11 yds to the ChaSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+24
97.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 24 yds to the ChaSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
97.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the ChaSo 23Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
97.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
97.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
97.1%
Tucker Day 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
97.6%
Ronnie Harris run for 5 yds to the ChaSo 24Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+2
97.5%
Ronnie Harris run for 2 yds to the ChaSo 26Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-5
97.6%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, False Start (Caleb Brannon) to the ChaSo 21Similar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
97.8%
Shane Bucenell pass incomplete to Saire DavisSimilar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+40
97.8%
Kyle Reighard punt for 40 yds , Gabe Myles returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3998% → 98%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
97.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
97.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
97.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 59 yds, downed at the ChaSo 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 14SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:152% → 1%
Q2 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
98.1%
Noah Shuler run for no gain to the ChaSo 1Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 1
-1
99.4%
Noah Shuler run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 0:5699% → 99%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the ChaSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
98.9%
Aeris Williams run for 15 yds to the ChaSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
98.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 24 yds to the ChaSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
98.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Stewart Reese) to the ChaSo 10Similar
Q2 2:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 10 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Shane Bucenell run for no gain to the ChaSo 25Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.3%
Shane Bucenell pass complete to Geoffrey Wall for 3 yds to the ChaSo 28Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.3%
Shane Bucenell run for 4 yds to the ChaSo 32Similar
Q2 1:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Kyle Reighard punt for 54 yds, downed at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1799% → 99%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
99.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
99.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by James Allen at the ChaSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:321% → 1%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.3%
Chanin Hamilton run for 4 yds to the ChaSo 46Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+2
99.3%
Chanin Hamilton run for 2 yds to the ChaSo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:581% → 1%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Ronnie Harris run for no gain to the ChaSo 25Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.4%
Geoffrey Wall run for 7 yds to the ChaSo 32Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
99.5%
Chanin Hamilton run for a loss of 1 yard to the ChaSo 31Similar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Kyle Reighard punt for 47 yds, downed at the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.5%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
99.6%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+22
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 22 yds to the ChaSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the ChaSo 45Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 11 yds to the ChaSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.7%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the ChaSo 26Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+12
99.7%
Aeris Williams run for 12 yds to the ChaSo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 5 yds to the ChaSo 9Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+6
99.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 6 yds to the ChaSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
99.8%
Shane Bucenell pass incomplete to Kenny DinkinsSimilar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
99.8%
Chanin Hamilton run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 10Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Shane Bucenell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 9
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Kyle Reighard punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:33100% → 100%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.8%
Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 7:02
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+13
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 13 yds to the ChaSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for 2 yds to the ChaSo 40Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+12
99.8%
Nick Gibson run for 12 yds to the ChaSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-1
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ChaSo 29Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-1
99.8%
Keytaon Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ChaSo 30Similar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+47
99.8%
Tucker Day 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
99.9%
London Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ChaSo 28Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+4
99.9%
London Johnson run for 4 yds to the ChaSo 32Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+1
99.9%
Ellijah Henry run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 33Similar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Kyle Reighard punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Reginald ToddSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+7
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 40 yds, fair catch by James Allen at the ChaSo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -22 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
London Johnson run for 3 yds to the ChaSo 30Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Noah Shuler run for no gain to the ChaSo 30Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-25
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 25 yards to the ChaSo 5Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 32
OWN 5
0
99.9%
Kyle Reighard punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:06100% → 100%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
99.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dareuan Parker) to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+4
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Nick Gibson for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+11
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Reginald Todd for 11 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-5
99.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Evans Wilkerson) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 28 yds, downed at the ChaSo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
99.9%
London Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ChaSo 29Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Terrance Wilson run for 3 yds to the ChaSo 32Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+1
100.0%
Terrance Wilson run for 1 yd to the ChaSo 33Similar
Q4 9:37
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Kyle Reighard punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:32100% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 13 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for no gain to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Kylin Hill run for 13 yds to the MISSSTATE 41 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 9 yds to the ChaSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
99.9%
Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the ChaSo 35Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+8
100.0%
Nick Gibson run for 8 yds to the ChaSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 16 yds to the ChaSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
100.0%
Keytaon Thompson pass complete to Jamal Couch for 11 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CHSODrive 29PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:590% → 0%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
100.0%
Robert Mitchell run for 8 yds to the ChaSo 33Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
100.0%
CHARLESTON SOU Penalty, False Start (Nick Tononi) to the ChaSo 28Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
100.0%
Adam Allen run for 5 yds to the ChaSo 33Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
100.0%
Robert Mitchell run for 7 yds to the ChaSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Adam Allen run for 3 yds to the ChaSo 43Similar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-4
100.0%
Robert Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the ChaSo 39Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
Terrance Wilson run for 5 yds to the ChaSo 44Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Kyle Reighard punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
100.0%
Alec Murphy run for 3 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+4
100.0%
Bennie Braswell III run for 4 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+6
100.0%
Alec Murphy run for 6 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:24
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)
+1.8
SAFETY · Q2 3:54
Noah Shuler run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY
+1.3
TD · Q1 3:35
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 8 yds for a TD, (Tucker Day KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com