Try the model
WIS

Wisconsin 31 at Penn State 38

PSU
2016 · Week 14 · Dec 3, 2016 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:25 · Anthony Lotti punt for 30 yds, downed at the PnSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−25.0Score differential−10.6Garbage-time factor−4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.8Pregame prior+1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:15: Dare Ogunbowale run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK) — WIS win probability +12.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:58: Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 40 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:58: Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +14.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:22: Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +19.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:41: Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 18 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +20.7 pts (now 74%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:27PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:51PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:45WIS 4th & 8 at PSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:46PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:25PSU 4th & 1 at WIS 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.2%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:25WIS 4th & 7 at PSU 40, up 21
    Close callPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:09WIS 4th & 6 at PSU 30, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.6%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:39WIS 4th & 18 at WIS 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−5.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:16WIS 4th & 3 at PSU 5, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%−2.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    33.7%−17.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:52WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−4.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:14PSU 4th & 1 at WIS 6, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.5%−7.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−23.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:01WIS 4th & 1 at PSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−8.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−11.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 23, up 7
    Numbers favored punt by 3.7 ptsWent for it · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%−3.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:27WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:06WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:10PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:15WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:58PSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:58PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:22PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:41PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2152% → 53%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
52.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 7 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
52.4%
Andre Robinson run for no gain to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
52.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
52.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 45 yds , Jazz Peavy returns for no gain to the Wisc 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 7:5548% → 52%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
52.5%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+6
52.6%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Wisc 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
52.6%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
52.6%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the Wisc 35Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
52.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 6 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
52.5%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-3
52.4%
Quintez Cephus run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+15
52.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Manny Bowen) to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
52.4%
Bradrick Shaw run for 5 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+12
52.2%
Bradrick Shaw run for 12 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
52.1%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-2
51.9%
Corey Clement run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-5
52.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (David Edwards) to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+24
52.6%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 24 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
51.9%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.4%
Austin Ramesh run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2350% → 49%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
49.6%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
49.4%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 19Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
48.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
48.5%
Blake Gillikin punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jazz Peavy at the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:3751% → 57%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
48.7%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+67
43.3%
Corey Clement run for 67 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4744% → 50%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
43.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 22 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
45.0%
Andre Robinson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 7
50
+1
44.8%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the Wisc 49Similar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+16
44.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 16 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
50.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 33 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:1252% → 54%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
47.3%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 7 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
46.9%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
46.1%
Bradrick Shaw run for 7 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 3
OWN 46
-2
45.8%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 44Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+9
45.7%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 9 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
45.0%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Austin RameshSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
45.0%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
45.0%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Jazz PeavySimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
46.0%
Anthony Lotti punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Gregg Garrity at the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5547% → 38%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
46.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 8 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+2
46.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 2 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
46.4%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 21Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+10
46.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 10 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+12
37.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards TEAM fumbled, recovered by Wisc Ryan Connelly , return for 12 yds, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4237% → 36%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
36.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 11 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
36.8%
Andre Robinson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
37.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+4
36.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 4 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
36.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saeed BlacknallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:2667% → 80%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
33.5%
Corey Clement run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+14
33.0%
Bart Houston pass complete to Eric Steffes for 14 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
32.5%
Corey Clement run for 11 yds to the PnSt 16 Corey Clement fumbled, forced by Torrence Brown, recovered by Wisc Zander Neuville for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
32.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 9 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
20.3%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 7 yds for a TD, (Andrew Endicott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4624% → 24%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre Thompkins, broken up by Vince BiegelSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
23.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 18 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
24.8%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
24.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 8 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
24.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Wisc 48Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-9
24.1%
