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FSU

Florida State 7 at Alabama 24

ALA
2017 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2017 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:17 · TEAM punt blocked by Damien Harris recovered by Dylan Moses
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior+7.6Home team on offense+3.2Score differential+0.8Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:41: Auden Tate 3 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:28: Calvin Ridley 53 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Andy Pappanastos Kick) — ALA win probability +5.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:54: Andy Pappanastos 25 Yd Field Goal — ALA win probability +7.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:41: Damien Harris 11 Yd Run (Jalen Hurts Pass to Calvin Ridley for Two-Point Conversion) — ALA win probability +16.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:50: Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the FlaSt 42 — ALA win probability +4.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 13FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:19ALA 4th & 2 at FSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:57ALA 4th & 5 at FSU 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48FSU 4th & 2 at ALA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:30ALA 4th & 10 at FSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:21FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:15ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:38FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:45ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 22, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:06FSU 4th & 15 at ALA 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:01ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−3.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 10 at ALA 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:04FSU 4th & 24 at ALA 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−3.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:23ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:17FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:54ALA 4th & 7 at FSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−12.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:13ALA 4th & 1 at FSU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−2.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−2.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:28ALA 4th & 3 at FSU 24, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−5.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:48ALA 4th & 13 at FSU 34, up 14
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:25ALA 4th & 4 at FSU 15, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−3.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:29FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:36ALA 4th & 5 at FSU 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:41FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:28ALA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:41ALA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:5573% → 73%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
73.1%
Damien Harris run for 34 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
73.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
73.1%
Damien Harris run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+3
73.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+3
72.9%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
73.0%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
73.0%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+4
72.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Bo Scarbrough for 4 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+42
72.6%
Andy Pappanastos 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:0428% → 29%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
72.0%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
71.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to George Campbell for 21 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
71.5%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
71.1%
Keith Gavin run for 6 yds to the Alab 34Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
71.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-4
71.5%
Deondre Francois sacked by Shaun Dion Hamilton for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:0272% → 72%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
72.1%
Damien Harris run for 1 yd to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-1
72.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Jalen Hurts for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 38Similar
Q1 6:53
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+21
71.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 21 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
72.5%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+20
72.4%
Jalen Hurts run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
72.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for no gain to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
72.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
72.2%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the FlaSt 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Alab Jalen HurtsSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+35
72.4%
Andy Pappanastos 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 5:3628% → 34%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
72.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 5 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
72.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+11
73.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 11 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+38
72.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 38 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
71.2%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the Alab 33Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+10
71.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 10 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
70.9%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the Alab 23Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
70.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 4 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+15
71.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 15 yds to the Alab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
70.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the Alab 3Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.7%
Auden Tate 3 Yd pass from Deondre Francois (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:5568% → 73%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
67.5%
Najee Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
67.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 5 yds to the Alab 23Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+6
67.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 6 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+18
67.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 18 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
72.8%
Calvin Ridley 53 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Andy Pappanastos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0128% → 27%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete, broken up by Joshua FrazierSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
72.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete, broken up by Joshua FrazierSimilar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
73.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5972% → 71%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
71.5%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
71.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Jerry JeudySimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
70.5%
JK Scott punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3228% → 27%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
72.2%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
71.1%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
71.2%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
71.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 6:43
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
71.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q2 6:38
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
72.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4872% → 70%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
71.8%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 18
-1
71.7%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Fredrick Jones and Brandon Barrett for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+5
71.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
70.4%
JK Scott punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2831% → 27%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
69.1%
George Campbell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 14
OPP 35
0
70.1%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 14
OPP 35
-1
71.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 15
OPP 36
0
72.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5872% → 69%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
71.6%
Najee Harris run for 2 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
71.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 8
OWN 26
-10
70.4%
Hurts, Jalen pass complete to Jeudy, Jerry for 24 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Cotton, Lester) 10 yards to the ALABAMA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 18
OWN 16
+1
69.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
68.9%
JK Scott punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Tarvarus McFadden at the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 0:5528% → 28%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
71.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 11 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
70.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 24 yds to the Alab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
67.1%
Francois, Deondre pass incomplete to Tate, Auden, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Averett, Anthony) 15 yards to the ALABAMA20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
67.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Keith Gavin, broken up by Keith HolcombeSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
67.1%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
69.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan Murray, broken up by Tony BrownSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
71.8%
Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Minkah Fitzpatrick Rashaan Evans return for 17 yds to the Alab 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:5031% → 30%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.3%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
69.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 15 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
67.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 12 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
65.9%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
65.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Cam Akers for 11 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
64.6%
Deondre Francois run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 35Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 11
OPP 35
-3
64.5%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 38Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 14
OPP 38
-10
67.9%
Deondre Francois sacked by Raekwon Davis for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 24
OPP 48
0
69.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3170% → 69%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
70.2%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
70.0%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+11
69.2%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 11 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
71.1%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Ridley, Calvin, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Marshall, Trey) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
73.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
72.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 7
50
-11
72.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for a loss of 11 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+9
69.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
69.2%
JK Scott punt for 45 yds, downed at the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0031% → 29%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
68.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+4
68.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
67.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jacques Patrick for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
66.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to George CampbellSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
70.7%
TEAM punt blocked by Damien Harris recovered by Dylan MosesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:1874% → 80%
Q3 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
73.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-7
73.8%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Josh Sweat for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+4
72.3%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
79.5%
Andy Pappanastos 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.6%
Damien Harris 11 Yd Run (Jalen Hurts Pass to Calvin Ridley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3510% → 10%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.9%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
89.6%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Levi Wallace return for no gain to the FlaSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19MISSED FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:2294% → 94%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
93.7%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
93.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
93.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 5 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
93.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
94.2%
Bo Scarbrough run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
94.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
94.3%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Henry Ruggs IIISimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+41
93.9%
Andy Pappanastos 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
91.8%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Mack Wilson return for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2995% → 95%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.7%
Najee Harris run for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-3
94.9%
Jalen Hurts run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 13
OPP 34
0
94.8%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin RidleySimilar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 13
OPP 34
0
95.0%
JK Scott punt for 28 yds, downed at the FlaSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:095% → 5%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
94.7%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 12
OWN 4
+4
95.1%
Deondre Francois run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
95.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden Tate, broken up by Anthony AverettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:5296% → 98%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
96.3%
Bo Scarbrough run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+2
96.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
96.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+1
96.8%
Bo Scarbrough run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
97.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
97.6%
Andy Pappanastos 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:453% → 3%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Keith Gavin for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
97.1%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden Tate, broken up by Levi WallaceSimilar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-6
97.2%
Deondre Francois sacked by Ronnie Harrison for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 35 yds, downed at the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:4498% → 99%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
98.0%
Damien Harris run for 9 yds to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
98.4%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.4%
Bo Scarbrough run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
98.6%
Bo Scarbrough run for no gain to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+2
98.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
98.8%
JK Scott punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tarvarus McFadden at the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:042% → 2%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
98.3%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+6
98.2%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+6
98.3%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.2%
ALABAMA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:41
Damien Harris 11 Yd Run (Jalen Hurts Pass to Calvin Ridley for Two-Point Conversion)
+16.2
FG · Q3 1:54
Andy Pappanastos 25 Yd Field Goal
+7.2
TD · Q2 11:28
Calvin Ridley 53 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Andy Pappanastos Kick)
+5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com