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USA

South Alabama 27 at Ole Miss 47

MISS
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:57 · Corliss Waitman punt for 47 yds , A.J. Brown returns for 2 yds to the Miss 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+23.6Home team on offense+7.5Score differential+3.1Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:09: Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 30 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +7.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:27: Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 71 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich PAT MISSED) — MISS win probability +5.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:07: A.J. Brown 77 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick) — MISS win probability +5.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:59: Corliss Waitman kickoff for 62 yds , Jaylon Jones return for 97 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +6.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:24: Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 14 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:29USA 4th & 6 at USA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52USA 4th & 28 at USA 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:15MISS 4th & 2 at USA 2, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:30USA 4th & 1 at MISS 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:35USA 4th & 3 at MISS 3, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.0%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:32MISS 4th & 5 at USA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    77.6%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:57USA 4th & 4 at USA 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:37USA 4th & 12 at USA 38, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:15MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 13, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:11USA 4th & 4 at MISS 4, down 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.4%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:56USA 4th & 16 at USA 19, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:53USA 4th & 4 at MISS 39, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:12MISS 4th & 8 at USA 28, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:02MISS 4th & 1 at USA 47, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 11:00MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:09USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:27MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:07MISS Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:59MISS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:24MISS Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:41MISS Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:42USA Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:04USA Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:138% → 9%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
91.7%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 21Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+8
91.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 8 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.5%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Andrew ReinkemeyerSimilar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
91.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 54 yds , A.J. Brown returns for 5 yds to the Miss 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:1691% → 91%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
91.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 16 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.4%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+18
91.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 18 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
91.3%
Shea Patterson run for 9 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
91.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 3 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
91.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+25
91.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 25 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
91.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 2 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.4%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 5 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 1:419% → 9%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.0%
Cole Garvin run for no gain to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-15
91.1%
Cole Garvin sacked by A.J. Moore for a loss of 15 yards to the SAlab 12Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 23
OWN 12
-5
91.1%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 7Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 28
OWN 7
0
91.1%
Corliss Waitman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by A.J. Brown at the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 6:1991% → 90%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
91.1%
OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Javon Patterson) to the Miss 45Similar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+4
90.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 4 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 16
OWN 49
+13
90.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 13 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+8
90.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 8 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
90.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+7
90.9%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
90.8%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 11Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
90.8%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 1 yd to the SAlab 10Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 2
OPP 10
-5
90.6%
OLE MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+11
90.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D'Vaughn Pennamon for 11 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
90.6%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-11
90.5%
Shea Patterson sacked by Jeremy Reaves for a loss of 11 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+12
90.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 12 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
90.1%
Gary Wunderlich 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FG
20 plays · 95 yds · 9:2510% → 13%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
90.2%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+18
90.1%
Tra Minter run for 18 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 13 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
89.6%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
50
+4
89.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 4 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+6
89.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
89.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
89.1%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the Miss 32Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+1
89.0%
Cole Garvin run for 1 yd to the Miss 31Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
89.1%
Cole Garvin run for 2 yds to the Miss 29 Cole Garvin fumbled, forced by Willie Hibbler, recovered by SAlab Cole Garvin for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
88.4%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+7
88.2%
Tra Minter run for 7 yds to the Miss 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
88.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the Miss 11Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
88.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 3 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+7
88.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Denzel Foster for 7 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
87.9%
Cole Garvin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 2Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
87.7%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 3Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.1%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Maaseiah FrancisSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
87.4%
Gavin Patterson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:4688% → 89%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.4%
Jordan Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
88.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 12 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
88.6%
Jordan Wilkins run for no gain to the Miss 40 Jordan Wilkins fumbled, recovered by SAlab Zach BefortSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:5513% → 21%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
86.6%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+8
86.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 8 yds to the Miss 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
78.8%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 30 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 4:2183% → 83%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
82.7%
Jordan Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
82.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 2 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+6
81.8%
Jordan Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Miss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
82.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Ty Quick for 2 yds to the Miss 36Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+9
81.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 9 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
82.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 13 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
83.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 14 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
83.4%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 11 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
83.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 4 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
83.0%
Shea Patterson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 12Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 5
OPP 12
0
81.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
82.7%
Gary Wunderlich 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:2219% → 18%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
80.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-1
81.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1983% → 88%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.0%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+71
88.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 71 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5813% → 12%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Maaseiah Francis for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
87.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
87.3%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
87.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 47 yds , A.J. Brown returns for 2 yds to the Miss 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:3988% → 93%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
87.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 23Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
87.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to DaMarkus LodgeSimilar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+77
92.7%
A.J. Brown 77 Yd pass from Shea Patterson (Gary Wunderlich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:238% → 7%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.2%
OLE MISS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Myles Hartsfield) to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
91.7%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
92.5%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Tra MinterSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 12
OWN 38
0
93.2%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q3 10:37
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
93.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by A.J. Brown at the Miss 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5394% → 94%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
93.9%
Jordan Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
94.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Jordan Wilkins for 2 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 4
OWN 20
-7
93.8%
Shea Patterson sacked by Finesse Middleton for a loss of 7 yards to the Miss 13 OLE MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Shea Patterson) to the Miss 13Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
93.7%
Will Gleeson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Sam Harris at the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:187% → 8%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
92.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+6
92.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Andrew Reinkemeyer for 6 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
92.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 14 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
92.1%
Tra Minter run for 16 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
91.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 12 yds to the Miss 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.9%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the Miss 4Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.9%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the Miss 4Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
92.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Maaseiah FrancisSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+20
91.8%
Gavin Patterson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:562% → 2%
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-12
97.9%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Noah Fisher) to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+6
98.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 6 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
98.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by A.J. Brown at the Miss 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:1898% → 100%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
98.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 18 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
98.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 12 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
98.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 7 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+13
98.5%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 13 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to DaMarkus Lodge for 14 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:240% → 0%
Q3 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sam Harris for 16 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+10
99.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 10 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
99.9%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Miss 48Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+9
99.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 9 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Maaseiah FrancisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
99.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Miss 34Similar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+13
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 13 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to D.K. Metcalf for 1 yd to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 3 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+44
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 44 yds to the SAlab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
100.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 12 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
100.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
50
+14
100.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Sa'Mory Collier for 14 yds to the Miss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
100.0%
Deonta Moore run for 3 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+10
100.0%
Cole Garvin run for 10 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
100.0%
Deonta Moore run for 9 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Cole Garvin run for 14 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
99.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+7
99.9%
Eric Swinney run for 7 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Eric Swinney run for no gain to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to D.K. MetcalfSimilar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
99.9%
Gary Wunderlich 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:050% → 1%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Tra MinterSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+19
100.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Andrew Reinkemeyer for 19 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
100.0%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+17
100.0%
Tra Minter run for 17 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
100.0%
Denzel Foster run for 4 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+6
100.0%
Cole Garvin run for 6 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
100.0%
Denzel Foster run for 21 yds to the Miss 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.3%
Cole Garvin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:38100% → 100%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
99.5%
Eric Swinney run for 6 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+9
99.6%
Eric Swinney run for 9 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.6%
Eric Swinney run for 5 yds to the Miss 49Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
99.7%
D.K. Buford run for 2 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
99.7%
D.K. Buford run for 2 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
99.7%
Eric Swinney run for 2 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:09
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 30 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q3 4:59
Corliss Waitman kickoff for 62 yds , Jaylon Jones return for 97 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+6
TD · Q3 14:27
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 71 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich PAT MISSED)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com