Trace McSorley sacked by T.J. Watt for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 43 Trace McSorley fumbled, forced by T.J. Watt, recovered by Wisc T.J. Watt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4881% → 80%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
18.7%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
18.7%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Robert WheelwrightSimilar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
19.1%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Jazz Peavy, broken up by Brandon BellSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
19.9%
Anthony Lotti punt for 30 yds, downed at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 1:2021% → 31%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
20.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 12 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
20.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 23Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+7
21.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+18
21.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 18 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
22.5%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Irvin CharlesSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
22.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Irvin CharlesSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+12
21.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 12 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
31.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 40 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:3172% → 73%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.9%
Jazz Peavy run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
27.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 1 yd to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
28.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to Kyle Penniston for 6 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
26.7%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 5 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:4372% → 76%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.8%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 8 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
26.9%
Corey Clement run for 14 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
25.5%
Bart Houston pass complete to Troy Fumagalli for 19 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
24.0%
Corey Clement run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 12:27
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+4
23.1%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-3
23.0%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
24.1%
Andrew Endicott 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
38.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:0563% → 63%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
37.1%
Bradrick Shaw run for 7 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+6
35.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for 6 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
35.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for 4 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
34.5%
Bart Houston run for 1 yd to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-13
34.9%
Bart Houston sacked by Brandon Bell for a loss of 13 yards to the Wisc 24 Bart Houston fumbled, forced by Brandon Bell, recovered by Wisc Bart Houston , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 18
OWN 24
0
37.0%
Anthony Lotti punt for 39 yds, fair catch by John Reid at the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:1138% → 62%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
38.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 16 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
41.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 14 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
43.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+17
42.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 17 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
42.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Wisc 11Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
42.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the Wisc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
41.9%
Trace McSorley run for 3 yds to the Wisc 1Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:5748% → 59%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
52.1%
Corey Clement run for 9 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
49.7%
Corey Clement run for 5 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
49.7%
Bart Houston pass complete to Corey Clement for 26 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
46.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+20
45.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for 20 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
45.6%
Corey Clement run for 2 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
45.6%
Bart Houston pass incomplete to Troy FumagalliSimilar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+5
47.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 5 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
41.5%
Andrew Endicott 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:2245% → 74%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+38
45.3%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 38 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
50.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 25 yds to the Wisc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
53.3%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Wisc 18Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
74.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 18 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:3534% → 30%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
66.1%
Houston, Bart pass complete to Clement, Corey for 2 yards to the WISCONSIN25, PENALTY WISCONSIN illegal shift 5 yards to the WISCONSIN18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+12
66.5%
Corey Clement run for 12 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+6
64.2%
Corey Clement run for 6 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
65.0%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 34Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-4
67.0%
Bart Houston sacked by Koa Farmer for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 10:32
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+2
69.2%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 2 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 14
OWN 32
+5
69.6%
Anthony Lotti punt for 37 yds , John Reid returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:2972% → 90%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.6%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
73.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Mike GesickiSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+15
70.7%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete, PENALTY WISCONSIN roughing passer (Jacobs, Leon) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
75.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+11
75.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 11 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
78.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+15
81.1%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Hamilton, DaeSean, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Musso, Leo) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
81.1%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 17Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+8
81.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 8 yds to the Wisc 9Similar
Q4 5:47
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
80.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 3 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+24
89.6%
Tyler Davis 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 51 yds · 4:0615% → 13%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.1%
Bart Houston run for 2 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
85.6%
Bart Houston pass complete to Jazz Peavy for 16 yds to the Wisc 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
83.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+10
85.3%
Bart Houston pass complete to Dare Ogunbowale for 10 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
83.4%
Dare Ogunbowale run for 2 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
84.5%
Bart Houston pass complete to Corey Clement for 13 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
81.4%
Bart Houston pass complete to Corey Clement for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
79.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for no gain to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
86.8%
Corey Clement run for no gain to the PnSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · -19 yds · 0:5796% → 96%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
96.2%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 12
OWN 22
+1
96.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
96.2%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 11
OWN 23
-18
95.7%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 18 yards to the PnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:41
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 18 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+20.7
TD · Q3 4:22
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q3 10:58
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saeed Blacknall for 70 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com