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UK

Kentucky 24 at Southern Miss 17

USM
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:54 · Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior−18.4Home team on offense−7.8Garbage-time factor−2.0Score differential−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:21: Parker Shaunfield 22 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +5.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:40: Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 42 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — USM win probability +14.3 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. FG · Q3 2:03: Austin MacGinnis 41 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +6.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q3 0:49: Kwadra Griggs run for a loss of 5 yards Kwadra Griggs fumbled, forced by Darius West, recovered by Kent Denzil Ware , return for 20 yds, (Austin MacGinnis KICK) — UK win probability +14.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:42: Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 26 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +14.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UK 4th & 13 at UK 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:26USM 4th & 12 at USM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:36USM 4th & 5 at USM 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:50UK 4th & 7 at USM 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:21USM 4th & 4 at USM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:07UK 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:38USM 4th & 1 at USM 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.4%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:21USM 4th & 5 at UK 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:54USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.8%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:54USM 4th & 9 at UK 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    23.6%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:24UK 4th & 12 at USM 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 17 at USM 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:41UK 4th & 14 at UK 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:36UK 4th & 2 at UK 38, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:37USM 4th & 5 at UK 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−2.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:03UK 4th & 8 at USM 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−11.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:42UK 4th & 7 at UK 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.6%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:44UK 4th & 10 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:09USM 4th & 7 at UK 45, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−2.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:48UK 4th & 3 at UK 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−0.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:37USM 4th & 20 at USM 1, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 14:54UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:01UK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:40USM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:42USM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
22.8%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Kayaune Ross for 8 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-11
22.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
22.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
22.8%
Matt Panton punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
23.6%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 12
OWN 32
0
23.6%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
23.5%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
23.5%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, downed at the Kent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:4476% → 76%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
24.0%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
24.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+8
24.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 8 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+59
24.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 59 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 3 Benny Snell Jr. fumbled, forced by Rod Crayton, recovered by SoMis Tarvarius MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
25.1%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+3
25.1%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+2
25.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 2 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
24.9%
Briggs Bourgeois punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1175% → 74%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
25.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 2
OPP 44
0
25.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-5
25.5%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
26.4%
Matt Panton punt for 48 yds, downed at the SoMis 1Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
25.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+24
26.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 24 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.5%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.5%
Jaylond Adams run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
26.2%
Keon Howard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
26.2%
Zac Everett punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
27.4%
Sihiem King run for no gain to the Kent 27Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+14
27.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 14 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
26.9%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
26.8%
Sihiem King run for 2 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
26.9%
Sihiem King run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 1
50
0
27.2%
Matt Panton punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
29.6%
T'Rod Daniels run for 1 yd to the SoMis 21Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
29.5%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-7
29.0%
Keon Howard sacked by Josh Allen for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 14 Keon Howard fumbled, recovered by Kent Denzil Ware , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 1:1673% → 76%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
27.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
27.4%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
24.1%
Stephen Johnson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FG
18 plays · 82 yds · 6:2925% → 31%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
25.0%
Ito Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+7
25.1%
Keon Howard run for 7 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
25.3%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
25.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 3 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+5
26.0%
Keon Howard run for 5 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
26.5%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
27.0%
Keon Howard pass complete to Korey Robertson for 5 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
27.0%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
26.7%
Keon Howard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+47
27.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 47 yds to the SOUMISS 5 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
28.3%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
28.3%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Kent 5Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
27.6%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 1
OWN 0
0
25.0%
PENALTY UK unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY USM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
30.9%
Parker Shaunfield 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:0973% → 79%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
27.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 10 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
26.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Clevan Thomas for 4 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+23
21.0%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 23 yds for a TD, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Quez Watkins for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
23.8%
T'Rod Daniels run for 1 yd to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
23.4%
Keon Howard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
23.4%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
24.1%
Keon Howard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
24.5%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+10
24.2%
HOWARD, Keon sideline pass incomplete to WATKINS, Quez, PENALTY UK holding (Derrick Baity) 10 yards to the UK47, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
25.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
24.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+1
24.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Ito Smith for 1 yd to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
23.8%
Briggs Bourgeois punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:1979% → 81%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
21.2%
Benny Snell rush up middle for 5 yards to the UK42 (BOOTHE, R.;APPLEWHITE, J.), PENALTY USM offside defense (RILEY, Draper) 5 yards to the UK42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 5
OWN 42
-1
20.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 41Similar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+21
20.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Charles Walker for 21 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
20.2%
Stephen Johnson sacked by Sherrod Ruff for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 46 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 18
OPP 46
0
