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STAN

Stanford 25 at North Carolina 23

UNC
2016 · Postseason · Dec 30, 2016 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:34 · Jake Bailey punt for 56 yds, downed at the NCaro 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Home team on offense−36.2Garbage-time factor−13.8Pregame prior−0.2Score differential−8.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−13.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 6:56: Nick Weiler 37 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +6.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:09: Jordon Brown 5 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick) — UNC win probability +21.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:13: Dallas Lloyd 19 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — STAN win probability +24.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 3:23: Conrad Ukropina 27 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +9.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:25: Bug Howard 2 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — UNC win probability +23.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:14STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:25UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:13STAN 4th & 21 at UNC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−1.3
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:19STAN 4th & 8 at UNC 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:35UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:11UNC 4th & 13 at STAN 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:56UNC 4th & 4 at STAN 20, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−9.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:21STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:52STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 35, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:40UNC 4th & 22 at STAN 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−4.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:23STAN 4th & 10 at UNC 10, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−2.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−13.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:00UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 20, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:34STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 41, up 8
    Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 8:58UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:11STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:09UNC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:13STAN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:25UNC Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    16.2%−13.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3157% → 57%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
42.8%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
43.0%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+9
43.2%
Jake Bailey punt for 46 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:1143% → 47%
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
43.2%
Trubisky, Mitch pass complete to Howard, Bug for 6 yards to the UNC35, PENALTY UNC, holding (Spain, Bentley) 10 yards to the UNC19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+14
43.3%
T.J. Logan run for 14 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+12
43.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 12 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
43.8%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
43.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+15
43.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 15 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
44.4%
Ryan Switzer run for 3 yds to the Stanf 37, NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 17
OPP 47
+15
44.2%
STANFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Stanf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
44.6%
Mitch Trubisky run for 7 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
44.9%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+4
44.9%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
47.3%
Ryan Switzer 19 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4353% → 56%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.6%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
46.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 16 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
46.6%
Bryce Love run for 7 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
46.6%
Michael Rector run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
50
+1
47.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
43.9%
Bryce Love 49 Yd pass from Keller Chryst (Conrad Ukropina Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:3345% → 45%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
45.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 13
OWN 16
-2
45.0%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 15
OWN 14
-2
44.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 12Similar
Q1 4:25
4TH & 17
OWN 12
-4
44.6%
Tom Sheldon punt for 40 yds , Jay Tyler returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5FG
13 plays · 29 yds · 5:0056% → 55%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
44.4%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
44.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+6
44.6%
Keller Chryst run for 6 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
44.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+16
44.1%
Daniel Marx run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST down, NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Andre Smith) to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
43.6%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
43.8%
Keller Chryst run for 8 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+3
44.2%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
43.7%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
43.9%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 15
OPP 21
+1
44.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 20
-7
45.2%
Ryan Burns sacked by Nazair Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 21
OPP 27
+44
44.8%
Conrad Ukropina 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2845% → 47%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Quenton MeeksSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
44.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+13
44.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
50
+1
46.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
46.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 5 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+45
46.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted Dallas Lloyd return for 45 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1158% → 56%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
42.1%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
42.1%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-3
42.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 10:19
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
44.2%
Conrad Ukropina 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3045% → 44%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
45.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 15 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
45.5%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
45.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
44.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to T.J. Logan, broken up by Kevin PalmaSimilar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
43.9%
Tom Sheldon punt for 55 yds, downed at the Stanf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 17 yds · 6:0055% → 54%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
44.8%
Bryce Love run for 11 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
43.3%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+2
43.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+17
43.9%
Ryan Burns pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 17 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
41.8%
Ryan Burns run for 6 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+6
41.7%
Ryan Burns pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 6 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
41.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-10
41.9%
Love, Bryce rush for no gain to the UNC43, PENALTY STANFORD, holding 10 yards to the STANFORD47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 17
OWN 47
-17
43.3%
Ryan Burns sacked by Dajaun Drennon for a loss of 17 yards to the Stanf 30 STANFORD Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ryan Burns) to the Stanf 30Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 34
OWN 30
-5
45.4%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 25Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 39
OWN 25
-2
46.1%
Jake Bailey punt for 56 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:2345% → 44%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
45.0%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
44.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 3 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-5
43.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (R.J. Prince) to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+3
43.6%
Mitch Trubisky run for 3 yds to the NCaro 18 Mitch Trubisky fumbled, recovered by Stanf Dylan JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
7 plays · 2 yds · 1:0461% → 64%
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
39.3%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Michael Rector for 12 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
38.9%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
39.3%
