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USA

South Alabama 21 at Air Force 45

AF
2016 · Postseason · Dec 30, 2016 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:02 · Brandon McKee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior+11.3Home team on offense+15.7Score differential+5.2Garbage-time factor+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:41: Dallas Davis 4 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick) — USA win probability +13.4 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:49: Ronald Cleveland 14 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +10.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:25: Jacobi Owens 1 Yd Run , (Arion Worthman pass to Jalen Robinette for Two-Point Conversion) — AF win probability +14.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:42: Jalen Robinette 75 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick) — AF win probability +13.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:35: Tyler Williams 6 Yd Run, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +6.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 9:05AF 4th & 7 at USA 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:07AF 4th & 13 at USA 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:40AF 4th & 2 at AF 12, down 11
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:34AF 4th & 4 at USA 4, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−7.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:32USA 4th & 21 at USA 27, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−5.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:21USA 4th & 9 at USA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:02USA 4th & 3 at USA 19, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:03AF 4th & 5 at USA 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:50USA 4th & 21 at USA 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:50AF 4th & 3 at USA 38, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:47USA 4th & 13 at USA 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:49USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:08USA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:41USA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:49AF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:25AF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:42AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:35AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:12AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
81.3%
Josh Magee 75 Yd pass from Dallas Davis (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:3081% → 79%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.2%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+26
80.9%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Tyler Williams for 26 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
80.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+8
80.6%
Tyler Williams run for 8 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
80.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Timothy McVey for 7 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-1
80.1%
D.J. Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+7
79.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the SAlab 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
79.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the SAlab 8Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
79.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd to the SAlab 7Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
78.8%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
79.3%
Luke Strebel 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5121% → 25%
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.0%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
78.9%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 13 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.5%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
78.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Tyrone WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+51
78.3%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Chris Lewis for 51 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
77.5%
Dallas Davis run for 9 yds to the AFA 2Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
75.3%
Dami Ayoola 2 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:5576% → 71%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
75.8%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
75.4%
Arion Worthman run for 11 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
75.5%
Arion Worthman sacked by Chason Milner for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+2
74.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+20
73.5%
Tyler Williams run for 20 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
73.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
73.2%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-7
72.5%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
71.1%
Steve Brosy punt for 21 yds, downed at the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:5728% → 31%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
71.7%
Dallas Davis run for no gain to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+14
70.6%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 14 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.9%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+24
69.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Tyrone Williams for 24 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+34
68.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 34 yds to the AFA 4 Xavier Johnson fumbled, forced by Weston Steelhammer, recovered by AFA Grant RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2069% → 67%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
69.3%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 2
OWN 12
0
68.7%
Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 2
OWN 12
0
67.8%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the AFA 12Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 2
OWN 12
+5
67.1%
Steve Brosy punt for 52 yds, Dami Ayoola returns for 5 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:5334% → 49%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
66.5%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Chris LewisSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
66.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Noah Fisher) to the SAlab 36Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+37
66.8%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 37 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
65.4%
Dami Ayoola run for 13 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
64.9%
Dami Ayoola run for 10 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
51.5%
Dallas Davis 4 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:5157% → 57%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
56.7%
Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+49
55.9%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 49 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
58.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (Jake Barnhorst) to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 15
OPP 28
-5
57.6%
Worthman, Arion pass complete to Robinette, Jalen for 28 yards to the SOUTHALA0, PENALTY AIRFORCE, ineligible downfield on pass (Wilson, Jackson) 5 yards to the SOUTHALA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+29
57.4%
Timothy McVey run for 29 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
56.4%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
56.5%
Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
54.7%
Tyler Williams run for 1 yd to the SAlab 4Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
56.9%
Luke Strebel 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:5646% → 51%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Kevin Kutchera, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
53.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Kevin Kutchera for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
52.6%
Dallas Davis run for 4 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
50.0%
Dami Ayoola run for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
