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NAVY

Navy 66 at East Carolina 31

ECU
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:56 · Worth Gregory punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 42 , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 6 yds to the Navy 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense−8.6Score differential−4.3Pregame prior−8.6Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:12: Davis Plowman 43 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +4.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:45: Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +6.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 80%).
  3. TD · Q2 6:12: Shawn White run for 41 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:56: Shawn White run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +9.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:04: Calvin Cass Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:12ECU 4th & 5 at NAVY 26, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−3.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:45ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:12ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:56ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 20, down 11
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:14NAVY 4th & 7 at ECU 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:13ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:15ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 43, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 11:44ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:23NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:16ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:45NAVY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:12NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:56NAVY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:04NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:37NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:40ECU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:24NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 2:59ECU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:13NAVY Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 7:15NAVY Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1635% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
34.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 1 yd to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
34.7%
James Summers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
34.7%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+8
34.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 8 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+9
34.7%
James Summers run for 9 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
37.6%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 40 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 3:2163% → 64%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
37.1%
Dishan Romine run for 7 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+7
37.1%
Will Worth run for 7 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+50
37.1%
Shawn White run for 50 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
36.6%
Darryl Bonner run for 2 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+9
36.6%
Will Worth run for 9 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
36.3%
Will Worth run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:0737% → 45%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
37.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Brandon Bishop for 5 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
37.6%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+20
37.2%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 20 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.1%
Devin Anderson run for no gain to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
38.0%
James Summers run for 6 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+21
37.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 21 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
38.2%
Gardner Minshew run for 4 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+7
38.2%
James Summers run for 7 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
38.2%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the Navy 7Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
38.2%
James Summers run for 1 yd to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
45.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 6 yds for a TD NAVY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:1656% → 52%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
43.9%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+8
43.9%
Will Worth run for 8 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
43.8%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
43.6%
Will Worth run for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+4
47.0%
Toneo Gulley run for 4 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
46.8%
Dishan Romine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+1
47.8%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
48.2%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Darryl BonnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
48.4%
Alex Barta punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:5448% → 53%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
48.1%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 6 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+10
48.4%
Devin Anderson run for 10 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
48.8%
James Summers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
49.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
50
+19
49.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 19 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST down. Zay Jones set the FBS career receptions record on the play (388)Similar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
49.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to James SummersSimilar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
49.7%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 5 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
49.2%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to James SummersSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
53.4%
Davis Plowman 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:2746% → 55%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+47
54.4%
Will Worth pass complete to Tyler Carmona for 47 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
51.8%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+5
51.8%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
51.8%
Myles Swain run for 3 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.9%
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.0%
Gardner Minshew run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
47.8%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
47.1%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by Ted ColburnSimilar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+16
46.4%
Worth Gregory punt for 40 yds , Craig Scott returns for 16 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
2 plays · 49 yds · 0:3754% → 64%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
46.4%
Shawn White run for 8 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+41
36.3%
Shawn White run for 41 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
39.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
39.2%
James Summers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
38.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Jimmy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+15
38.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 49 yds , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 15 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 2:1464% → 73%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+30
36.5%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 30 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
36.1%
Myles Swain run for 7 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+1
36.1%
Will Worth run for 1 yd to the ECaro 11Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+4
36.5%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
27.1%
Shawn White run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
28.8%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+4
28.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 4 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
28.3%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay Jones, broken up by Ted ColburnSimilar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+6
28.0%
Worth Gregory punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 42 , Calvin Cass Jr. returns for 6 yds to the Navy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:0375% → 80%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
25.3%
Will Worth run for 30 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
24.5%
Shawn White run for 13 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
24.5%
Will Worth run for 2 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+6
22.5%
Shawn White run for 6 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
22.0%
Will Worth pass incomplete to Calvin Cass Jr.Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 2
OPP 7
-5
21.9%
MOEHRING, B field goal attempt from 24 GOOD, clock 00:15, PENALTY NAVY delay of game 5 yards to the ECU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
19.6%
Bennett Moehring 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
22.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:5679% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
21.1%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+23
21.0%
Darryl Bonner run for 23 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
19.9%
Myles Swain run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+2
19.9%
Myles Swain run for 2 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+2
20.1%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+5
21.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, offside defense (Demetri McGill) to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
19.7%
Myles Swain run for 2 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+6
19.7%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+5
20.0%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
19.6%
Shawn White run for 4 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
6.8%
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:2793% → 97%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
7.0%
Will Worth pass complete to Jamir Tillman for 36 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.9%
Will Worth run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 0:575% → 9%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
5.4%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Jimmy Williams for 7 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+81
8.9%
James Summers run for 81 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:1693% → 98%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
6.6%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+15
6.4%
Myles Swain run for 15 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
6.3%
Will Worth run for 6 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+7
6.3%
Darryl Bonner run for 7 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
6.3%
Shawn White run for 6 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.1%
Will Worth run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:254% → 5%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
3.9%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 5 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-3
3.8%
James Summers run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+77
5.3%
Gardner Minshew pass complete to Zay Jones for 77 yds for a TD, (Davis Plowman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 6:4697% → 100%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
2.7%
Myles Swain run for 8 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+8
2.6%
Will Worth run for 8 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
2.5%
Myles Swain run for 4 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+12
2.5%
Will Worth run for 12 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
2.5%
Shawn White run for 6 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
1.9%
Will Worth run for 5 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
1.9%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
1.9%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+4
2.0%
Will Worth run for 4 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
1.9%
Myles Swain run for 8 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+8
1.9%
Shawn White run for 8 yds to the ECaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Shawn White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.5%
Gardner Minshew pass incomplete to Zay JonesSimilar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.4%
Devin Anderson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
0.4%
Gardner Minshew run for 5 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
0.5%
Devin Anderson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
0.3%
Zach Abey run for 6 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+1
0.3%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
0.3%
Zach Abey run for 4 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+21
0.3%
Myles Swain run for 21 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Jahmaal Daniel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
0.2%
James Summers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+16
0.2%
Devin Anderson run for 16 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.2%
James Summers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
0.2%
Devin Anderson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+3
0.2%
Devin Anderson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
0.2%
Worth Gregory punt for 35 yds, downed at the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24Uncategorized
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
0.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 6 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
0.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
0.2%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
0.2%
Zach Abey run for 5 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
0.1%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+9
0.1%
Jahmaal Daniel run for 9 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:04
Calvin Cass Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q2 6:12
Shawn White run for 41 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q2 2:56
Shawn White run for 7 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com