STANFORD Penalty, Offensive Holding (Reagan Williams) to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
39.9%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Bryce LoveSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-1
40.9%
Ryan Burns run for 4 yds to the NCaro 11, STANFORD Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Ryan Burns) to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
36.1%
Conrad Ukropina 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:2240% → 37%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
39.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 8 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
39.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 15
OWN 33
0
36.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 33
0
36.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:4439% → 37%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.3%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
39.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+21
38.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 21 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
41.3%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+28
40.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 28 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
43.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-3
43.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 13
OPP 34
0
39.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin Proehl, broken up by Alameen MurphySimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 13
OPP 34
+51
37.3%
Nick Weiler 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14FG
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:4265% → 69%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+59
35.3%
Bryce Love run for 59 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
32.7%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 14Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-5
32.5%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (A.T. Hall) to the NCaro 19Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 0
OPP 19
-7
31.7%
Ryan Burns sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 26, STANFORD Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Ryan Burns) to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 26
0
34.0%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Francis OwusuSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 0
OPP 26
+43
30.8%
Conrad Ukropina 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:1431% → 39%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.9%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
30.9%
T.J. Logan run for 8 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
31.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
32.6%
T.J. Logan run for 12 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
33.4%
Trubisky, Mitch pass incomplete to Cunningham, Jordan (Meeks, Quenton), PENALTY STANFORD, pass interference (Meeks, Quenton) 15 yards to the STANFORD26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
34.3%
Mitch Trubisky run for no gain to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
34.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+6
32.1%
Mitch Trubisky run for 6 yds to the Stanf 20Similar
Q3 6:56
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
38.8%
Nick Weiler 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2366% → 65%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.7%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
33.6%
Ryan Burns run for 4 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
33.4%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
35.2%
Jake Bailey punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 2:5137% → 64%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
36.6%
Mitch Trubisky run for 13 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
39.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 11 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
40.5%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+11
40.5%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
42.2%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+6
42.2%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
42.2%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the Stanf 15Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
42.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 10 yds to the Stanf 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.0%
Jordon Brown 5 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0843% → 41%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
57.1%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
56.5%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
58.5%
Ryan Burns pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 5 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
58.7%
Jake Bailey punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Austin Proehl at the NCaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19INT TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:1759% → 35%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
59.1%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+19
34.6%
Dallas Lloyd 19 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:3035% → 33%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.1%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+24
34.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 24 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
39.2%
Mitch Trubisky run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
39.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+5
38.5%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+16
39.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 16 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST down, STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Solomon Thomas) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
42.2%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
42.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-13
39.6%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Bobby Okereke for a loss of 13 yards to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 22
OPP 40
0
32.7%
Tom Sheldon punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 7:0772% → 91%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
28.3%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 5 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
27.4%
Bryce Love run for 12 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
25.7%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Francis Owusu for 41 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
21.9%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+7
21.6%
Ryan Burns run for 7 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
21.2%
Ryan Burns run for 4 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
18.9%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+3
19.8%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST down, NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) ( Yards) to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.0%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
14.8%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
15.9%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
18.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 3:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
8.9%
Conrad Ukropina 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:0512% → 7%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
11.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Quenton MeeksSimilar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.7%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Solomon Thomas) to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
8.6%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Solomon Thomas for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
7.1%
Tom Sheldon punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jay Tyler at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2295% → 96%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
5.2%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
3.8%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+1
3.6%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
4.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 56 yds, downed at the NCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
10 plays · 97 yds · 1:056% → 34%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+13
5.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 13 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
5.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 6 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+6
6.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 6 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+44
6.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 44 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
10.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, broken up by Jordan PerezSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
8.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+27
7.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 27 yds to the Stanf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
11.3%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 2Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
10.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Jordan Cunningham, broken up by Frank BuncomSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.1%
Bug Howard 2 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
5.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:13
Dallas Lloyd 19 Yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-24.5
TD · Q4 0:25
Bug Howard 2 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+23.4
TD · Q3 2:09
Jordon Brown 5 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)
+21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com