49.0%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q2 3:59
3RD & 15
OWN 33
-6
49.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Dami Ayoola for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 21
OWN 27
0
48.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:1354% → 63%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
53.9%
Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+3
53.9%
Ronald Cleveland run for 3 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
52.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Timothy McVey for 10 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
62.5%
Ronald Cleveland 14 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
Q2 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
62.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · -19 yds · 0:4543% → 44%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.7%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
55.6%
Dallas Davis sacked by TEAM for a loss of 22 yards to the SAlab 1 Dallas Davis fumbled, recovered by AFA Santo Coppola , return for 0 yards , return for 5 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:2062% → 76%
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.9%
Arion Worthman run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.4%
Jacobi Owens 1 Yd Run , (Arion Worthman pass to Jalen Robinette for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
69.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
80.7%
Jalen Robinette 75 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5420% → 19%
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
79.8%
Dami Ayoola run for 4 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
79.7%
Dallas Davis run for 7 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
79.3%
Dami Ayoola run for 1 yd to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
79.4%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Jeremy ReavesSimilar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
80.5%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
80.9%
Brandon McKee punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2581% → 92%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
80.6%
Arion Worthman sacked by Devon Earl for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+7
80.2%
Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
79.9%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
80.7%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
82.3%
Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
83.4%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+12
83.6%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Tyler Williams for 12 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+29
83.7%
Arion Worthman run for 29 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
84.8%
Tyler Williams run for 1 yd to the SAlab 7Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
84.8%
Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 0
OPP 4
+2
84.7%
Worthman, Arion pass incomplete, PENALTY SOUTHALA, holding (Dent, Quinton) 2 yards to the SOUTHALA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AIRFORCE.Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 1Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
84.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 6Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
91.6%
Tyler Williams 6 Yd Run, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2811% → 10%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
89.3%
Dami Ayoola run for 6 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 4
OWN 18
0
89.3%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+1
89.6%
Dami Ayoola run for 1 yd to the SAlab 19Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
90.1%
Brandon McKee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jalen Robinette at the AFA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:4792% → 95%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
92.0%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+28
92.3%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Tyler Williams for 28 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
92.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-2
92.6%
Tyler Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+5
93.7%
Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
94.7%
Luke Strebel 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:306% → 5%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
94.5%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 21 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
94.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
94.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Grant Powell) to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 15
OWN 34
0
94.6%
Dallas Davis pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 6:4895% → 99%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
95.2%
Timothy McVey run for 9 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
95.5%
Parker Wilson run for 2 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
95.7%
Arion Worthman sacked by Randy Allen for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+6
95.9%
Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-3
96.3%
Arion Worthman run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 16
OWN 36
+15
96.0%
Brosy, Steve punt 64 yards to the SOUTHALA0, touchback, PENALTY SOUTHALA, roughing the kicker 15 yards to the SOUTHALA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AIRFORCE.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
96.7%
D.J. Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 11
50
+9
96.7%
Tyler Williams run for 9 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
96.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
96.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-1
96.9%
Tyler Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 32, Tyler Williams fumbled, recovered by AFA Arion WorthmanSimilar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+10
96.9%
Worthman, Arion pass incomplete, PENALTY SOUTHALA, holding (Robinson, Neiko) 10 yards to the SOUTHALA22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AIRFORCE.Similar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.1%
Jacobi Owens 22 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:151% → 1%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Dallas Davis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.0%
Dallas Davis pass complete to Josh Magee for 7 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.1%
Dallas Davis run for 4 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Dallas Davis pass incomplete to Gerald EverettSimilar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-11
99.3%
Dallas Davis sacked by Grant Ross for a loss of 11 yards to the SAlab 25Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 52 yds, downed at the AFA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
99.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down, SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Quinton Dent) to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
99.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+8
99.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Jacobi Owens run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+2
99.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 3
OPP 38
-5
99.5%
Arion Worthman sacked by Chason Milner for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:561% → 1%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Kevin KutcheraSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Josh MageeSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-3
99.5%
Cole Garvin run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 41 yds, downed at the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 17Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 12
OWN 17
-1
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 16Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 13
OWN 16
-1
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:25
Jacobi Owens 1 Yd Run , (Arion Worthman pass to Jalen Robinette for Two-Point Conversion)
+14.5
TD · Q2 10:41
Dallas Davis 4 Yd Run (Gavin Patterson Kick)
-13.4
TD · Q3 14:42
Jalen Robinette 75 Yd pass from Arion Worthman (Luke Strebel Kick)
+13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com