20.7%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete, broken up by Curtis MikellSimilar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 18
OPP 46
+6
21.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 6 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
18.9%
Matt Panton punt for 39 yds, downed at the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
20.3%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.1%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
21.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Korey Robertson, broken up by Garrett JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
20.4%
Kwadra Griggs sacked by Denzil Ware for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 18 Kwadra Griggs fumbled, recovered by SoMis Ito Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
19.8%
Zac Everett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
20.0%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Kayaune RossSimilar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
20.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 44Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
20.5%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Charles WalkerSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 9
OWN 44
-5
21.3%
KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
21.7%
Matt Panton punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:1221% → 37%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+24
20.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 9 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Courtney Love) to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
21.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
21.6%
Kwadra Griggs run for 3 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
21.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
50
+8
22.7%
Kwadra Griggs run for 8 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+42
37.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 42 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
31.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 1
OPP 0
0
28.2%
Sihiem King run for no gain to the Kent 39 KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Kent 39Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-1
30.2%
Sihiem King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
32.5%
Matt Panton punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
34.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+21
34.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
50
-2
37.6%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+2
35.4%
Kwadra Griggs run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 10
50
+5
34.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 5
OPP 45
-1
35.2%
Briggs Bourgeois run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20FG
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:2770% → 77%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
29.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 15 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
29.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
27.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
27.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+5
28.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 21
-2
29.0%
Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
23.0%
Austin MacGinnis 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1427% → 13%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.6%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
27.1%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 8 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
12.5%
Kwadra Griggs run for a loss of 5 yards Kwadra Griggs fumbled, forced by Darius West, recovered by Kent Denzil Ware , return for 20 yds, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:0712% → 27%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
11.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
12.5%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
12.5%
Kwadra Griggs run for no gain to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
11.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 8 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+14
13.2%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 14 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
13.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Isaiah JonesSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
13.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Isaiah Jones for 9 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
14.1%
Ito Smith run for 4 yds to the Kent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
14.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 13 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
14.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Chase WhiteheadSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-5
14.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Kent 21Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 15
OPP 21
-5
12.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Arvin Fletcher) to the Kent 26Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+26
27.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 26 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.9%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 8 yds to the Kent 33Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
18.9%
Sihiem King run for 1 yd to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
19.2%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
19.0%
Sihiem King rush left for loss of 1 yard to the UK34 (MOORE, T.), PENALTY UK holding (Landon Young) 10 yards to the UK25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
20.6%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Greg Hart, broken up by Darian YanceySimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
20.9%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+13
21.6%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 13 yds to the Kent 38Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
20.1%
Matt Panton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Allenzae Staggers at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to T'Rod DanielsSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.2%
T'Rod Daniels run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+19
20.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for 19 yds Ito Smith fumbled, forced by Chris Westry, recovered by Kent Courtney Love , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 83%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
50
+5
14.1%
Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
14.1%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-5
14.5%
Stephen Johnson sideline pass incomplete to Greg Hart (DOUGLAS, Kelsey), PENALTY UK false start 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 10
50
0
14.8%
Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 10
50
0
17.0%
Matt Panton punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 1:3720% → 19%
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
19.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Jay'Shawn WashingtonSimilar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+10
19.1%
Kwadra Griggs run for 10 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+30
19.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Quez Watkins for 30 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
24.8%
Ito Smith run for 3 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
24.7%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
24.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
18.9%
Zac Everett punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 27PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:1487% → 95%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
13.3%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Greg Hart) to the Kent 8Similar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+23
13.5%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Draper Riley) to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
12.7%
Sihiem King run for 3 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
12.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 35Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-5
13.4%
KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Landon Young) to the Kent 30Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+10
14.2%
Stephen Johnson CU pass incomplete to Charles Walker, PENALTY USM holding (DOUGLAS, Kelsey) 10 yards to the UK40, 1ST DOWN UK, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
11.7%
Benny Snell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
11.8%
Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+4
6.6%
Stephen Johnson run for 4 yds to the Kent 47Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+7
5.5%
Matt Panton punt for 42 yds , Allenzae Staggers returns for 7 yds to the SOUMISS 46 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-7
10.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-7 Yards) to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 17
OWN 4
0
10.5%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Ito SmithSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 17
OWN 4
-3
10.3%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Ito Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 20
OWN 1
0
10.0%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Allenzae StaggersSimilar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 20
OWN 1
0
9.6%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.7%
TEAM run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:42
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 26 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+14.8
FUMBLE · Q3 0:49
Kwadra Griggs run for a loss of 5 yards Kwadra Griggs fumbled, forced by Darius West, recovered by Kent Denzil Ware , return for 20 yds, (Austin MacGinnis KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q3 10:40
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Korey Robertson for 42 yds for a TD, (Parker Shaunfield KICK) KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
+14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com